MLB Offseason Review (part 1)

Hey folks, I'm back for a little mid-winter baseball talk.  Your team didn't make the playoffs in the NFL?  Hope springs anew for your stickball team!  Down in the dumps because the NHL greed contest is keeping them off the ice?  Help me look forward to the eventual ice melt and the sunny days beyond!  So, let's recap the offseason in chronological order, starting nowhere better than at the end!

- San Francisco wins the World Series in 4 games.

Obviously, as you read here, I had San Fran winning that series, but not that easily. After Verlander got knocked around in game 1 - beat by Barry Zito, no less - the Giants had the Series by the short 'n curlies, with advantageous pitching matchups in games 2 and 4, and a roughly even shot in game 3. The Tigers offense was never allowed off the ground, and it was over.
Congrats to San Francisco for their 2nd title in 3 years.

- Miguel Cabrera wins the AL MVP over Mike Trout



I think the wrong guy won. Now, don't get me wrong, Cabrera was a deserving candidate, winning a trifecta of league titles that bear a significant amount of emotional cache among baseball fans and media alike. He had a historical season. But so did Trout. Trout matched or bested Cabrera in traditional batting numbers - .326/399/.564 vs Miggy's .330/.393/.606. The differences there between them are a matter of 3 hits in the season, or 6 walks, or 24 total bases. These are largely negligible on the breadth of a season. The total base discrepancy is a bit more significant, though Cabrera's home run advantage accounts for much of it. What tipped it for me was the addition of speed and defense in Trout's game over Cabrera. Trout lead the league with 49 stolen bases, contrasted with Cabrera's 4, not to mention the impact of any extra bases taken because of his speed, which are not so easily measured here numerically. In terms of defense, numerical measures are much less precise, though Trout consistently rated as well above average at a premium defensive position, i.e. 11.0 UZR in CF, and Cabrera was well below average at a less premium position, i.e. -9.9 UZR at 3B. For me, those things outweigh Cabrera's power advantage and RBI totals.

- Toronto Blue Jays sign 3B Maicer Izturis.
Chicago Cubs sign RHP Scott Baker.
Detroit Tigers sign OF Torii Hunter

None of these moves is particularly earth-shaking. Izturis is a nice complementary piece, especially as a backup infielder. Solid defense, hits for average, decent speed. He's a useful player. Baker's a decent gamble for the money he was given ($5.5M w/incentives). I had hoped he would return to the Twins on a similar make-good sort of deal, but I'm also not disappointed to see him go. It's a good move for him to go to the NL, and it's good for the Cubs to get a potentially tradeable asset at a reasonable price if he pans out. I'm generally unable to knock a one-year deal too badly, and this one's OK. Torii moves into Detroit's outfield as an upgrade over whoever he ends up replacing - he's better on both sides of the ball than Boesch or Rhymes or Delmon or whoever else Detroit put out there aside from Austin Jackson. It may be worth a win, maybe two, to the Tigers next year, which will likely keep them atop the division.

- Twins trade OF Denard Span to Nationals for MiLB RHP Alex Meyer

 This was a very interesting trade across the board.  The Twins shipped their most valuable trade chip in terms of player skill + contract status to Washington, who returned a first-round-caliber arm.  For Washington, this fills their need for a bona-fide CF and lead-off man.  Span's career .357 OBP fits well at the top of the lineup, with 20 SB speed to go with it.  This allows them to keep Werth and Harper on the corners, where their skills fit better, and keeps them from playing Morse or some similar statue-like defender in the outfield.  Their pitching staff will certainly see some benefit from this move.  It's the sort of move you want your team to make if your team is of playoff caliber.  For the Twins, it's a move that actually gives them hope.  Span, while a useful player and a popular one, to boot, was not going to be instrumental in this team's return to the playoffs based on his contract and age.  Better to move him now, while at close to his peak value, than to wait for him to potentially get hurt again, or decline physically, or any number of other things.  In return, they pick up a power arm and potentially-legitimate top-line starter, which is the sort of thing the system has been bereft of for a decade - not since Liriano's emergence has there been a pitcher with this much talent in the Twins' system.  Of course, as a prospect, he's not a sure thing, and there are any number of things that could go wrong before he arrives in the majors, but even then, it's these sort of high-upside gambles that an irrelevant team needs to take to attempt to return to relevance.  If he works out, it will more than worth the cost.

- Braves trade RHP Tommy Hanson to Angels for RHP Jordan Walden

This is an interesting trade for much different reasons than the above one.  Both teams are, in effect, selling low on an asset here that once may have been thought to be an integral part of their team's future.  Hanson looked like a legit #2 starter for the Braves before shoulder issues sapped his velocity and, with it, his effectiveness.  A trade like this signifies that the Braves don't think he can be rehabilitated, and are trying to get while the getting's good.  A move to the AL for Hanson doesn't likely bode well for his numbers, but the Angels sorely needed starting pitching after so many of last year's rotation have vacated the premesis (Greinke, Big Erv, Haren), and they needed to take a gamble that he could recapture at least some of his magic.  If the shoulder recovers, he's the sort of durable guy that can go 200 innings easily.  For the Braves, I'm more curious why they wanted Walden moreso than getting rid of Hanson.  The Braves have a wealth of young pitching ready for the majors and only so many rotation spots to give to them, so Hanson was clearly an excess to be moved.  The bullpen, however, with Kimbrel as its crown jewel, was a strong element to their squad.  I would've thought an outfielder or 3B or prospect depth would've been more their target, but it seems that having Walden across from Venters in front of Kimbrel will allow Fredi to play matchups more and keep Venters' innings down this coming year after he was clearly feeling the effects of overuse from '10.  This trade will show its returns soon as both will be key members of their teams' '12 campaigns.

That brings us up to the end of November - December review coming soon.

The Excruciating Road To A Title: Why Everyone Should Respect The Heat’s 2012 Championship

It all started in the 2004-2005 season, a year in which Dwyane Wade pleaded for some help, and the team responded in kind giving up a moderately bright future in exchange for one of the most dominant players in NBA history, the mammoth Shaquille O’Neal. The trade included the versatile and still young Lamar Odom, Caron Butler, Brian Grant, and a first round pick. While the trade forced the Heat to give away a moderately promising future, what they got back ended up being the key piece to a title. Unfortunately, it wasn’t meant to be that year as Wade went on to get injured in the Eastern Conference finals against the Detroit Pistons, and Detroit came back to beat the Heat in game seven 88-82.

         However the next season saw Dwyane Wade achieve his vindication. The Heat re-upped their lineup acquiring Jason Williams, Antoine Walker, James Posey, and Gary Payton. When O’Neal went down with an injury colliding with Ron Artest, the Heat began to struggle. As the team languished, head coach Stan Van Gundy resigned his post for what were supposedly family reasons (although many have speculated otherwise) Pat Riley stepped in to take the reigns. In what some analysts call possibly the greatest playoff performance in NBA history, Dwyane Wade rallied the Heat back to the Eastern Conference finals and redeemed himself by aiding the team to a defeat of the defending Eastern Conference champion Pistons to lead the team into the NBA finals. Once there, the Heat proceeded to drop the first two games to a formidable Dallas Mavericks team. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter of game 3 when the Heat turned the tide, and never looked back. Riding a scorching hot Wade averaging 34.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.67 steals, and 1.00 blocks per game the Heat performed one of the NBA finals greatest comebacks rallying back to win the next four games in a row. Finally they had claimed their elusive title, and the gamble for Shaq had paid off.

         However the next season was not so fruitful. Injuries plagued the team, and while they won the division, they floundered into the 4^th seed in the playoffs and were quickly dispatched in the first round by the Bulls 4-0. Things only got worse from there. The following season much of the championship squad was gone. Wade suffered another injury-plagued season, Pat Riley relinquished his role as head coach to have knee surgery, Alonzo Mourning tore a patellar tendon and missed the rest of the season, and a very vocally disgruntled Shaquille O’Neal moaned and groaned his way into a requested trade to the Phoenix Suns. Despite the team winning him a title, and trading him as he asked to be, to the team he asked to be traded to, Shaq still found it necessary to publicly berate the organization and fans before leaving and after leaving Miami. A great consolation after the miserable season, Miami netted the second pick in the NBA draft, but after watching Derrick Rose go off the board in the first pick to the Chicago Bulls who had eliminated them from the playoffs in embarrassing fashion the Heat drafted the highly touted Michael Beasley, who needless to say, had an underwhelming NBA career in Miami while Rose quickly became a superstar.

         Heat fans would spend the next two years wondering what they would do to get back to being a championship caliber team. The fans knew that time was running short; because with a player like Dwyane Wade, you had to show you were willing to be competitive if you wanted to keep an all-star of his caliber around. Wade in turn was making sure everybody else knew that he wouldn’t be signing an extension until the team did just that. The organization was not sending encouraging signs. While Wade’s contract was due to expire in 2010, Pat Riley made it clear that until the 2010 offseason the Heat would be making no major changes to become more competitive. This started a kind of game of chicken if you will, with Wade publicly threatening to leave, and Riley constantly reminding everybody he wouldn’t make a move until his contract was up in 2010. The whole city held their breath for two years wondering if their beloved superstar would even be around by the time the organization was ready to move on anything.

         By the time the 2010 offseason rolled around, Heat fans were in a panic. Off the court problems with his wife and kids made it look incredibly likely that Wade would end up in Chicago along with the superstar they missed out on, Derrick Rose, and the team that had handed them some considerable heartache. Wade’s kids were in Chicago, Wade himself was from Chicago, and there was little doubt his presence in the windy city would make the Bulls an instant competitor. He was going through a very messy divorce that could have seen his wife getting custody of his children, and moving them to their home in Chicago. Wade had recently left Converse to join Michael Jordan’s Jumpman brand, his divorce proceeding were getting messy, and the prospect was growing everyday the Heat stood silent that Wade would end up going north to be with his kids in the Windy City. To make matters worse, Beasley was traded to Minnesota, and the roster was stripped of almost every player, making a non-competitive team even less so.

         Stealing the headlines from anything Heat fans were going through at the time was what was happening in Cleveland. LeBron James was tired of waiting. The efforts to bring in Shaq and Antwan Jamison failed to take the Cavs over the hump, and it was clear that they needed to make a big move in order to keep King James near his hometown. The problem was, nobody wanted to go near his hometown. Amare Stoudamire didn’t want to go to Cleveland. Chris Bosh didn’t want to go to Cleveland. In fact, none of the big names wanted to go to Cleveland. As it became obvious that nobody was going to Ohio to help LeBron, the realization started to sink in. LeBron had to leave to get help. A national outcry began for a city plagued with losing teams that was getting ready to lose a homegrown talent that was the best in his sport. Lost in the shuffle, was any empathy for another city getting ready to lose its most beloved superstar. Unlike the outcry for James to stay in Cleveland, the nation was looking forward to seeing Dwyane Wade playing side-by-side Derrick Rose in a Bulls uniform. Nobody had a tear of compassion for the Magic City.

         Then came the key domino that changed everything. Pat Riley had signed Chris Bosh. While it seemed innocuous to most, I was telling everybody, the King is coming to South Florida. Of course, most people thought he was going to New York, or Chicago, or taking the multitude of other offers. For a while as a longtime Heat fan myself, I was forced to play the role of the rabidly insane homer in order to say what I thought was the overwhelming likelihood. How did I know based on the Bosh signing alone? Once Bosh signed in Miami, it was clear Dwyane Wade was going to finally resign. With the Heat having dumped an entire roster’s worth of salary, and two major superstar already playing in Miami, if Lebron wanted the surest shot at a title there was no way he could risk allowing Pat Riley to use the rest of his cash to put a team around them that could lock him out of a title again no matter where he went. They had the money, they had the superstars, and either Riley was going to spend that cash on James, or he would spend that cash on a supporting cast that could stop him. There was no collusion involved, no under the table talks necessary. There was simply no other choice LeBron could make that had a higher probability of success once those two guys were together on a team with that much cash left to spend. It was either join them, or take the chance of getting beat by them. He simply couldn’t take the chance. It was really that simple and obvious for me. While opting against simply making the announcement on his website as he previously planned, he took ESPN up on their less well thought out plan to announce it on national television. Thus, the decision was born. It was a good decision, announced by a really, really bad one.

         In what was supposed to be a very normal and ordinarily predictable practice for the Heat marketing team, a pep rally was scheduled to announce the formation of the historically formed team that was a good two to three years in the making. The city rejoiced. Their beloved superstar had stayed after years of threatening to leave, and offseason events that made it an incredibly likely scenario. They had obtained a great all-star caliber big man alongside him in Chris Bosh, and most of all, the King was coming. In a city like Miami, it was inevitable you would see the party of all parties celebrating this. Unfortunately, what was supposed to be a local event was also broadcast on the national media. With multiple cities scorned having missed the prospect of obtaining the best player in basketball, the media saw the perfect reason to create a villain, and a pep rally that was supposed to let the steam out of years of panic and worry, turned into a rub-it-in-your-face festival overnight.

         The newly formed big three did something that, had it not been for the disdain involved in everything, should have been widely applauded. They did the rare professional sports act of taking less money in order to win a title. This was wasted on the public’s perception of the Heat becoming the NBA’s bad guys. The following season that brought enormous amounts of pressure like the sports world had never seen, and in the face of another disappearing act by LBJ in the finals, as well as a Dallas Mavericks team I had unwittingly speculated earlier in the season was the deepest team in the league, the Mavs defeated the Heat in one of the sweetest revenges I had ever seen in modern sports. They had finally gotten them back for their incredible collapse at the hands of Dwyane Wade and Shaq in 2006 to win their first title. That offseason, the critics went to town on the franchise, and Lebron took as big a mass media beating one could ever take. The city of Miami got caught in the crossfire as again, little sympathy was shown and the city was vilified alongside him.

         With another offseason to round out the kinks, Riley turned his attention to the bench and solidified the rest of the team a bit. With a healthy Mike Miller returning, the drafting of Norris Cole, and the acquisition of Shane Battier, Miami was much more ready to be title bound, and that’s exactly what they were. Though people doubted their ability to win without an established and proven center, the smarts of Erik Spoelstra and the versatility of their players helped them defy the odds. They proved they could play shut down perimeter defense against Carmelo Anthony and the Knicks in a series that saw Amare Stoudamire and Jeremy Lin on milk cartons. They proved they could beat a big physical team with greats bigs and lots of depth like the Pacers, They proved they could handle a team with a great point guard and lots of big men like the Celtics, and reinforced their ability to stop a team with an intimidating frontcourt and big time superstars in the Oklahoma City Thunder en route to LeBron James & Chris Bosh’s first NBA titles, and it was additions like Mike Miller and Shane Battier who made all the difference in the end. They answered every question they could possibly answer. If you can’t respect what Heat fans had to go through to get here, and what the players had to do to earn that title, what in the world of sports could you possibly respect?

FIFA Ballon d'or

As we come to the close of year 5 of the Messi/ Cristiano Ronaldo debate I figured I’d throw in my 2 cents.  Not to try to determine who is better, you can debate that until the cows come home, but more as a reminder of how ridiculously lucky we are to have both of these brilliant players at the height of their abilities at the same time.  And I don’t mean brilliant in the British way as in “wow, that gravy is brilliant”, I mean brilliant as in, they are doing things that I have not seen before and will only see again in half-as-good copy cat ways.

The Ballon d’or is very rarely a contest.  The very fact that it is decided upon by journalists makes it suspect to serious questioning, but for the sake of argument let’s forget that.  Instead, let’s look at who has won the award that could be considered as good as these two and then let’s look at their competition that year.  Keep in mind a couple of things:  1.The Ballon d’or used to be only available to players playing in Europe, since 2010 it’s been combined with a FIFA award so it can now go to anyone playing anywhere in the world.  2.  The award almost never goes to a defensive player much less a goal keeper.  Lev Yashin is the only keeper to ever bring the award home.  3.  If you are the best offensive player on the team that wins the European cup/Champions league, you are a shoe in regardless of what other players may have accomplished.

If you don't know about Lev Yashin you seriously need to look him up.

Of the players who have won the award since the inception of the Champions League I would consider Ronaldinho, Zidane, Ronaldo, and Van Basten at the same level as Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.

Let’s start with Marco Van Basten, one of the few players to ever win this award three times and, many would argue, if it hadn’t been for injury one of the best players to ever play the game.  In 1992 he led Milan to their first Serie A title in four years which would allow them to qualify for the Champions League (remember when only champions got to participate in it?).  He then fought an ankle injury for 2 years but ended up retiring when he couldn’t overcome it.

His main competition in 1992 was Hristo Stoichkov the Bulgarian who would eventually win the trophy in 1994.  But Stoichkov had good seasons here and there, not a sustained career where he was always good like Van Basten.  He also had the misfortune of playing for Bulgaria so his national career would never leave the ground.

Other notable players that year:  Dennis Bergkamp, also from the Netherlands, Tomas Hassler, Peter Schmeichel and the Laudrup brothers.  All of these players are fantastic, but not as good as Van Basten, Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo.

Next on the list is Ronaldo Luiz Nazario de Lima, otherwise known as the fat Ronaldo.  His story is fairly similar to Van Basten’s in that he dominated when he was young but his memory will be tarnished by debilitating injuries.  From 1994-96 he ripped up the Eredivisie and suffered his first bad injury (half of a season), he was then bought by Barcelona and had one of those seasons (1996-97) that you should tell your grandkids about.  He then moved to Inter Milan where he spent one and a half years making defenders look silly and about three years injured.  During this spell he won the Ballon d’or (1997) and came in second by a single point in 1996, losing to Matthias Sammer who had the benefit of playing for Germany who had won the 1996 Euro.

You remember Matthias Sammer right...right.

Zinedine Zidane won the award in 1998 while playing with Juventus.  As a midfielder he scored remarkably few goals but had technical ability that few people can match.  He was aided by France winning the World Cup in 1998 but never pleased the journalists enough to win it again.

After recovering from his injury (and winning the world cup for Brazil) Ronaldo moved to Real Madrid where he would team up with Ballon d’or rivals Roberto Carlos and Zidane.  The most interesting part of his career in the Ballon d’or is how he and Zidane only had one season where they both could have won it.  In 2002 Ronaldo led Brazil to World Cup glory and then had a remarkable season for Madrid so he won the award, Zidane also had a remarkable season for Madrid but was injured for most of the World Cup which prevented him from getting votes he otherwise would have.  Again, one of the few situations where there was a legitimate competition between two great players.

His hair had nothing to do the winning.

Ronaldinho simply had no peers during a two year stint at the top during 2005 and 2006.  His ball control was almost unparalleled during this time and he was able to use it to take over games and show us things not seen before.  Unfortunately no one else could really compete with him during this time.  Thierry Henry and Andriy Shevchenko are the two players that got closest to him during that time but neither of them will be spoken of in the same breath as the other greats that we’re talking about here.

So I guess that’s my point here.  Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo are amazing players, better than Stoichkov, better than Kaka, better than Deco, Baggio, Sammer or Figo.  And they’ve both been doing it for five years now.  They rarely get injured, are always battling for trophies and each have their staunch defenders who stand up and say they’re the best.

What might be the strangest part is that they could still do this for another 3-4 years barring injury.  Cristiano Ronaldo is 27, Messi 25 and to tell you the truth I don’t see another up and coming player of their caliber.

Do you?

NTN 2012

2012 Theory on NFL Success

This is my third year in determining the NFL Theory of Nate (NTN).  I am currently ranking the NFL season of 2012. There are a couple of changes from last year, in which I correctly picked 9 of the 12 NFL teams to make the playoffs. 

Here is a synopsis of how I come up with the rankings:

20/20/20 – I rate three sections of an organization on a scale from 1-20.  1 constitutes a team that needs an immediate concentration of improvement for that position.  20 represent the best at their position for their time.  I did some research on the greatest collection of NFL teams, and the average score for a Super Bowl Champion was 17.3.  The average score for a Super Bowl runner-up was a 15.7.  The greatest team of all-time according to NTN was the 2007 New England Patriots with a score of 19.3.(20,19,19)  Eli Manning beat them.  The worst team to make a Super Bowl in the NTN era were the 1994 San Diego Chargers with a score of 10.6. (9,9,14) ( The NTN era starts in 1985)

The first section is Quarterback Presentation.  This rates everything including: a quarterback’s arm strength and accuracy, to leading his teammates to victory, and how capable they can be the face of the franchise.  I believe that this is the most important position in sports, and therefore the difference between having a 1 or a 20 can mean multiple championships, and larger revenue streams. 

The second section is Front Office Efficiency.  This rates everything including: game day preparation, media and fan involvement, draft and scouting success, motivational tactics, and general managing skills.  A front office that can provide a large number in this category can give teams the expectation of a super bowl appearance year in and year out, and give any organization credibility with their arrival. 

The final section is defensive schematics.  This rates everything including: talent level, discipline, awareness, evolution of defensive tactics, turnover capability, and leadership skills.  A team that can shut down both aspects of an opposing offense, while giving their team the best opportunity to win a game is going to rate very highly in this category.

QB

1 – Immediate opportunity to improve.  Playoffs are likely impossible.

5 – Capable of flashes of success.  Should improve position as soon as possible.

10 – Solid starter.  Playoffs wouldn’t be a surprise.  Super Bowl would.

15 – Team can begin to have Super Bowl expectations.  Can continue with this guy.

20 – Super Bowl or bust.  This guy makes team and organization better.

Coach/Front Office

1 – Fired no later than season’s end.  Lost both players and organizations faith.  Move on.

5 – Capable of winning games.  May hit on draft picks periodically.  Keeps job for 2+ yrs

10 – Doesn’t give away football games.  Good eye for talent.  Playoff potential.

15 – Winner.  Gets to the playoffs about 50-75% of the time.  Teams covet these types.

20 – These guys can be face of organization.  They leave on their own terms.  Instant credibility.

Defense

1 – A mess everywhere.  Gives up both big plays and long drives. Doesn’t change games.

5 – Might help the offense, but generally hurts organization.  No long-term value.

10 – Can stop most QB’s from great success.  Must game plan for some of the talent.

15 – Quality and depth.  Force’s offensive to make many adjustments.  Can win games.

20 – Very difficult to move ball against.  Terrific vs both pass and run.  Generates turnovers and scores points.

QB Rating – A 20 rating typifies as Joe Montana in his prime, 1 is JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf and/or Akili Smith after a few seasons in the league. Even their potential should generate as a 2+, because technically, Russell really did have a cannon.

Front Office – 20 is the Jerry Jones/Jimmy Johnson tandem of the 90’s, 1 is Cincinnati through all those issues in the past decade.

Defensive personality – The teams that can make a QB and a Front Office look like Ryan Leaf on the Bengals score a 20, and the teams that need a 12^th defensive player to tackle Marshawn Lynch get a 1. 

^ designates upward potential

v designates a decline in quality

AFC East

1. New England Patriots

Q 18v F 17 D 11 = 15.3 Super Bowl quality

2. Buffalo Bills

Q 10 F 8 D 12 = 10.0 The NFL Average

3. New York Jets

Q 7 F 8 D 11v = 8.7 Something needs to change quickly

4. Miami Dolphins

Q 5^ F 9 D 10^ = 8.0 Getting better quickly (Last year 5.7)

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

Q 14 F 19 D 16 = 16.3 Front Office keeps them great year after year

2. Baltimore Ravens

Q 12 F 17 D 17 = 15.3 Could also easily make the Super Bowl

3. Cincinnati Bengals

Q 12^ F 12^ D 12 = 12.0 Drafted very well recently, upper echelon soon?

4. Cleveland Browns

Q 6^ F 5v D 7 = 6.0 A long ways to go toward respectability

AFC West

1. Denver Broncos

Q 18 F 15^ D 15 = 16.0 Made the biggest improvement from last year (11.6)

2. Kansas City Chiefs

Q 8 F 13v D13v = 11.3 Close to the playoffs, better get a QB soon. 

3. San Diego Chargers

Q 14 F 6v D 12 = 10.7 The FO has ruined this team’s opportunity for stability.

4. Oakland Raiders

Q 10 F 3 D 8 = 7.0 It’s getting better here, but no Super Bowl in short-term.

AFC South

1. Houston Texans

Q 13 F 17^ D 14 = 14.7 We’ll see what happens when they play the 15+ teams.

2. Indianapolis Colts

Q 10^ F10^ D 12 = 10.7 Could have a 20 in the near future...

3. Tennessee Titans

Q 8^ F 9 D 10 = 9.0 Hard to recognize an identity; better get Locker right.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

Q 4v F 4v D 6 = 4.7 No hope for years to come.

Playoff 6

1. Pittsburgh Steelers 16.3

2. Denver Broncos 16.0

3. New England Patriots 15.3

4. Houston Texans 14.7

5. Baltimore Ravens 15.3

6. Cincinnati Bengals 12.0

10 week summary (AFC): I could see any of the top 5 teams making it to the Super Bowl.  After 10 games though, I sure overrated the Kansas City Chiefs QB and Defense. I think Denver’s FO has been the best so far this year, they won’t miss Willis McGahee one bit.

NFC East

1. New York Giants

Q 17 F 17 D 17 = 17.0 At the peak of their powers.

2. Philadelphia Eagles

Q 13v F 15 D 14 = 14.0 Could make the playoffs.

3. Dallas Cowboys

Q 11v F 11v D 13^ = 11.7 At a crossroads in my opinion.

4. Washington Redskins

Q 8^ F 9 D 10 = 9.0 If I’m right, RG3 will be +15 as early as next season.

NFC North

1. Green Bay Packers

Q 18^ F 18 D 11 = 15.7 Defense starting to show cracks.

2. Chicago Bears

Q 13 F 13 D 17^ = 14.3 Hard to believe, but their defense could get better.

3. Detroit Lions

Q 13 F 10 D 12 = 11.7 Jim Schwartz isn’t likeable, but he can win football games.

4. Minnesota Vikings

Q 7^ F 9 D 12 = 9.3 Ponder isn’t the worst thing; FO needs to find some depth.

NFC West

1. San Francisco 49ers

Q 9 F 17 D 18^ = 14.7 Imagine if they could’ve signed Peyton.

2. Arizona Cardinals

Q 6v F 14 D 14^ = 11.3 Wasting all this NFL talent without a legit NFL starter

3. Seattle Seahawks

Q 6^ F 12 D 15^ = 11.0 Wilson appears to win job, likeability potential sky high.

4. Saint Louis Rams

Q 8^ F 8^ D 8 = 8.0 Finally after years of substandard quality, they’re on the upswing.

NFC South

1. Atlanta Falcons

Q 15^ F 18^ D 13^ = 15.3 The new Patriots?  Julio Jones trade was brilliant.

2. New Orleans Saints

Q 19v F 13 D 11 = 14.3 FO messed up big time, too talented of a team to scam like that.

3. Carolina Panthers

Q 11^ F 11^ D 10v = 10.7 Proved me wrong w/ Newton pick, time to fix defense.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Q 11^ F 8^ D 11 = 10.0 Schiano was a sneaky pick, Freeman could join elite.

Playoff 6

1. New York Giants 17.0

2. Green Bay Packers 15.7

3. Atlanta Falcons 15.3

4. San Francisco 49ers 14.7

5. New Orleans Saints 14.3

6. Chicago Bears 14.3

10 week summary (NFC): Very balanced conference, but no one stands out.  I assumed the Giants would.  Vikings, Buccaneers and Seahawks all exceeding expectations, or possibly proving a flawed theory.  Winning with special teams and power running games, while however infrequent in today’s NFL, could cause my theory to implode.  All three teams have great ground attacks.  Carolina’s FO was my worst pick of the year; trade one of your running backs! May have overrated Philly a bit, but this also doesn’t account for confidence of which the Eagles have none.

Playoff predictability: I’d say 10 out of 12.  I’m not sure if the Saints can overcome that start, and the Bengals could lose out to the Colts or Chargers.  Giants vs Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl?  I don’t think it’s too far fetched, as long as Big Ben comes back to play. 

Fun Fact:  The Buffalo Bills that lost 4 Super Bowls in a row?  17.3,17.3,17, and 16.6.  They would run the roast in today’s NFL!  

NHL Fun

I don’t really touch on the NHL that frequently, but with there being a lock out and everything, I thought it would be a great time to include hockey in discussions.  What better way then to pick a greatest all-time team?  There’s literally hundreds of good hockey players to choose from, and with three lines, it’s a little deeper than choosing line-ups vs. the NBA. 

G Dominik Hasek – For me the greatest.  Had some terrible teams until he got to Detroit.

G Curtis Joseph – Roy wouldn’t have the humility to be a 2, CuJo did it once.

Line 1

C Wayne Gretzky – Have to.

LW Pavel Bure – Fastest I’ve ever seen.

RW Theo Fleury– Always been a big fan and creates an all speed line.

Line 2

C Mario Lemieux – See what I mean?

LW Kevin Stevens – Might as well.

RW Jaromir Jagr – Complete the dynasty

Line 3

C Steve Yzerman – Extremely underrated. 6^th most pts all time.

LW Luc Robitaille – Just scored goals.

RW Alexander Ovechkin – Beast on this line.

Grind Line

C Bob Probert – Never saw him lose.

LW Derek Boogaard – Miss this man.

RW Tie Domi – The trifecta of animals.

Defensive Pairing 1

D Ray Bourque – This will be insane.

D Chris Chelios – The other half of insanity.

Defensive Pairing 2

D Paul Coffey – So many good all-time defensemen.

D Phil Housley – My Minnesota touch.

Defensive Pairing 3

D Bobby Orr – Because I feel that people would be upset if I didn’t.

D Rob Blake – The Stevie Y of defensemen.

You can see when I became a hockey fan, and when I lost interest in the sport.  In my defense though, those twenty years from the early 1980’s until the end of the 20^th century, there were some fantastic hockey players, and some really great teams.  I’m still missing Messier, Leetch, Roenick, MacInnis, Roy, Belfour, among many others.  What a great generation.   

Wolves vs Magic

Wolves will look to end two losing streaks at the Target Center tonight (7:10CST).

The Wolves have not defeated the Magic at the Target Center since November 11th 2006.  George Bush was President.

Magic have defeated the Wolves in their last seven meetings.  Dwight Howard played in all of those games.

Blurbs:

Pek will go against Nikola Vucevic in the paint, Montenegro Style. Expect them both to, yes, GO HARD in the paint.

Magic will be without Veteran Hedu Turkoglu and Al Harrington.  Jameer Nelson has a strained hamstring and groin and will most likely not see the floor.

Arron Afflalo is coming off 28 points in a loss to the Bulls.

Purdue's own E'Twaun Moore will start in place on Nelson.

AK47 averages 14ppg against the Magic, his highest total against any NBA team.

Wolves may have a harder time rebounding than against Brooklyn (46-30) as Glen (Big Baby) Davis will be playing motivated with the departure of Howard.

Keys:

Play disciplined - limit turnovers, and don't let injury ridden team stay in the game late.  Players like Afflalo will   make it hurt.

Stay Big - Going at Glen Davis and putting him in early foul trouble will force Orlando into a game-plan that more than likely just doesn't exist.

THIS GAME IS IMPORTANT. 

We need to take early season match-ups such as these with a sense of urgency.  Win now without a fully healthy Roy, Rubio, and Love and we won't need to catch up later.

United We Run.

HOWL.

Some Brooklyn Recap

Wolves turned some heads Monday as they battled back from 22 to defeat the Brooklyn Nets for the first time at Barclay's Arena. 

96 - 96 with a little over a minute, Alexi Shved gets a bucket.  Wolves get a steal, JJ hits a flying Pek in the lane for a layup.  Wolves get another stop, Chase nails a dagger to make the score 103 - 96 with 50 seconds remaining in the game.

The fans remained in their seats and were not a factor in the final two minutes of play.  

"..In the second half, we just talked to each other and did not worry about the losing quarter. We had to just improve our game because since the beginning of the season we had good stretches and bad stretches, but we have to stay in the game with consistency." 

AK47 (16 points, 10 boards, and 6 assists in 32 Minutes)

JJ Barea, who was questionable with a concussion, played 29 minutes (6 points, 6 assists) after the team was unsure about his status (concussion).

JJ will be huge both on the court as a pivotal role as a play-maker but also in the locker room as one of the teams Veteran Leaders.

Daunte Cunningham played Tolliver like hustle minutes with countless additions that will not show in the box score.

Wolves vs Nets

The Wolves will showcase their depth tonight in Brooklyn. 


Still Hibernating:

Rubio and Love are still recovering and hope for them to see the floor in by mid-December.

Rubio is set to start cutting in practice.

Love has not hinted that the set 6 - 8 recovery period has fluctuated.

Brandon Roy, as to be expected, has not caught up with the pace of the league he said goodbye to just last  year.  He had 5 turnovers and did not take any shots, in the first half, of Sunday's loss to the Raptors.
 
 Just Pups:

Alexey Shved, Will Conroy, and Malcolm Lee will all see extended minutes.


Wildcats to Wolves:

Chase Budinger and Derrick Williams will need to show why the feline species isn't all that bad on the hardwood either.  Derrick starts are sure to be limited as the year moves on and needs to show he has the ability to be a make plays when called upon.

Brooklyn:

Gerald Wallace and Josh Childress are inactive.

Second game played in new Barclay's Center.

Defeated Raptors 107 - 100 Saturday.

Wolves must keep their Alpha-Males (Pek, AK47,Stiemsma) out of foul trouble. 

Contain Deron Williams or he'll go all Kyle Lowry on us. (22-7-5)

HOWL

Spurs

Anybody got any nicknames for the Spurs?  Preferably degrading..

Brooklyn

Basketball is back in Brooklyn, if you were not already aware. 

No reason the Nets should let this remain close, but MAN, Melo is lickin' his chops to play under this kind of atmosphere. 

Nets will compete all year which will add some more Flavor that is lacking out East.

Finally....

@xZaCh

Steve Nash

I want to come clean, I'm not going to be upset if the Lakers win the title.  I will continue to despise the Lakers as a whole, but, to see Steve win a title would make an inevitable Heat - Lakers final bearable. 

Worth noting that Batum has so far earned hiz dollazz.  Him playing well all season is sure to leave Wolves fans with a bitter tasting 'what could have been' Halloween Candy.

TrickOrTreat.
Zach

The World Series

I know, I know.  Game 1's already in the books.  Let's forget that for just a moment.....  And forget that I got both LCS wrong, while we're at it.

Starting Pitching
Verlander, Fister, Sanchez, Scherzer
vs
Zito, Bumgarner, Vogelsong, Cain

Advantage: Tigers

Verlander-Zito is probably the mismatch of the series.  Zito has been the pitching equivalent of Vernon Wells the past few years, and yet here he is, starting game 1 of the World Series with a possibility of getting a second ring.  It's crazy, and yet here it is.  Verlander, however, has been the most dominant pitcher of this postseason, and the potential to see him three times in this series, however slim, really tips the scales.  Vogelsong has been a revelation in his own right, and he's got the edge in his game, but that's the only one where SF has the decided advantage.  Cain is amazing, but Scherzer has been smouldering, himself.  Bumgarner has all the talent in the world, but hasn't shown it of late.  It's a close one, but the Tigers have to take this.

Verlander >>>> Zito
Fister > Bumgarner
Sanchez << Vogelsong
Scherzer < Cain

(And of course, Verlander gets torched game 1.  Hooray small sample sizes!)

Bullpen
Valverde, Benoit, Coke, Dotel
vs
Romo, Affeldt, Casilla, Lincecum

Advantage: Giants

I simply cannot get behind a team that relies on Valverde right now.  I've been shouting from the rooftops that he's not that good ever since his days in Houston, but I didn't see an implosion like this coming.  Conversely, Lincecum moving to the pen has strengthened this unit to the point of impenetrability.  Brian Wilson?  Who needs him?

Lineup
Jackson 8, Infante 4, Cabrera 5, Fielder 3, Young 7, Peralta 6, Garcia 9, Avila 2
vs
Pagan 8, Scutaro 4, Sandoval 5, Posey 2, Pence 9, Belt 3, Blanco 7, Crawford 6

Advantage: Tigers

This is another tough one, considering how the Giants have hit in the past few games, but Cabrera and Fielder are better than anything the Giants would put up there.  Granted, Posey's next, and he's pretty darn good, but then I'd probably put AJax, and 3 of the top 4 is enough to swing things toward the Tigers.  Defensively, the Giants have a pretty big advantage in skill, but all small-sample caveats apply.  Yeah, the Tigers are more likely to gaffe, but that doesn't mean they will.

Prediction:  Giants in 6

After all that, I still think the Giants win.  Call it a feeling, and say what you want about momentum, but the Giants sure feel like they're the chosen team this year.  I picked them to lose both round 1 and 2, and yet here they are.  Why not a couple more wins?

St. Louis vs San Francisco

And here I was 0 for 2.  I'd like to think Washington will be back, and I think they should be, but that' still a painful way to exit the playoffs.

Starting Pitching
Lynn, Carpenter, Lohse, Wainwright
vs
Bumgarner, Vogelsong, Cain, Zito?

Advantage: Cardinals

Yeah, I think Matt Cain is the best of the bunch.  And I can't say that the St. Louis bunch acquitted themselves all that well last round.  However, I still think I'd take Waino and Carpenter over Bumgarner.  This year, I might take Loshe and maybe Lynn over him.  Over their career, MadBum should be better than those two, possibly even Wainwright, but not yet, not now.  And, while they may not have announced it, Barry Zito may be making a postseason start for San Fran.  That immediately swings the advantage the other way.

Lynn < Bumgarner
Carpenter >> Vogelsong
Lohse <<< Cain
Wainwright >>>>......> Zito

Bullpen
Motte, Boggs, Mujica, Rosenthal
vs
Romo, Lincecum, Affeldt, Casilla

Advantage: Giants

Well, I can't much put Lincecum anywhere else, can I?  The Cards did a splendid job shutting down the Nats in late-game situations, outside of that one Werth bomb.  The Giants just look better right now with Romo and Casilla shutting down the back end and Lincecum available for the long role.  The wild-card in this mix is top prospect Shelby Miller in the Cardinals' pen.  He's got big league stuff, but didn't make an appearance in the Division Series.  He could be the Cards' answer to Lincecum's long relief, which might be enough to swing this toward the Cards.

Lineup
Jay 8, Beltran 9, Holliday 7, Craig 3, Molina 2, Freese 5, Descalso 4, Kozma 6
vs
Pagan 8, Scutaro 4, Sandoval 5, Posey 2, Pence 9, Belt 3, Blanco 7, Crawford 6

Advantage: Cardinals

For me, it really comes down to the 2 hole here.  Beltran is still a hitter capable of power, speed, and average.  Scutaro has average, and a little speed.  The 3-6 for both lineups stack up pretty evenly.  Yeah, I'd take Posey over Craig, though Craig has been pretty good.  I'd take Molina over Pence, especially since Pence has been hurt.  And, to be honest, the Cards have been hotter.  They hit .265/.378/.458 against a damn good Nationals pitching staff.  The Giants put up a sub-.200 team line against a similarly-talented Reds staff.

Prediction: Cards in 6
They were the team nobody was talking about heading into the playoffs, as the last team in the NL to clinch.  Without Pujols, they don't have the same name impact they used to.  But now they're hot.  And whatever you may attribute "hot" to, even down to random statistical aberration, in a short series, it doesn't take much to win and send you on. 

Mulligan Please?

Over the past 15 years, there have been many mistakes made by every single franchise when it comes to drafting in the NFL.  Tom Brady stands out the most of course, but not even the top scouts across the country could have predicted what was going to come from Tom Brady over the next decade.  Looking back with the knowledge that we have now, it’s really easy to see who messed up over the years, and who made the correct selections.  Yet, I still think there were situations in which the teams knew exactly what they could have drafted, but decided to go in a different route anyway.  I.e. Any team could’ve traded up with the Saint Louis Rams to select Robert Griffin III, who should go down as one of the better quarterbacks of this generation.  It was an open auction for 30 NFL franchises, and a couple of organizations could have really helped themselves.  (Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs – I’m looking at you.)  For the next four years, RG3 would likely be better than their current quarterbacks, and he’d cost half the price.  Here are my top 5.

#5.  Tim Couch going #1 to the Cleveland Browns.  (1999) For those that don’t remember, the Kentucky Wildcats were one of the first teams in the NCAA to switch to the spread offense, when the West Coast and Pro-Set were still in high demand.  Yes, Tim Couch threw some fantastic numbers while playing for Kentucky.  But they threw deep, and they threw a lot.  There wasn’t much to see in his case as far as accuracy was concerned, and he never really had to beat a pass rush.  I believed that Donovan McNabb was the best quarterback prospect in that draft, but better for the Browns would’ve been Ricky Williams or Edgerrin James.  Their line was crap (they were an expansion team), and Tim never really had the quality, coaching, or teammates to take him to a high level.  Credit to him though, he did avoid the rush adequately, and his rookie season showed more passing TD’s than interceptions.  But, Donovan’s wheels may have helped him avoid an ever-consistent pass rush, and either of the two running backs would’ve taken the pressure off of a quarterback playing immediately.  The Browns running back that year?  -- Terry frickin’ Kirby. 

#4. Courtney Brown going #1 to the Cleveland Browns. (2000) Yes, the Browns defense was pretty bad in their inaugural season, but that offense couldn’t move the ball either.  I really enjoyed the tandem of Courtney Brown and LaVar Arrington at Penn State.  But the Big Ten was really light that year, and I think both benefited from having the other.  Neither one should’ve gone as high as they did.  Chris Samuels was the #3 pick to the Washington Redskins and started immediately.  Lomas Brown was a serviceable LT for the Browns, but did they forget he was 36!?  Chris Samuels and Donovan McNabb definitely change the Browns trajectory.

#3. David Carr going #1 to the Houston Texans. (2002)  I already believe that the Houston Texans understood their mistake when years later they decided to draft Mario Williams #1 overall, when most believed that three players should have been drafted prior to him.  The mistake that led to this selection. - Passing up on one of the greatest physical specimen in NFL history, that of Julius Peppers.  He played two college sports at a high level.  He had one of the greatest scouting combine performances in history.  Even watching him, one could tell he was a great player waiting to happen.  Yet, the Texans thought that a quarterback coming out of Fresno State, who had yet to play against great competition was the way to go.  He didn’t even show great accuracy there either.  In these teams’ defense, strong armed quarterbacks were the way to go during this era.  Thank you Peyton Manning.   I guess the good news is that they didn’t draft Joey Harrington.  Although, I had him rated higher than David Carr at that time anyway, because he won some significant games while at Oregon.  And even though things led to the Texans drafting Mario Williams years later, many would probably agree that Julius Peppers is and would have been the better player for the Houston Texans. 

#2. The Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens select Todd Heap with the #31 pick. (2001)  Don’t get me wrong, this pick could have been way worse.  They actually drafted quite the player at the end of the first round.  Yet the entire world knew what the Baltimore Ravens didn’t have at the time, and that was a quarterback.  The quarterback selected right after Heap?  Drew Brees.  Now, there are many reasons why this happened.  First, no one wanted a short quarterback in those days.  Drew might be six feet tall on a good day.  Second, his arm strength was lacking.  When a Mr. Russell is selected #1 in an NFL draft, you know what is valued and what is overlooked.  But I still haven’t seen someone come out of college with the throwing accuracy of one Drew Brees.  RG3 is quite close though.  Matt Ryan does well in this department too.  But Drew had the most overlooked attribute in the NFL in abundance when he came out of Purdue in 2001.  Intangibles!  He is a born leader.  He shows no fear.  He doesn’t feed into all the criticisms.  Joe Flacco has been to the NFL playoffs every year of his NFL career, but how much of that can be attributed to him?  This defense would’ve been a gift for Drew, and Drew would’ve been the same for them.  Baltimore could’ve challenged New England and Indianapolis year after year if they had just been ahead of the curve and drafted a short quarterback without great arm strength out of an Indiana school by the name of Drew Brees. 

#1. The aforementioned JaMarcus Russell is taken #1 before a number of NFL greats. (2007)  With the exception of Jamaal Anderson going #8 to the Atlanta Falcons, the Oakland Raiders could have selected any other top ten player and gotten more production.(Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, etc)  Or they could’ve guessed correctly and drafted Darrelle Revis or Pat Willis and been set for 10 years.  I doubt that would’ve happened; I don’t think anyone knew that two Hall of Famers were about to go #11 and #14 in this draft.  But the whole world knew that Calvin Johnson would probably be one of the all-time greats.  A scout had said that prior to the draft that he had seen 3 perfect prospects during the 25 years of scouting for the NFL.  Two of them were the #1 pick in their drafts (John Elway, Peyton Manning).  The other was Calvin Johnson, and he went #2.  Shame, I say.  JaMarcus Russell might be the only player in NFL history that didn’t have a single productive game.* On top of that, they had Daunte Culpepper and Josh McCown at the time. Give Daunte Culpepper a Calvin Johnson instead of what they had, (Ronald Curry & Jerry Porter) and the Raiders may have had a fighting chance.

*Note – He had one.  18 for 25, 236 yards with 2 touchdowns and 0 turnovers.  Against the Houston Texans in 2008.  

Detroit vs New York

Got both of these right.  Not that I'm all that pleased about it, since I dislike both of these teams for their own reasons.  Oh well...

Starting Pitching
Fister, Sanchez, Verlander, Scherzer
vs
Pettitte, Kuroda, Hughes, Sabathia

Advantage: Tigers

The reality of this is that I'm basing this advantage strictly on the fact that Verlander will have gm 3 and a possible 7 on regular rest, and Sabathia will have to come back on short rest to pitch in a game 7.  Of course, this is assuming that the Yanks don't bring Sabathia back on short rest for game 3 to match up against Verlander.  In that case, this is almost as pushy as push gets.  But JV is the best pitcher in the AL, and he's more above Sabathia than one might think. 

Fister == Pettitte
Sanchez < Kuroda
Verlander >>>> Hughes
Scherzer << Sabathia

Bullpen
Valverde, Benoit, Coke, Albuquerque
vs
Soriano, Robertson, Logan, Phelps

Advantage: Yankees

These series will come down much more to single-position advantages, and this could negate any starting pitcher advantage very easily.  Valverde showed a vulnerability last series to an inferior offensive club.  It's weakness I've thought was there, but it's not important what I think to the outcome of the series.  The secondary guys will do what they will, but when it comes down to it, it'll be Valverde or Soriano, and right now, Soriano's the guy.

Lineup
Jackson 8, Infante 4, Cabrera 5, Fielder 3, Young 0, Peralta 6, Dirks 7, Garcia 9, Laird 2
vs
Jeter 6, Suzuki 7, Cano 4, Teixeira 3, Ibanez 0, Rodriguez 5, Swisher 9, Granderson 8, Martin 2

Advantage: Yankees

On the whole, I have to question Girardi's lineup choices much more than I do Leyland's.  Granderson has too much power to hit 8th.  Ichiro isn't a top-of-the-order hitter anymore.  Ibanez' hot hand is a mirage.  And yet, I still have to give them the advantage.  The Tigers' lineup goes 4 deep.  After Fielder, I'm not worried beyond a Young/Peralta one-off like last postseason.  Jeter and Ichiro can't get on base like they used to, but they only need to do it once or twice in the right spot and Cano through Granderson could be merry-go-rounding until the proverbial cows come home, particularly if the Tigers' soft middle-relief gets into the game.  Granted, Cabrera and Fielder can do as much damage as most teams, but I can't see it being enough. 

Prediction: Yankees in 6
It has to be 6, because if they let Verlander take the mound, even in Yankee Stadium, and against Sabathia, the Tigers will take it in 7.

How to make the World Cup Qualifiers interesting

"International break" they call it.  The weeks when the club teams take a break from their leagues, cups, drama, and routine and the international stage is alight with awful, tedious, abysmal Qualifiers for the next big international tournament.  The weeks I dread, when I’ve just gotten back into the rhythm of seeing my team play once or twice a week, just gotten used to early mornings at the pub again, just gotten used to remembering to set my fantasy team before the first game of the week; this is when the international breaks strike.

Don’t get me wrong, I love watching national teams play, any time the U.S. plays Mexico or Germany takes down England I’m a happy guy.  But when it interferes with the club football rhythm five or six times a season it’s just annoying.  So here are a couple of ways to make it tolerable.

1. Just take a month and figure it out.  What if February every year is dedicated to international tournaments?  You could fit a lot of games into that time period, the teams would have time to gel together, and it would create a tournament like atmosphere where people would be more likely to pay attention.  Do you know who your national team is playing this week?
2. Do it in the summer months.  Summers when the Euros and the World Cup are on are way better than summers without them, but the summers without them would be a lot better if it was full of qualifiers.  The common thread with idea number 1 being that if the qualifiers all happened at once it would be easier to follow and you’d be much more likely to pay attention.  The problem with this idea is that players need time to relax and rest once a year, you can tell when players haven’t had their proper time off during the summers months as they look languid and tired at the start of a new season.
3. Don’t stop the club fixtures when the qualifiers are happening.  I know I know, it sounds ludicrous but hear me out.  Do they stop the club season when the African Cup of Nations is going on?  No, it’s a nice twist in the plot every other season.  Clubs would have to plan ahead for when their star players would be missing, thus forcing them to field a B team and/or develop a [gasp] serious youth system to fill in the gaps.  The big problem would be players who don’t really care about their national team retiring from the international stage really early because they like their club team and its money better.  But how cool would it be to see all the B-squad players in club matches that really count?  There would be a lot more potential unearthed in those games than is currently happening at the club level.

Baltimore vs New York

Starting Pitching
Hammel, Chen, Gonzalez, Saunders
vs
Sabathia, Pettitte, Kuroda, Hughes

Advantage: Yankees

Again, they're really not all that far apart.  Which is strange considering the names involved.  Sabathia and Pettitte have roughly as many playoff starts as the Orioles' rotation has regular season starts.  Ok, I'm just making that one up, but it's not likely all that far off.  What helps the Yanks most is that they can trim their 5th starter (Nova) and possibly use him to trim their other 5th starter (Hughes) to keep both from getting beaten up too badly.  The Orioles can't take as much advantage of that, since their starters are all of roughly the same quality.  The Yanks are a .5 BB/9 better and .9 K/9 better, and have a noticeable edge in FIP, 4.14 to 4.50.  I give the Yankees an advantage in games 1-3.

Bullpen
Johnson, Strop, O'Day, Ayala
vs
Soriano, Robertson, Logan, Rapada

Advantage: Orioles

The likes of Johnson and Strop are what got the Orioles to the postseason.  And this isn't the same Yankees bullpen without the great Mariano at the back.  Soriano and Robertson have been excellent, but if Logan or Rapada see the light of a high-leverage situation, the result will not be pretty for the pinstripers.  It may not matter if the Yanks' offense has its way, but if the games are close, the Orioles might be able to squeak by long enough to pull something unexpected.

Lineup
McLouth 7, Hardy 6, Jones 8, Wieters 2, Reynolds 3, Machado 5, Davis 9, Ford 0, Andino 4
vs
Jeter 6, Ichiro 7, Rodriguez 5, Cano 4, Swisher 9, Teixeira 3, Granderson 8, Martin 2, Ibanez 0

Advantage: Yankees

Hard not to give the Yanks the advantage here.  Not to say it's a good thing that a DH is hitting 9th, but I'd prefer that to having Lew Ford as the DH.  That and the fact that the Yankees led the AL in OBP and SLG while the Orioles were average or worse in both really sums up the story.  The O's can't even claim a defensive advantage, because while the Yanks were bad, the O's were slightly worse!  Second best offensive fWAR from the Yankees?  Gotta go with that.

Prediction: Yankees in 4
I'd call sweep, but the O's have had too much crazy crap happening to write them off completely.  Give 'em one, but there's not enough there there to roll to the LCS

St. Louis vs Washington

Starting Pitching
Wainwright, Garcia, Carpenter, Lohse
vs
Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Jackson, Detwiler

Advantage: Nationals

Though really, this is probably a push.  Much of the Nationals' numbers were accumulated with Strasburg, as were the Cardinals' without Carpenter.  But Carpenter is coming off an injury, and Wainwright hasn't had his best year, or anything close.  Further, Gonzalez has had his best year, with Zimmermann rounding back into the form he showed before getting injured.  Hence, advantage Nats.  Though, these two teams really were too close to tell, probably 1 & 2 for starters in the NL.  Washington has an edge in K/9, which they give back in BB/9.  Or, let's put it this way, the two teams' FIP ratings were 3.46 and 3.47.  Doesn't matter which is which.  For this particular set of matchups, I like Washington in games 1 - 3.

Bullpen
Motte, Boggs, Rzepczynski, Salas
vs
Clippard, Stammen, Mattheus, Burnett 

Advantage: Nationals

Again, this is probably a push.  If I were to rank these 8 players, I'd take Motte and Boggs, and then the four Washington guys.  So, it becomes something of a conundrum.  It's the postseason, so bullpens get pared down to the best, but the Cards will, inevitably, have to call on relievers other than Motte and Boggs, at which point they are at a disadvantage.  The Nats, however, go a full six or seven players deep in their pen.  The next two pitchers on the Nats' list, Storen and Gonzalez, were recently closers themselves.  If any of these games go extras, the Nationals will win that game.

Starting Lineup
Jay 8, Beltran 9, Holliday 7, Craig 3, Molina 2, Freese 5, Descalso 4, Kozma 6
vs
Werth 9, Harper 8, Zimmerman 5, LaRoche 3, Morse 7, Desmond 6, Espinosa 4, Suzuki 2 

Advantage: Cardinals

Once again, it's barely more than a push.  The Cards' offense led the NL in OBP at .338 (Nats at .322), but ranked just behind the Nats in SLG (.428 to .421).  The Nats were 2nd in HR in the NL with 194, while the Cards' 159 was middle of the pack.  But the Cards were 2nd in the NL in runs scored with 765, and the Nats were middle of the pack with 731.  Now, those margins aren't that big - about a HR every 4 games, and a run every 5, but they're noteworthy.  Both teams' offenses rated above average after park adjustment - STL's OPS+ rated 107, with Washington at 102.  Defensively, the Cards were slightly below average, while the Nats were slightly above.

Prediction: Nats in 3

Like I said, I like the Nationals' starting pitching matchups in those games, and, well, I just can't help but get behind the narrative brewing in DC.

San Francisco vs Cincinnatti

Starting Pitching
Cain, Bumgarner, Lincecum, Vogelsong
vs
Cueto, Arroyo, Latos, Bailey

Advantage: Reds

San Francisco certainly has the name recognition advantage.  Lincecum and Cain powered these guys to the World Championship just two short years ago.  This year, well, it's been Cain.  Bumgarner's been really good.  But Lincecum?  Not so much.  What you might not have known is that Cueto for Cincy has been every bit Cain's equal.  Latos was just before this season the offseason's biggest trade.  The Reds' starters' ERA was BETTER than the Giants', despite playing in one of the most offense-happy ballparks in the league.  Cincinnatti's team ERA+, which is a number rating a team's ERA against the league average with adjustment for park factor, is a whopping 127, with 100 as the average.  San Francisco plays in a pitchers' park, and their team ERA+ was actually below average at 95.  In the game-by-game, I like San Fran in game 1 and 2, and Cincy in 3 and 4, but the Reds' disadvantage in their losses is much smaller than the Giants'.

Bullpen
Casilla, Lopez, Romo, Affeldt
vs
Chapman, Marshall, Arredondo, Ondrusek

Advantage: Reds

Chapman and Marshall may be as devastating a 8th-9th combo as is left in the playoffs.  Chapman only struck out 122 in 72 innings.  Only Kimbrel had a higher rate.  By comparison, Marshall's 10.9 K/9 is pedestrian.  To be fair, San Fran's Romo has put together an amazing season himself, but it's hard to match him up against one of the all-time best relief seasons in Aroldis.  Both bullpens drop off after their top two or three, but that's less an issue here.  If the Reds have a lead after 7, the game is over.

Lineup
Pagan 8, Scutaro 4, Sandoval 5, Posey 2, Pence 9, Nady 7, Belt 3, Arias 6
vs
Phillips 4, Cozart 6, Votto 3, Ludwick 7, Bruce 9, Rolen 5, Hanigan 2, Stubbs 8

Advantage: Giants

Both of these teams have an MVP-caliber player to anchor their team around.  Votto was toting an absurd .450 OBP for the better part of the first half.  Posey has posted his own counterpart to Mauer's '09 season as far as offensive output from a catcher goes.  Although the Giants had the fewest HR in the NL, a mere 103, they still managed to keep pace with the Reds as far as SLG goes (.411 to .397), most likely owing to the spacious outfield they call home.  The Giants' ability to get on base (.325 OBP) allows them to take advantage of those extra base hits, to the point that they outscored the Reds this year 718 to 669.  Fielding metrics had both teams slightly above average, so there isn't an advantage to be had there.  It may take more hits to get their runs, but I think the Giants have more people able to get them than the Reds do. 

Prediction: Reds in 4

I think the Reds sneak out game 1 despite a great performance from Cain, then take games 3 and 4 in Cincy.  I like the Giants' team this year, but the Reds' pitching staff top to bottom is too much for me to ignore this time.

Detroit vs Oakland

Starting Pitchers
Verlander, Fister, Sanchez, Scherzer
vs
Parker, Milone, Anderson, Griffin

Advantage: Tigers

At first glance, I think Detroit has the edge in gms 1, 2, and 4.  Oakland's rotation choices are odd, in my opinion.  I would've thought Anderson would've been the guy tabbed to face Verlander, as he's the most likely to match a Verlander outing.  Also, Milone has heavy home-road splits, so he'd be the logical gm 3 choice in this format.    Overall, the Tigers and A's were very evenly matched in starting pitching numbers.  90 quality starts each.  Equivalent home run rates and walk rates.  Starter ERA - A's 3.80, Tigers 3.76.  Then the Tigers start separating.  League-leading K/9 of 8.19 - A's 6.27.  League-leading fWAR (SP only) of 20.5 - A's 13.6, where fWAR is the Wins Above Replacement metric used by fangraphs.com.  In particular, I focus on the K/9 that the Tigers put up.  The A's were the most strikeout-prone offense in the AL this year.  Verlander and Scherzer will eat them up.

Bullpens
Valverde, Benoit, Coke, Dotel
vs
Balfour, Cook, Blevins, Doolittle

Advantage: Athletics

Full disclosure alert - I'm biased against the Tigers' pen.  I think Valverde is the worst well-thought-of reliever in the game.  I think Benoit is good, but had a fluky year that let everyone go crazy about him.  I don't like the way the Tigers' mothers dress them.  But looking over the numbers, there isn't much to distinguish the two.  Tigers with a couple more strikeouts, and a couple less walks.  Athletics less homer-prone.  Even their FIP (fielding independent pitching) numbers rate out equal - DET 3.77, OAK 3.74.  I guess this one comes down to feel for me, and I've got more faith in the A's, particularly when the chaff gets culled from the rosters and only the best relievers on a team see action.


Lineups
Jackson 8, Berry 7, Cabrera 5, Fielder 3, Young 0, Dirks 9, Peralta 6, Avila 2, Infante 4
vs
Crisp 8, Drew 6, Cespedes 7, Moss 3, Reddick 9, Donaldson 5, Smith 0, Norris 2, Pennington 4

Advantage: Tigers

This is another feel case.  I want to say the Tigers are the better offense.  They're better at getting on base (.335 to .310).  They slug better (.422 to .404).  They have a muuuuuch higher batting average (.268 to .238!).  And yet, the Tigers only scored 13 more runs over the course of the season.  This may be the "clutch" thing coming through, I don't know, but I do not feel it's a good predictive measure.  The A's even out-homered the Tigers 195 to 163.  And then we get to the defense. According to fangraphs again, the A's defense was as good as the Tigers' was bad.  The A's compiled a UZR of 24.3, to the Tigers' -28.1.  This discrepancy even pushed the A's WAR past the Tigers' (23.8 to 21.1), though the difference is small on a team scale.  I think given a large enough sample, the Tigers would out-perform the A's, but the things the A's do better - homers, and not bungling things in the field - are the sorts of things that only need one of to be catastrophic in the post season.

Conclusion: Tigers in 5
I would've picked the Tigers to lose to the Yanks, Rangers, and Angels, but Texas' collapse and the A's surge have left two of those three out of the playoffs at this point.  It may take two Verlander starts to do it, but I see the Tigers winning.

The MLB Wild Cards

So the season has culminated in these two games for two teams. Is this the best way to go about determining a champion? Well, there are worse *cough*BCS*cough*, but it's what we've got. So here's what we've got:
St. Louis Cardinals
at
Atlanta Braves

This is a little catharsis for the Braves after last year's collapse - yeah, remember that? - and a surprising, if under-publicized, result for the Cards, who still managed to make the playoffs after losing Pujols and Carpenter off of last year's team.

Starting Pitcher
Kyle Lohse
vs
Kris Medlen

Advantage: Braves

Medlen has been the second half's best pitcher in the NL, and stands as an example for how the Nationals should have handled Strasburg. They knew they had an innings limit they were working under, so they rationed the innings at the beginning of the year, moving him from the 'pen to the rotation, and getting rewarded with an amazing stat line: 10-1, 1.57/0.91, 7.8 K/9. On the other side, Dave Duncan has squeezed a longer career from an above-average pitcher out of Lohse, who was below average but above replacement level when the Twins traded him some years ago. To be fair, he's been far from a slouch this season, posting a 1.09 WHIP, and a K/9 of about 6 in 211 innings. For both teams, having to burn this pitcher for this situation lessens their probability of advancing past the next round, but that's the advantage the bigwigs were looking for when they imposed this new system. Lohse would be better than many other team's options in this game, but I can't ignore Medlen's line.

Bullpen

Advantage: Braves

Motte, Boggs, Salas, Rzepczynski
vs
Kimbrel, Durbin, Venters, O'Flaherty

This is very close, just comparing their numbers. Venters is the most noticeable drop-off from last year's studly corps assembled in Atlanta, and Kimbrel's insane 0.65 WHIP are what puts them over the top, though Motte's not too far off at 0.92. Bullpens are notoriously hard to predict on long-term samples, so really speaking with any confidence on a one-game matchup between bullpens is foolish. Therefore, I'll take the Braves, simply on my gut.

Starting Lineup
Jay 8, Beltran 9, Holliday 7, Craig 3, Molina 2, Freese 5, Descalso 4, Kozma 6
vs
Bourn 8, Prado 7, Heyward 9, Jones 5, Freeman 3, McCann 2, Uggla 4, Simmons 6

Advantage: Cardinals

These aren't necessarily either team's starting lineup, just an extrapolation from the teams' lineups of the past week. Going based on names only, I have to like the Braves. However, the Cards were 2nd in the NL in runs scored, and led the league in team OBP, whereas the Bravos were closer to league-average in both categories. Defensively, the two teams are roughly equal, as Molina's exceptional play is counteracted by Bourn's equal on the other side, and Holliday's struggles offset by Uggla's. Therefore, the Cards have the edge, but I can't say it's by a lot.

Prediction: Atlanta 5, St. Louis 3
I have to favor the hot hand of Medlen, and I just see an Uggla or McCann blast staking Atlanta to a lead they'll hold onto.

Baltimore Orioles
vs
Texas Rangers

The culmination of a cinderella story, though slightly disappointing, faces a repeat offender of recent playoffs past. Both had opportunities to be through this round free, but couldn't get the wins when they needed.

Starting Pitcher
Joe Saunders
vs
Yu Darvish

Advantage: Rangers

I think the clear advantage here is in Texas. Darvish got Trout'd out of a Rookie of the Year award, and hit first half decline overshadowed a second half with 7 of 15 starts wtih 9 k's or more and an opponents' OBP of .295. Saunders is an average NL starter who's done well in his 7 AL starts, but is a career 4.15 ERA, 5 k/9 pitcher well-suited to the middle, not the top, of a rotation.

Bullpen
Johnson, Strop, O'Day, Ayala
vs
Nathan, Adams, Ogando, Ross

Advantage: Orioles

Put simply, the Orioles have had the best bullpen in baseball this year. Their 5 most-used relievers all clocked in with ERAs under 2.65, and WHIP under 1.34, led by O'Day in both with 2.28/0.94. Now, that's not to say the Rangers' pen is very far behind, as those four, plus Uehara, make up probably the second-best top 5 in at least the AL. Texas has a better ability to get the key strikeout, but Baltimore has done a better job of getting outs, period. The edge is Baltimore's but it's narrow.

Starting Lineup
McLouth 7, Hardy 6, Davis 9, Jones 8, Wieters 2, Thome 0, Reynolds 3, Flaherty 4, Machado 5
vs
Kinsler 4, Andrus 6, Hamilton 8, Beltre 0, Cruz 9, Young 5, Murphy 7, Napoli 2, Moreland 3

This one shakes out more like you'd expect. The Rangers led baseball in runs scored this year and were 3rd in the AL in OBP, while the Orioles were just below the average in both categories. Much like in the NL matchup, the lesser offense has significant pop, which can swing the tides of a single-game situation quickly. The Rangers have plenty of pop of their own, and shouldn't have any problems keeping up if the game becomes a shootout. Defensively, the Rangers are hurt by Beltre being injured and taking his plus glove off the hot corner. Baltimore also figures to start Davis in right, which is quite a defensive liability, though Cruz is no slouch in the liability department himself. Wieters is a good defender behind the plate, and Napoli couldn't fully reproduce his solid '11 effort. On the whole, I like Baltimore a little better there, but not enough to compensate for the machine that is the Texas offense.

Prediction: Texas 8, Baltimore 2
Baltimore needs this to be a close game, where they've gotten inordinate luck to propel them to their record, but also allowing their bullpen to shoulder the load. Unfortunately for them, Texas won't give them that chance, getting to Saunders in the middle innings.

NFL Predictions w/every Game

So I decided to grab myself an NFL schedule, and predict the win-loss outcome of every game.  I sprinkled in a couple of predictable suspensions, a few injuries that I thought might happen, and let 'er rip!  Pretty similar to how I thought it was going to be in my last blog.  Only a few surprises (Like Carolina's ridiculously tough schedule).

AFC East
1. New England Patriots 13-3*
2. Buffalo Bills 9-7*
3. N.Y. Jets 7-9
4. Miami Dolphins 5-11

No surprises really.  New England should go 6-0 in division, and lock up home field for the playoffs.  As long as Buffalo doesn't lose to Miami, the schedule should get them into the playoffs. Look out for New England/San Francisco this season, should be a doozy.

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4*
2. Baltimore Ravens 11-5*
3. Cincinnati Bengals 9-7
4. Cleveland Browns 3-13

Tough schedules abound for all 3 squads, but Pittsburgh should be good enough if they don't suffer serious injuries.  I predict that Ray Rice misses a few games, and knock Baltimore down a bit.

AFC South
1. Houston Texans 11-5*
2. Tennessee Titans 6-10
3. Indianapolis Colts 5-11
4. Jacksonville Jaguars 1-15

I think Blaine Gabbert has one of the worst season's in NFL history.  Not to say that they didn't give him weapons, but I really think he is of the Ryan Leaf ilk.  Houston does what they're supposed to go; Locker and Luck have signs of stardom.

AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs 11-5*
2. Denver Broncos 8-8
3. Oakland Raiders 7-9
4. San Diego Chargers 7-9

They all play really tough games this year.  I think that Peyton misses a few, and ends Denver's season early. Kansas City stays healthy for once, and wins when it counts (7 of last 8)

NFC East
1. New York Giants 11-5*
2. Philadelphia Eagles 11-5*
3. Dallas Cowboys 6-10
4. Washington Redskins 6-10

Dallas very well could start out 3-0, but that's how brutal their remaining games are.  Philly and New York are both good teams, but they have some tough games as well.  Washington will win a few upsets, but really have it all to do to win 8+ games.

NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers 11-5*
2. Detroit Lions 11-5*
3. Chicago Bears 10-6
4. Minnesota Vikings 5-11

If I get this right, Detroit and Chicago will both be 10-5 when they play each other to get into the playoffs.  That could be the game of the season, and I could see Detroit winning it.  Packers may start 3-3.  Vikings have a shot at 3-1, before it gets ugly.

NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons 13-3*
2. New Orleans Saints 9-7
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-10
4. Carolina Panthers 6-10

Prior to this, I had the Panthers making the playoffs.  But, boy do they have some tough games.  Cam has to see some really good defenses, and I think he struggles this year.  If it all comes together for the Falcons, and they avoid serious injuries, they could really do this.  Tough games are at home, easy games away.  New Orleans has a brutal schedule including the Giants, Packers and 49ers, plus the Broncos and Chiefs early.

NFC West
1. San Francisco 49ers 12-4*
2. Seattle Seahawks 7-9
3. Arizona Cardinals 5-11
4. St. Louis Rams 2-14

I have Sammy Bradford suffering an ACL tear.  If he doesn't and plays a full year, 6-10.  I think Arizona gets hot and wins 4 in a row, but lose a significant player (Fitz, Wells?), and struggle as well.  It all comes together for the 49ers; really difficult schedule, but they win some really difficult games (New England, Chicago).  Seattle does pretty well considering Russell Wilson plays all 16 games.

Playoffs:

Buffalo at Houston - Houston is made to go far, plus their defense is a bit better.  Houston to go through.
Baltimore at KC - Baltimore knows time is running short, play very well and cruise.

Detroit at Green Bay - A shoot out for sure.  Aaron won't lose again this early.
Philadelphia at Giants - Could go either way.  Hate to bet against Eli.  So I won't.

Baltimore at New England - Revenge for last season.  Flacco outdoes Brady.
Houston at Pittsburgh - Could be 13-10.   I like Ben to snake one out this year.

Giants at Atlanta - The stuff that makes legends.  Eli does it again.
Green Bay at 49ers - Justin Smith was right.  This is their time.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh - What could very well be the game of the year.  Ray Rice and Ray Lewis lead.
Giants at 49ers - A rematch of last year's game, and revenge is served again.  49ers get there!

Baltimore vs. 49ers - In what I still think will be the Harbaugh Bowl, a Harbaugh will win a super bowl.  Just not sure yet which one.

Injuries: Sam Bradford, Peyton Manning, Justin Blackmon, Ray Rice, DeAngelo Williams.
Surprises: Julio Jones, Jeremy Maclin, Ashlon Jeffery, Dashon Goldson, DeMeco Ryans, Brooks Reed, Matt Cassel.

Enjoy the season!  Thank God it's finally here!