Texas Rangers
2011: 96-66, AL West Champs, AL Champs
2011 Pythagorean: 98-64
2012 Over/Under: 91.5
My Pick: OVER
Key Additions:
P Yu Darvish
P Joe Nathan
Key Losses:
P C.J. Wilson
P Darren Oliver
2012 Offseason Wrapup
The Rangers have established themselves as the new power in the AL West, as evidenced by their repeat trips to the World Series. They've got the talent at the big league level to compete for rings in the near future, and the farm system to maintain dominance once they get there.
The biggest loss this team suffered is their ace, C.J. Wilson. It's hard to call him a true ace, though he was the best pitcher on the team and obvious leader of the staff. He's very good, but was maybe the 4th best pitcher in the division, much less in the top 5% of the league. To that end, if the scouting reports on this kid Darvish turn out to be true, he should at least provide a value-equal replacement to Wilson. A much more interesting change is the swapping of Ogando and Feliz between the rotation and the bullpen. Feliz was groomed as a starter and pressed into closing duty as team needs dictated. Now that Adams and Nathan are in the fold, the RHRP role is well-filled and Feliz can return to the rotation. He's expected to continue some measure of the dominance he showed in the bullpen, and that will be a bigger story on the pitching staff than anything short of a complete Darvish blow-out.
On offense, they're the same team as last year's that ranked 3rd in the AL in runs scored, which is a good thing, but not without questions. The two biggest are whether Napoli can repeat his breakout season and whether Hamilton can put together anything resembling a complete season. Kinsler, Young, Andrus, and Beltre are among the best at their respective positions, though Young is due for decline, and the outfield of Cruz, Hamilton, and Otherguy (Borbon/Gentry/etc) is not a problem. Good offense is good.
2012 TEX rookie of the year: Darvish is the layup here, and it's kinda dumb that he's rookie-eligible, so I'll disregard him for these purposes. Instead, I'll go with Martin Perez, LHSP. He's one of the guys that made Erlin and Wieland, two quality pitchers flipped for Adams, expendable. He's on the 40-man and is who I think should be the first man up in case of an injury in the major league rotation. Other names to watch for: Tanner Scheppers - RHRP, Leonys Martin - OF, Neil Ramirez - RHSP
Los Angeles Angels
(of Anaheim Orange County California blah blah)
2011: 86-76
2011 Pythagorean: 85-77
2012 Over/Under: 92.5
My Pick: UNDER
Key Additions
1B Albert Pujols
P C.J. Wilson
P LaTroy Hawkins
C Chris Iannetta
Key Losses
P Joel Pineiro
P Fernando Rodney
P Tyler Chatwood
2012 Offseason Overview
I really don't need to say much about the Angels to preface. In one day, they spent the most money in one offseason since the Yanks reeled in CC and Tex in the same offseason. So yes, they'll be better than last year. They have to be. I just don't think it'll be enough.
So maybe you've heard of this Pujols guy. Helped the Cards to two rings and one other NL Championship? Yeah, he's good. Can't argue that. Thing is, I don't think he's enough better than Trumbo or Morales that he'll propel this team right into the playoffs. They still probably get in with the 5th playoff spot in play, but I don't see them actually posing a serious threat to the Rangers' division title hopes. The reason I don't think it's enough is because first base was already their best offensive position - the problem lay with the other 8 offensive players. Wells, Hunter, and Abreu make up a wonderful outfield circa 2005, but they're collectively losing their tasty red center. Bourjos is possibly the best defensive CF in the majors, or is at least top 5, so he'll get playing time, but he's not an offensive asset. The same can be said about the rest of the offense - Callaspo's empty .366 OBP led the team among regulars, and if your 2B has the highest OPS on your team and he's not Cano or Utley, it doesn't speak well of you. When you have a mediocre offense, signing the best offensive player of the generation is never a bad idea, and considering the layout of the rest of the team, it was the only position to upgrade this offseason. But it's not enough.
I think the pitching is much the same story. It never hurts to add the best pitcher available in the offseason, and Wilson will be the second-best #3 starter in the league - sorry, rather have Hamels - but the value over his potential replacement isn't enough to make it worth the money. Weaver, Haren, and Big Erv were already the centerpiece of this team, and were the reason the team won 85 last year. Is Wilson more than a couple wins better than Jerome Williams, Garrett Richards, or Trevor Bell? I don't think so.
2012 LAA rookie of the year: Mike Trout, OF - and there's really no other way to go here. Yeah, Richards might be a nice player, and someone else might step up and make us take notice, but any prognosticator has to take Trout. In any other season, he's be a shoo-in for AL ROY, but this Moore kid in Tampa is a bit of a speed bump on that road. Trout will force himself into the big league lineup sooner than later, and he'll be up to stay. Check back next year for a more challenging pick. Other names to watch: Richards - RHSP, Jean Segura - SS
Oakland Athletics
2011: 74-88
2011 Pythagorean: 77-85
2012 Over/Under: 71.5
My Pick: UNDER
Key Additions
OF Yoenis Cespedes
OF Seth Smith
OF Josh Reddick
DH Manny Ramirez
P Bartolo Colon
Key Losses
P Andrew Bailey
P Gio Gonzalez
P Trevor Cahill
OF Josh Willingham
OF David DeJesus
2012 Offseason Overview
The A's have sent a clear message: it's time to rebuild. Trading Cahill and Gonzalez brought back many nice pieces and replenished the farm system from a middle-bottom level to in the one of the top 6 or 7 systems. And that's great to hear, since being in the middle is a place that's untenable unless you're really on the way up. So they sold off their three most marketable pieces, got younger, and are now going to try to push back toward the top, though LA and TEX will make it hard for many years to come.
The pitching staff was hit the hardest. Gonzalez and Cahill were the two remaining quality healthy members on the staff, and now they're off to the NL. Bailey was a quality reliever and now he replaces Papelbon. Braden and Anderson are the next two best pitchers, and both are recovering from Tommy John. Of course, McCarthy is a quality pitcher, and about any team would have room for him in their rotation, but when he's your #1, that doesn't say much for your present hopes for competing. I'm guessing at least 8 pitchers will have 5 starts for the A's over the course of the year. It's time to experiment. Throw the kids out there and see who wants it.
Offensively, the theme is pretty much the same. Unfortunately, they're a bunch of young guys that are getting into put-up-or-shut-up contract regions. Weeks, Pennington, and Suzuki have got a year or two under their belt, and arbitration looms. Crisp is what he is. It's a shame what happened to Sizemore, but I don't think the team will lose out too badly. The one interesting point on the offense is Cespedes. YouTube phenomenon that he is, he's going to hav67- a chance to live up to the hype right away, despite some evaluators saying he should start the year in AA. He has the talent to bring this team a lot closer to .500 than I'd like to believe, but it's hard to believe he'll make it happen right away. My expectation is that he'll show us - more importantly, San Jose fans - something to get excited about. Next year, he'll be ready to take the league by storm. But not yet.
2012 OAK rookie of the year: Cespedes has already had enough words devoted to him here, and he's the only choice, to be honest. Brad Peacock, Jarrod Parker, and Tom Milone all came over in those offseason trades, and although only Milone made the opening day rotation, he's the least talented of the three. They could be the building blocks of the next big rotation of Oakland lore. Other names: Collin Cowgill - OF, Derek Norris - C
Seattle Mariners
2011: 67-95
2011 Pythagorean: 67-95
2012 Over/Under: 72
My Pick: OVER
Key Additions:
C Jesus Montero
P Hector Noesi
Key Losses:
P Michael Pineda
2012 Offseason Overview
The Mariners have been a dearth of offense ever since their last division title in '01. They've been 13th or worse in the AL in runs scored 7 times in the 11 seasons since then, bottoming out to historic levels in the past two seasons by failing to score even 600 runs. They might reach that lofty plateau this year, but even that assures the Mariners will be continue to be bad. The Mariners have benefited from their pitching-friendly ballpark with a quality staff and solid defense, which will also continue this year. Much like Oakland, this team will be all about developing youngsters and looking toward the future.
There are two names every baseball fan knows on Seattle. The young one is Felix Hernandez, anchor of the staff. While he may be subject of trade rumors - again - as the Yankees continually lust after the best of other team's labors, he is yet still the Mariners' frontman. Without Pineda to back him up for the near future, the staff takes a significant hit, but there is help on the way. Vargas was a solid pitcher last year, and Noesi was underrated for the Yankees last year and will benefit from spacious Safeco. Old Man Millwood is just keeping a spot warm for the youngsters - last year's #2 overall pick Danny Hultzen was drafted there primarily for the speed with which he was expected to reach the majors. There have been no indications that those expectations will not come to fruition, with Hultzen likely to end the year in the rotation, though he may not begin it there. Also on the way is James Paxton, one-time participant in the never-ending battle between the NCAA and amateurism. Both figure to cut their teeth this year with an eye toward making an impact next season and paying off the faith Hernandez has shown in the organization.
Offensively, the biggest story is Montero. The rookie comes over from the Yankees and instantly is the biggest power threat in the offense. Yeah, the stories have persisted that Ichiro could hit for power if he so desired, but his age may make that prohibitive anyway, though he still has a very productive amount of speed. Behind those two, young Ackley needs to take another step forward to prove himself a proper complimentary piece and table-setter for Montero. Aside from those three, the rest of the offense is deplorable. Three players from last year return to the starting lineup after sporting sub-.300 OBP numbers. One of which even batted below the Mendoza line, and is even now going to be leading off in an absolutely baffling decision - I'm looking at you, Chone Figgins. There's a lot of good defense here, but those defenders such as Figgins, Ryan, and Gutierrez need to show a pulse on offense to start winning some games. Finally, it's time for Smoak to step up. The focal point of the Cliff Lee trade a couple years ago, he's gotta start paying off or he will be replaced.
2012 SEA rookie of the year: Montero, C/DH will be expected to carry the offense from day 1 and has the talent to live up to that. He's been the best offensive prospect in the "non-Bryce Harper" category for the past two years and should flex that ability, even in the pitchers' paradise that is Safeco. Other names: Hultzen - RHSP, Paxton - RHSP, Vinny Catricala - 3B
All images were taken from BaseballProspectus.com and are property of Major League Baseball