Top Ten Pound-for-Pound Mixed Martial Arts Fighters

I know there's going to be some disagreement here, but this is my personal list of who I believe to be the top ten pound-for-pound MMA fighters in the world. Certainly there's more consensus for some guys who didn't make my list, but I like any true MMA fan, should be judging talent based on my own two eyes rather than analytical consensus. With the MMA's growing presence and legitimacy in the sports realm, and the caliber of established and prospective talent across the three major MMA associations (UFC, Bellator, Strikeforce), there's an immensely bright future for the sport. Their wilingness to  gather talent and continuously put the best fighters up against the best fighters has legitimized MMA as a mainstay of Pay-Per-View excitement. I'd even go as far as to say that MMA could eventually become one of the top 4 most popular sports in the country, if it's not already. 

Honorable Mention: Carlos Condit

Ground and Pound. That's what comes to mind for me with me when talking about interim welterweight champion Carlos Condit. Like many of the top fighters in the lighter weight classes Condit is a great striker, but he's certainly not beholden to it. While his striking is dangerous, Condit likes to use long kicks and more ranged attacks in order daze his opponent to the mat, where he just absolutely destroys people. He may be one of the best ground and pound fighters in the sport, and seldom leaves  opponents any breathing room on the mat. His ability to get guys down and switch from striking to grappling in a heartbeat has him on the verge of my top ten list. If he wants to stay there though, he's gonna have to prove he can avoid being completely dismantled by the former champ George St. Pierre. I know, MMA fans are screaming "Gilbert Melendez!!". Still a bit too soon for me on that one, but Condit is proven.

10. Cain Velasquez

Okay this is where I'm going to be seriously hated by dedicated MMA fans. How did a guy who lost a title fight on network television in just over a minute make my top ten pound-for-pound list? It's because Junior Dos Santos has a way of making just about anybody look really really bad. That said, the rematch is inevitable and I won't be the least bit surprised if Velasquez takes his Heavyweight title back the second time around. Despite Dos Santos giving Velasquez a one shot dropper, Velasquez has a strong chin, brutal striking ability, and a spectacular ground game. If he didn't lose so badly to Dos Santos though, I don't think there would be any question that he was a top ten guy, because as far as I can tell Velasquez has no real weakness anywhere. That's pretty scary for a guy with that much size and power. Between Velasquez and Dos Santos. I think it'd probably be best for everybody else in the heavyweight division to stay on the other side of the playground until that fight is over, or the bell for the end of recess sounds.

9. Dan "Hendo" Henderson

I don't think anybody wouldn't say that Dan Henderson isn't the second best light heavyweight in MMA. Equally as certain, I don't think you'll find many people who believe he will ever become the best light heavyweight either while Jon Jones is around. That shouldn't be a knock on the guy though,as he is still one of the most versatile power guys around. His massive striking power often leaves little room for him to show people everything he can do. When he is forced to use all his skills opponents quickly realize that he's much more than a power striker, but that generally happens much too late. Even if you have a solid plan to counter his slugging strength he's probably going to catch you with it anyway.

8. Frankie "The Answer" Edgar

While losing to Benson Henderson by unanimous decision his last go, Frankie Edgar has all the tools to return to championship gold. His versatility is his best quality, and he's proved it with wins against quality competition like BJ Penn and Gray Maynard. It's only fair that he get his rematch with Ben Henderson after continuously proving why he was a title holder. I don't think he'll beat Henderson in the rematch just because Henderson is so incredibly gifted athletically, but the lightweight division is dripping with talent, and you've got to give anybody who holds that lightweight title a lot of credit.

7. Dominick "The Dominator" Cruz

It's really incredible to me how Dominick Cruz doesn't get hit more than he does, because he hardly gets hit at all. He's so quick he can bob and weave so well it can make good fighters feel look like idiots. That said, he has a tendency to rely on long range hooks that can often miss the target. For most fighters that would be a great recipe to leave yourself defenseless but somehow he manages to avoid overcommitting on any them, and can maintain his balance to keep his guard up. He makes himself even harder to counter by following those hooks with great combination sequences that can carry some force. If there's one guy who has been able to get at his chin, it's Urijah Faber, unfortunately Cruz tore his ACL in preparation for their July 7th tiebreaker at UFC 148, so we might have to wait a while to see him back in action.

6. Benson "Smooth" Henderson

Ben Henderson is a guy who has so many tools you can't go into a fight worried about any one thing that he does well. That's why he's one of the most aggressive fighters on this list, he can afford to be. They might call him "Smooth" but that doesn't mean he doesn't come with a whole lot of violence. You can't face him up and strike with him but he's even more deadly on the ground, because he loves pounding people into the mat, and he's one of the most deadly submission artists in the sport. My favorite thing about him is he mixes raw athleticism with incredible technical ability. Even face up standing and striking he can catch you slipping and trap you in a debilitating submission. Now that is what you call technical skill. You're gonna want to make sure you watch his upcoming rematch with Frankie Edgar on August 11th at UFC 150.

5. Junior  "Cigano" Dos Santos

I'm sorry, I just can't have any respect for any top ten pound-for-pound list that doesn't have Junior Dos Santos on it. Cigano is on another stratosphere from any other heavyweight not named Cain Velasquez, certainly not until Alistair Overeem can prove that he can still be a great fighter when he doesn't have 10 times the normal level of testosterone in his body. He might be the most versatile heavyweight to ever grace the sport. When a guy that athletic has no technical weaknesses to speak of, you know you got a freak of a fighter. His boxing skills are as polished as anybody in MMA, but he forces you to deal with it because his takedown defense is impeccable. You're not going get Dos Santos on the ground often, but if you do, it'll likely be after one of his powerful yet precise punches smash your face and he goes to the mat to finish you off. 

4. Jose "Junior" Aldo 

If there's a reason that Jose Aldo is on this list it's because of his striking ability. Simply put he's one the best strikers in the sport. Even Anderson Silva reportedly joked that if Aldo moved up to 185 that he'd retire. Shogun Rua calls him the Anderson Silva of the lightweight division. I call him possibly the best striker in the sport. Knuckles, knees, elbows, name just about any sharp joint and he'll put it in your face. Best featherweight in the biz and there's not even a question about it. When it comes to skills, the guy they call "Scarface" has all kinds of little friends and there's no Sosa in this version of the movie.

3. George "Rush" St. Pierre

I should be very clear about this: the only reason I don't have GSP higher right now is because there's no telling whether or not he's going to come back as the same guy after ripping up his ACL. It won't be any picnic either, he's got a very formidable opponent in Carlos Condit waiting for him when he gets back. I fully expect GSP to tear out Condit's heart and feed it to him, but until I see it happen, I'll have to reserve my judgement. GSP may be my favorite fighter of all time, but in recent fights he has been criticized for not being able to finish his opponents off. I'm not going there. GSP is way too precise for me to question the guy's knockout ability. In my opinion St. Pierre is the most precise fighter in the history of MMA, and I don't care who you want to put up there against him. It's not limited to just his striking ability either, he always knows the right move for the particular situation and his execution is virtually flawless. When he wants a takedown, he's going to get one, and when he gets one fighters usually end up in more trouble than they can handle.

2. Jon "Bones" Jones

Might be the best young talent in MMA history, and quite possibly the most athletically gifted fighter in the sport today. The guy's so good it's hard at this point to tell if he even has all the tools that the most versatile fighters in the business have because he hasn't been forced to use them yet. Few people can instinctively strike with the type of vicious, unpredictability that Jones displays, but his game clearly goes farther than just being able to beat a guy senseless. He's just too fast, too strong, and most importantly too damn creative to be stopped right now. Powerful enough to pick up the big boys and slam them yet quick enough to barrage them with combination uppercuts and knees, Jon Jones could make the prime of Roy Jones Jr's career look like one of those movie prequels where the protagonist is still trying to find himself. Don't be the least bit shocked if Jones becomes the consensus pound-for-pound fighter the second Anderson Silva calls it a career, or Chael Sonnen beats Silva in a rematch.

1. Anderson "The Spider" Silva

You won't find more agreement on a best pound-for-pound fighter in the sport than you will for Anderson Silva. The Brazilian has defended his title for over 2,000 days and counting. Admittedly, I question Silva's chin a bit, because he rarely takes a great deal of punishment, and when he does he doesn't fair as well. That said, the guy's been simply dominant, and despite being 37, Silva still looks like he's got a few years left in him. His reach gives opponents so many problems that you might as well immediately write of anybody who isn't at least comparatively close in wingspan, because they're going to have to worry about too many other factors. There isn't anybody in his class who can stand up and strike with him but that's the only place you're going to find any level of comfort against him. On the mat Silva won't necessarily pound you to death, he's more likely to choke you out until you're really really close to it. Most of the fighters on this list would probably agree, Silva is the world's best. Given his track record, it's hard to imagine what else you'd have to do to earn the title "best pound for pound fighter in the world".

Euro 2012: The Final

Well it’s here, Spain v. Italy in the 2012 European Championships.  Spain has squeaked in against an impressive if not effective Portugal while Italy stormed past Germany in a tactically brilliant performance of their own.  Which side wins will be a strange result of two extremely different tactical philosophies.

Italy is renowned for their defensive strength and counterattacking abilities.  But since Cesare Prandelli took over the Azzurri in 2010 they’ve seemed to be a more adventurous, attacking side.  This “new” Italy may have been a bit of a paper tiger though.  Italy finished first in their qualifying group with 10 points to spare while only conceding two goals in 10 games, all while “rebuilding” after their poor performance in the 2010 World Cup.  Maybe it wasn’t different tactics, maybe it was just their opponents.  Qualifying matches include everyone, even the Faroe Islands.  The two most difficult opponents the Azzurri have played in this year’s Euros (Spain and Germany) have seen them play a style that’s very similar to their historical Catenaccio.  Defensive stability over offensive frivolity.  But it’s served them well.

Germany’s high energy offense created a lot of chances as expected but the Azzurri knew how to handle it and in the end, for all of Germany’s chances they couldn’t score until a 90th minute penalty.  The opening game against Spain was remarkably similar in terms of opportunities.  And while they started their tournament with a strange formation their defense was again a rock that was only penetrated successfully once.

Spain on the other hand has played their usual ball hogging, passing clinic style of dominating play that has served them well for the last 4 years.  With the absence of David Villa they’ve been a lot less effective than in past years but they’re overall play has seen them make it to another final.

It’s almost perfect how much the two sides play into each other’s hands.  Similar to José Mourinho’s Inter vs. Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona back in 2010 one side will dominate possession while the other will patiently wait for their chances.

I'm calling it right now, it's going to penalties.

And Italy is going to win.

Two world renowned styles of play, two world class goal keepers, two playmakers with experience to burn, and two sides that have a point to make.  It’s time to kick back and enjoy another one, and if you’re in Minnesota remember to buy your beer on Saturday.

Cheers!

Third round of group games: England vs. Ukraine

All right all right, here’s the England post.

It seems like a combination of events has taken a bit of pressure off of the England squad.  There’s no real expectation that they’ll win the tournament, Hodgson’s appointment as manager with so little time to prepare seems more like a caretaker roll than a permanent position, and with so many problems with the lineup before everything got started, people were more concerned with who was going to end up going than how far they would go.

Strangely they’ve been showing their calmness in the way that they play.  The game against Ukraine was interesting as England basically gave the ball to the hosts for the first 30 minutes of the game.  They were tested but not too severely; patiently trying to hit on the counter attack as Welbeck, Rooney, and Young acted as outlets when they could.  Things opened up after that as England had a lot more possession late into the first half and across the second.

But for the first third of the game Ukraine was in control, not that you would have noticed by the way they bottled their attacks.  You could see where a player like Shevchenko would become a national hero just by being able to finish where others couldn’t.  And where Ukraine didn’t take their chances, England did, at least once.

England won a corner early in the second half and after play restarted Gerrard somehow dribbled through and back around a defender out on the wing and sent in a low cross that really should have been taken care of by at least two defenders (and the goalie).  As it squeaked through a series of hapless Ukrainians it fell to Rooney who was perfectly placed to head it home.  Not the prettiest goal you’ll ever see but probably one of the easiest that Rooney will ever score.

John Terry, making "cleaning up your own mess"
look incredibly difficult.

And that’s where my criticism will start.  England will see Italy in the quarter finals and Italy’s defense will most assuredly never be described as hapless, that cross would never have made it through.  If John Terry misjudges a long ball against Italy like he did in the 62nd minute against Ukraine, it won’t be Marko Devic who will be given a 1v1 with Joe Hart, it’s going to be Antonio Di Natale.

I don’t put much stock in the FIFA rankings but Italy is #12 and Ukraine is #52 and while you can only play the teams in front of you, I have to wonder how England will shape up against this resurgent Italy that can attack AND defend.  Pirlo has turned into everyone’s underdog favorite to win player of the tournament and there’s something about the Italian team that resembles their successful sides of the past.  There is some sort of quiet confidence that comes from having had such a poor showing in South Africa.  Everyone knows that they are “rebuilding”, so maybe like the English the pressure is off.  Maybe like the English the media hasn’t affected them so much this time around.  Or, maybe like the English there is a golden generation of players that is already half way out the door and the remaining players have one more chance to mount a serious title challenge before they are all replaced by a younger generation.

Why Not This Way?

While Aiden was napping last week, I took the time to think about things that I normally don't think about.  Things like, if I can't control 1 child, how on earth am I going to control 3?  Also, why are the NFL divisions so different from every other sport?  In baseball, basketball, and hockey, teams are placed together to maximize rivalries and distance.  The NFL... not so much.  Think about how the Jets and Giants only play together once every 4 seasons.  The Raiders and the 49ers also only play each other once every 4 years.  The NFL already makes a killing in revenue and interest and things like that, but imagine how it could be if the divisions looked like this:

NFC 1:  Minnesota, Green Bay, Detroit, Chicago.
No changes needed here.  Every match-up is big, and the geography makes sense.



NFC 2: Seattle, Kansas City, Denver, St. Louis.
Probably the division with the most difficult group of teams to work with, but if the NFL ever decides to expand, Portland/Salt Lake could probably make this more reasonable.  Rams/Chiefs would have massive potential.




NFC 3: Dallas, New Orleans, Houston, Carolina.
This was a little tricky as well, but if Spurs/Mavericks is anything to consider, Cowboys/Texans could be a Monday night fixture for years to come.  This division is ridiculously strong now, but I think this would be one of the weaker divisions as far as rivalries are concerned.



NFC 4: Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Miami, Jacksonville.
Florida would have it made here.  This is great for travel, but busting Miami out of the AFC, where they have been one of the traditional powers more or less since the 1970's, would be a hard thing for the NFL to do.



AFC 1: Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Cleveland.
It's because of these 4 that I thought of this in the first place.  Reds/Pirates of the 1970's.  Penn State/Ohio State.  Ohio/Pennsylvania.  I understand why the Ravens are in this division, but it'd be great if they could get moved.

 

AFC 2: Baltimore, Washington, Indianapolis, Tennessee.
I really like this one actually, because I think the Ravens/Colts have already established something when the Colts left Baltimore, plus every franchise has moved once except for the Redskins.  Baltimore/Washington would be huge.



AFC 3: NYJ, NYG, New England, Buffalo.
Filthy.  The northeast should just crown me King now.  Essentially, a rivalry game no matter who plays who.

AFC 4: San Diego, San Francisco, Oakland, Arizona.
Another tradition move with the 49ers out of the NFC, but honestly, who remembers the 1980's?  This would probably ruin any chance of it happening though, because we all know that Raiders/49ers has recently been more than just a game.




Still, the rivalries would be intense, and the NFL would have more Primetime television.  As if Thanksgiving, Sunday Night, Monday Night, and the occasional Saturday isn't enough already.


 + =

Yes?

Second round of group games: Germany vs. Netherlands

After a disappointing start for the Dutch more than a few anticipated some changes to the line up that lost to a solid Denmark on day one.  But despite the predictions van Marwijk went ahead and kept his formation:  Van Bommel, De Jong, and Sneijder in the middle while Afellay and Robben would be responsible for their width.  Van Persie started the game off up front by showing us how accurate his aim is, his first shot after a beautiful chip through the middle hit Neuer right in the chest, deadly indeed (he did score later on but long after it really made a difference).

But for the most part the Dutch didn’t seem that dangerous.  They kept the ball well and had plenty of possession in the German half of the field but there was always a missing pass, some miscommunicated runs, or someone trying to take too much on rather than passing it off.  Robben of course comes to mind, he seems to be trying to  make up for his penalty miss in the Champions League final, or maybe just his lack of silverware in general.  He’s played for too many good teams to have never won the coveted European trophy.

In general, they seem like a bunch of athletes from different planets who all read the same wiki page on football but learned to play it by themselves.  No intuition, no fluidity, no real penetrating series of passes, but a lot of individual brilliance that would trouble an average team.  Not real effective when the worst team in your group has a FIFA rank of 10.  They kind of reminded me of England in ’06:  individually stellar but the sum of the parts is more than the whole.

Germany on the other hand were above average.  I don’t think they’ve hit full stride yet but they’re getting there.   Gomez capitalized on his chances and to be quite honest they could have been up by even more if Badstuber’s header had gone in, which brings up another point, the Dutch defense.

In my Euro preview I mentioned that how the Dutch defense held up would dictate their fate.  Mathijson and Heitinga have not impressed me and likely have not impressed anyone who has watched one of the Dutch games.  Their marking is intermittent and their positioning is out of sync with the fullbacks.  But to be fair, I don’t think it all their fault.  I also said that Van Bommel and De Jong might be weak links and they have proved to be so.  In the Germany game you could see ridiculous amounts of space around the German midfielders, players who are going to make you pay if you give them time.  The Dutch were waiting for the players to get the ball and then collapsed on them rather than preventing the pass in the first place, or at least preventing them from turning without hesitation.  In the end they looked old, tired, and defeated before the game even started.

The season marches on

Memorial Day has passed.  The veil of "Small Sample Size" is starting to lift.  Water is seeking its level.  Albert Pujols is hitting again.  And all seems a little more right with the baseball world.  Except it's not.

- The Washington Nationals may be the best team in baseball.  Second-most wins in all of MLB (behind the Dodgers, of all teams), and a +38 run differential to indicate they might not be a fluke.  The best team ERA and WHIP in baseball help a lot to overcome a sub-par 230 runs scored (4th-worst in NL).  For some perspective, the Nationals' team WHIP is 1.14.  The same as 2011 David Price, Tim Hudson, and Ricky Romero.  Strasburg, Gonzalez, and the whole of that staff could man the All-Star team with good reason.  Maybe it doesn't hold up, but they put a hurtin' on the Sox in Fenway last weekend.  Contender.  Definitely, in my mind. 

Oh, and this guy on offense, he's good -

- Stop me if you've heard this one before, but the Pittsburgh Pirates are still above .500 and a game behind Cincy in the NL Central.  Seems like they've done this a few times the past few years, but it's eventually got to get them out of their streak of ineptitude, right?  I'm not as sure about these guys being sustainable, though.  Their offense is Andrew McCutchen.  That's nice, but that's it.  He and Neil Walker are the only two regulars with an OBP over .300.  Not avg, OBP.  That's pretty much not very good.  Pedro Alvarez made a brief appearance as something resembling relevance, but now he's posting a .200/.265/.400 line, and thus we don't care anymore.  The pitching staff is led by James McDonald, A.J. Burnett, and Erik Bedard.  I know, who who and who?  Well, we know the oft-injured Bedard well enough, and I'm sure he'll be hurt by the 4th of July.  Burnett is getting the NL bump, so I feel like he is what he's going to be, and a FIP of 3.62 compared to an ERA of 3.93 means that, if anything, a slight uptick may be in order.  McDonald came to the Pirates from the Dodgers as part of a package for Octavio Dotel.  Dotel's been on about 7 teams (ok, actually he's on his 5th team since PIT, but whatev) since then, and McDonald is only throwing up a sub-1 WHIP and a career-high 3.3 K/BB.  They're trying to rise above the effects of a negative run differential, and I just can't see it lasting.  Maybe next year, guys.  Pretender.

.
- Paging the Boston Red Sox, 2012 seems to have quite gotten underway without you..  Or maybe you could bribe Lady Physio to leave you alone for a while. This team hasn't had their optimal starting 9 on the field yet this year, and it may never happen.  Youkilis has been hurt off and on, Ellsbury has missed much of the season, with much more to go, and Crawford has yet to see the field.  On top of that, what was supposed to be an at least solid pitching staff with Lester and Buchholz and Beckett just hasn't been.  3rd-worst in MLB in ERA is just not going to get it done, but a 20th-ranked WHIP indicates a slight uptick may be on the way.  And I do emphasize slight.  Starters have been bad, bullpen's been bad, it's just a mess.  However, the #2 offense in terms of runs scored also means they can't be bad forever, either.  Only 2 games under .500 and 6.5 games out of first, they're not out of it yet.  Bubble.  Check back in a month.


- These two guys on Anaheim are really lighting it up.  First baseman and outfielder, they're leading this team back into the race.  Pujols?  Hunter?  Nooope.  Mark Trumbo and Mike Trout.  Ok, so Trumbo's not playing first anymore, but the point stands.  He leads the team in HR with 14 and OPS with 1.002.  That's right, he's got an OPS over 1000.  It's not Nine Thousaaaaaaaand, but it might as well be.  It's amazing, and he's completely locked in right now. 
As for that Trout kid, he's only posting a .958 OPS on his own.  And playing Gold Glove defense in CF.  Ya know, no big deal.  He's better than Harper.  He might be a top 5 overall OF in the game already.

- Now for the homer pick, Trevor Plouffe.  Yeah, he's finally broken over the Mendoza line, now just up to .231, and that's with an insanely hot June - 9 G, 5 HR, 12 RBI, .417 avg.  He's also sporting a crazy .278 ISO number.  ISO is a value that represents, essentially, extra bases per at bat, and is (total bases - hits)/at bats.  Presently Ryan Braun is running a .277 ISO.  Only the biggest sluggers in the game can sustain a .250, which translates to one double every 4 at bats, regardless of how many singles or outs are in between.  It's a value that represents power, and if he can sustain this, a lineup core of Mauer, Willingham, Morneau, Doumit, and Plouffe may actually be one that might pull a struggling team out of the cellar.

- Finally, this episode's call-up to watch for: Danny Hultzen, SEA.  Last year's #2 overall pick, Hultzen was said to have been picked at that slot primarily because of how close his abilities had already brought him to being major-league ready.  He's posted a 1.00 WHIP in 62 innings at AA and has scouts already of the mindset that his talents are beyond what the minor leagues can test.  I have to think that, despite his role in last week's no-hitter, Kevin Millwood was and is little more than a space saver for Hultzen.  It's a matter of time.

- Also a topic of conversation is this phenomenon of this weekend, which will be a daily feature come next season, and that is interleague play.  I'm a fan of it, myself, as seeing teams like the Cubs and Phillies come town is a rare treat, though I'd be interested to see if they could swap the rules based on home park (i.e. pitchers hit in AL parks, and vice versa), just so a team's fans could see a different flavor of baseball.  But no matter how you feel, it's here to stay.  What do you think?

First round of group games: Spain v. Italy

As the beginning of the European Championships approached opening day, the defending champs’ first fixture became a more and more enticing prospect.

Italy has lost on penalties to Spain in Euro 2008, embarrassed themselves with a group stage exit in World Cup 2010, and retired most of the players that had contributed to their success in the 2006 World Cup.  During that time Serie A has seen itself devastated from a match fixing scandal, seen those club teams that were found guilty return to power, had an offensive minded rebirth thanks to new coach Cesare Prandelli, and are now in the midst of yet another match fixing scandal which Prandelli suggested may justify their possible withdrawal from the tournament.

In short, no one was really sure which Italy was going to show up, and after their opening tie with Spain they are still the team that everyone is going to be unsure about, even as there were a lot of twists and turns after the first 8 games of the tournament.

A surprising 3-5-2 formation left De Rossi playing alongside Chiellini and Bonucci more often than Pirlo and Thiago Motta.  A position he played with poise and grace as he distributed the ball better than most center backs will.  Chiellini showed why some rate him as the first or second best center back in the world by closing down anyone that came near him and laughing off any cross that the much shorter Spaniards would dare to float in.  And Andrea Pirlo…well there’s a reason that Juventus went undefeated this year.

They're good, but seriously short.

Spain as well brought in a surprising formation as the absence of David Villa and the unconvincing Fernando Torres left Vincent Del Bosque with a big question mark at the top of his team sheet.  So he decided not to fill it.  Spain played a 4-3-3 with no recognized striker and no out and out wingers, effectively a 4-6-0.  And while Spain are good at the short game, it became incredibly predictable.  There was no point man to lead a break, no wide men to stretch the defense and create holes, and at times you could see all 6 of their midfielders within the same 20 by 20 box defended by 2 Italians, like a practice exercise.  It left them with half chances that a talented and organized Italian defense could turn away, and long shots that won’t bother a keeper like Buffon.  They did get through and score with a clever side-footed pass from Silva to Fabregas, these guys are the best passers in the world, but there weren’t that many out and out chances.

Bringing on Jesús Navas and Fernando Torres did lighten their game up as you could find Navas on the right wing literally waving his arms as he was so open due to Italy’s 3-5-2 formation.  And Torres, well his finishing has been awful for the last 18 months, but his runs were well timed and he gave that Azzurri defense more than one scare.

They say that every great team has a shelf life of about 3 years, and Spain’s run has been pretty incredible:  Euro 2008, World Cup 2010, Barcelona winning the Champions league in 2009 and 2011, Real Madrid always threatening.  But at some point their successful brand of football will eventually fade like the Dutch in the 70’s and the Italians of the 80/90’s.

My hope is for tiki-taka to go a different route.  Like an actor, say Jack Nicholson or Christopher Walken, who is so successful and so unique that they stop performing as characters in films and just show up as caricatures of themselves; Spain’s midfield strength is so great that if they continue to rely on it at the expense of width and defense, their tactics could metaphorically start eating themselves.  They’ve already started with their forwards.

But I could be wrong, they’ll probably beat Ireland by 4-5 goals.

Groups C & D

            Easier to read in two parts.  And I need to keep you all hungry.

Group C

Spain: Quite simply, the best team in the world.  When I first got interested in the sport, France was beginning their run toward many titles.  They finished 4^th in the 1996 Euros, won the 1998 World Cup, and won the 2000 Euros. This Spanish team can improve upon that mark with a win at these 2012 Euros.  They probably should too.

Neutral standpoint: You’ll be most likely cheering for the best.  At times, it might not be very exciting.  They prefer to keep the ball, and they’ll pass it conservatively to make sure that happens.  They have no problem winning games 1-0, as long as it means titles.  Total domination of the game, but maybe not the way you think.  Fantastic talent though.

Player to watch:  If you follow the sport, Juan Mata.  He has been a revelation for Chelsea this season, and is very exciting while on the ball.  If not, watch Iniesta.  Undoubtedly, one of the best players of our generation.  He is always around the ball. 

Italy:  They aren’t quite on the level of 2006, but still one of the best nation’s in the world.  They are somewhat in a transition period, as the players that led them for many years: Fabio Cannavaro, Alessandro Del Piero, and Francesco Totti are no longer playing on the highest level.  They do have some nice players in Andrea Pirlo and Gianluigi Buffon, but both are also on the wrong said of 30.  That’s not to say they can’t win the title though.

Neutral standpoint: They are a very precise, organized national team.  It’s not going to be the most exciting, but they do have some interesting personalities, and they could provide for moments of inspiration.  Between Mario Balotelli and Daniele De Rossi though, there probably won’t be a dull moment.

Player to watch:  Mario Balotelli.  You can’t take your eyes off of him.  Honestly.  He won’t let you.

Croatia: One of the underdogs that might actually do something.  They have a lot of good players that nobody knows, plus two or three others that people do know.  They play an ambitious style of football, and their manager is one of the best. (Slaven Bilic)

Neutral standpoint:  A fun team to get behind.  I cheered for them in France ’98, and they were a wonder brace by Lilian Thuram away from potentially making the final.  (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kp8QHXtQoIo).  They have a lot of confidence for a small nation and it shows.  Their match vs. Italy could be one of the biggest of the tournament. 

Player to watch:  I could get fired from blogs if I don’t mention Luka Modric, so here he is.  One of the best and most exciting players in the world at his position.  He holds the ball better than any player in the world outside of Barcelona, which is impressive, considering his size.  Crucial for him to be in form, if they are to advance.

Ireland:  A wonderful story.  After getting royally screwed (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxw1-Id91lQ), they kept their heads down and made it to the European finals.  But as most sequels go, it won’t be as good as the first, and this is probably as far as it goes.  Well coached, and great team spirit, but probably just not enough talent to go far. 

Neutral standpoint:  Myself included, this will be a fun team to cheer for in 2012.  Their fans are great, their story is great, and anyone can appreciate the massive underdog role.  Think of them as the Detroit Lions of Europe.  Perhaps their time is soon.

Player to watch:  Robbie Keane.  Kind of the one stable pick for this nation since the last time they appeared in the finals. (2002)  He is currently playing in between the Premier League and the MLS, but for new followers of the sport, this could be a player you might see for many years to come. (LA Galaxy)

Group D

Ukraine: The other hosts.  It’s nice to see this nation get some recognition, and who would’ve thought that they would host a major tournament before the Russians?  They are a very mysterious side though; there is hope to get out of the group, but in all likelihood they will be staying home after the first round.

Neutral standpoint:  Not much reason to, other than nostalgic Chelsea supporters.

Player to watch:  Andrey Shevchenko.  This is probably his swan song, and he really was a fantastic player for a long time. Good character guy too, but it was still nice to see him struggle during his run in the Chelsea blue. 

England:  I always feel nervous writing about the English, because it’s hard to take off the tinted glasses for a group of players that I know all to well.  This group missed the 2008 Euros when they were quite possibly at their greatest stature as individuals.  They started off poorly at the last World Cup, and then ran into the mighty Germans, Lampard’s disallowed goal notwithstanding.  Could win, but also might not score.

Neutral standpoint:  I’m not sure.  For a lot of Americans, it’s the second favorite team.  They have a lot of recognizable faces in Wayne Rooney, Frank Lampard, and Steven Gerrard, but how high is the likeability for any of them?  I would be happy if they finally won a Euro title, but part of me wants England to have to wait longer.

Player to watch:  Since Rooney misses the first 2 games to suspension, I would say John Terry.  He inadvertently costs Chelsea Champions league title in 2008, doesn’t play in 2012 and they win.  It’ll be interesting to see how he handles all the change. (New manager, partner in defense, midfield, etc...)

France:   From being the best nation in the world for quite some time, then shattering to pieces in 2002, picking themselves up for a 2006 World Cup final, and finally pandemonium and madness in 2010.  I don’t know what to tell you all, only that they have the talent to win everything, but also the personality to lose it at the highest level.  Not lose as in the match, but just lose it.

Neutral standpoint:  When you least expect it, that’s what I always say.  I didn’t think they were made of Champions in 1998, now I believe that is the best group of players of all time.  Looked set to repeat in 2002, bombed and didn’t win a match.  Rode the bald head of one Zinedine Zidane until the final 15 minutes of 2006, then I’m not sure where they were in 2010.  Certainly not in South Africa.  Chose at your own risk.

Player to watch:  Karim Benzema.  This is the time for him to move into the upper echelon of this generation of strikers.  Just like the early naughties had the likes of Patrick Kluivert, Djibril Cisse and Fernando Morientes that just couldn’t reach, so does our generation with the Benzema’s.  When on though, he is class.

Sweden:  They completely changed their style mid-campaign, but it worked out and here they are in the finals.  They were able to beat Holland at home, which should give them confidence coming in.  They have one of the world’s best players in Zlatan Ibrahimovic, but that might be about it.  But in this group, it may be enough.

Neutral standpoint: Great fans, good support, and their football is pretty entertaining.  Zlatan along with Miroslav Klose of Germany are two of the most underrated players of our generation.  He is exciting to watch, has a touch of flair, but a little arrogance as well.  Probably won’t win, but you could do worse. 

Player to watch:  Zlatan Ibrahimovic.  This will probably be his last major tournament, unless he opts for the World Cup in Brazil in 2014.  He is at the top of his form right now, and is one of the best players in the world.  They could squeak into the QF’s, so you might get to see him a bunch.

Predictions: 

Group A:  1. Poland  2. Russia                 Group B: 1. Germany  2. Holland

Group C:  1. Spain  2. Croatia                  Group D:  1. France  2. Sweden

Poland vs. Holland    Winner: Holland

Germany vs. Russia    Winner: Germany

Spain vs. Sweden       Winner: Spain

France vs. Croatia       Winner: Croatia

Holland vs. Germany    Winner:  Holland

Spain vs. Croatia        Winner: Spain

This might bore some, but I just have a feeling...

Spain vs. Holland    Winner...................................................................

2012 Euro preview part 2 - The Contenders

In every tournament there are favorites, personal and collective, and then there are the contenders, the teams that most people can agree have a serious chance of winning.  As it turns out in the 2012 European Championships there seems to be three teams that everyone agrees on, we’re going to preview four because every tournament has a dark horse, and who doesn’t love a dark horse.

Spain – The defending champs will find that retaining their title as European champions will be much more difficult than was to win it in the first place.  Key injuries to Puyol and Villa are showing chinks in their armor that we haven’t seen in Spain for a long time.

Villa’s injury brings up what could be their biggest problem, a point man.  It’s no secret that the starting eleven for Spain’s teams generally come from Real Madrid and Barcelona, two teams with rather capable point men who can capitalize on their tiki-taka/ball possession style of play.  David Villa has been able to be that player when they apply this style of play to the national team.  In both World Cup 2010 and Euro 2008 he led the team with 4 and 5 goals each, and always looked dangerous while his strike partner Fernando Torres looked like he had lost his touch.  Without Villa they’ll be relying on Torres to be the point man all by himself, and while he has had a small surge of form at the end of the season for Chelsea, leading a team through a tournament as difficult as the Euros might prove too much for him.

Puyol’s injury brings up another thinly veiled flaw in the Spain team, their defense.  While most of the time Spain doesn’t have too much defending to do, the Puyol/ Piqué combination has worked well for Barcelona as well as Spain.  Without Puyol, Sergio Ramos will be stepping into the center of defense and it looks like Arbeloa will be starting on the right.  But playing Ramos in the center isn’t where I question their defense, Mourinho prefers to play Ramos there which is why he tried to bring Maicon over from Inter when he moved to the Bernabéu.  The problem is that Arbeloa is not the world class right back that Ramos is.  This will stunt their offense and shrink their width a little bit, and while that might not sound like much, remember that Spain didn’t exactly stroll through the 2010 World Cup, they won their last 4 games 1-0.

Summary – I don’t think this is Spain’s year.  As both Madrid and Barca found out in the Champion’s league, the better team doesn’t always win.  Between the key injuries, club form, and the inevitable complacency that every successful team succumbs to, I think it’s someone else’s time to shine.

Germany – Spain’s biggest rivals in recent years, Germany’s strength comes from their youth and energy.  With only two players over 30 (goalkeeper Weise and tournament goal scoring specialist Klose), they’ll be looking towards tournament veterans Lahm and Schweinsteiger to lead them to victory.  As they are both the heart and soul of German club giants Bayern Munich you might question whether or not they and fellow teammates Müller, Badstuber, Gómez, Kroos, and Neuer have the confidence to maneuver a tournament of this size at this time.  They came in second in the league to Dortmund, got crushed by the same team 5-2 in the German cup final and then lost on penalties to Chelsea in the Champions league finals.  I guess in the end you could say they were right there in every competition, but seeing the look on Schweinsteiger’s face after he hit the post in the Champion’s league final leads me to believe that this will have to be Özil’s tournament if Germany are to win it all.

But that might not be too much of a stretch.  Özil’s career has skyrocketed since he stepped in as Michael Ballack’s replacement in the 2010 World Cup.  His subsequent move to Madrid allowed him to fend off some guy named Kaka as the starting playmaker for the Spanish giants.  You feel that if Özil can recreate his club form for six games this summer then Germany may be able finally come out on top if they meet Spain in the final.

Summary – Germany have the skills, energy, and flexibility to go as far as they want in this tournament.  The true test for them will be their mental toughness, particularly if they come up against Spain who have sent them home in the last two tournaments.

Netherlands – While the Netherlands don’t have quite the star power that Spain or Germany have (not that they really lack star power), they do seem to have the right blend of players to challenge anyone they come up against.  They have their top tier playmaker in Sneijder, two on-fire strikers in Huntelaar and Van Persie, Robben who can create magic at the drop of a hat, and behind that a host of journeymen that allow the attack minded players to do what they do.

Strangely they’ve been drawn into the same group as Germany and Portugal which have most people suggesting they’ll finish second in the group and then end up playing Spain in the Semi finals.  While there are not many that could say they don’t attack well (they scored more than anyone during the qualifying games), the center of their midfield and defense may be their undoing.  Captain Mark Van Bommel is now 35 and while he had a solid season for Milan the rapid pace of the Euros may see him spending a game or two on the sidelines.  His Defensive midfield partner Nigel De Jong has found it more difficult to find his club form.  The glut of midfield players at Manchester City has left De Jong on the sidelines more often than he would like.  His 21 league appearances this year include 10 substitute appearances, not the role a 27 year old midfielder wants to play in a championship winning side.

The center of their defense also leaves something to be desired.  Personally I’ve never liked either Heitinga or Mathijsen.  Both had a lot of promise as youngsters but ended up playing for second tier teams rather than championship contenders.  You can’t deny that they kept it together during the World Cup, letting through 6 goals on their way to the final, but you feel that at some point they’re going to be found out.

Summary – The Netherlands promise to be one of the most entertaining teams in the tournament.  Their attacking ability is second to none but their defense could be their undoing.  The problem with journeymen defenders is that they don’t quite show up as consistently as star defenders.  If Heitinga and Mathijsen can hold it together Holland might find themselves in another final.

France – Ah the underdog.  It’s not too difficult to understand why France has performed poorly since the 2006 World Cup final.  You don’t just move on after you lose a presence like Zinedine Zidane and their attempts to find a replacement has been rather ill fated.  The 2008 combination of Toulalan and Makelele lacked creativity while in 2010 Gourcuff didn’t live up to his promise which is what he always seems to do.

But since Laurent Blanc took over they’ve been solid in both the qualifiers and their friendlies.  I wouldn’t call them clinical but they seem like a team that’s been building towards something mentally.  We already know they have the players:  Ribéry, Nasri, Malouda, Ben Arfa, Giroud and Benzema can intimidate any defense.  What they need is for one of those players to step up and be a dominant presence when the rest of the team has run out of ideas.  The other three squads on this list have that presence, Xavi, Özil, and Sneijder can be relied on to come up with bits of magic when the rest of the team look out of breath and out of ideas.

Beyond that, Blanc has taken a lot of the politics out of the squad.  The suspensions handed out after the last world cup placed him firmly in charge of the team with nothing for the players to do but concentrate on their game.  Henry is gone which was the last huge name on the team and the captaincy has been handed to goalkeeper Hugo Lloris which is about as uncontroversial as eating your Wheaties for breakfast.  Evra never really struck me as a leader anyways, him and Ribery are more workman like players than beating hearts.

Summary – Blanc has set this team up to succeed, it’s now firmly up to the players to make it happen.  There’s always one player who turns into a superstar during these tournaments and for France to win it all that player is going to have to be on their team.  Look for Nasri or Benzema to make England’s center backs look silly during their first game.