MLB Offseason Review (part 1)

Hey folks, I'm back for a little mid-winter baseball talk.  Your team didn't make the playoffs in the NFL?  Hope springs anew for your stickball team!  Down in the dumps because the NHL greed contest is keeping them off the ice?  Help me look forward to the eventual ice melt and the sunny days beyond!  So, let's recap the offseason in chronological order, starting nowhere better than at the end!

- San Francisco wins the World Series in 4 games.

Obviously, as you read here, I had San Fran winning that series, but not that easily. After Verlander got knocked around in game 1 - beat by Barry Zito, no less - the Giants had the Series by the short 'n curlies, with advantageous pitching matchups in games 2 and 4, and a roughly even shot in game 3. The Tigers offense was never allowed off the ground, and it was over.
Congrats to San Francisco for their 2nd title in 3 years.

- Miguel Cabrera wins the AL MVP over Mike Trout



I think the wrong guy won. Now, don't get me wrong, Cabrera was a deserving candidate, winning a trifecta of league titles that bear a significant amount of emotional cache among baseball fans and media alike. He had a historical season. But so did Trout. Trout matched or bested Cabrera in traditional batting numbers - .326/399/.564 vs Miggy's .330/.393/.606. The differences there between them are a matter of 3 hits in the season, or 6 walks, or 24 total bases. These are largely negligible on the breadth of a season. The total base discrepancy is a bit more significant, though Cabrera's home run advantage accounts for much of it. What tipped it for me was the addition of speed and defense in Trout's game over Cabrera. Trout lead the league with 49 stolen bases, contrasted with Cabrera's 4, not to mention the impact of any extra bases taken because of his speed, which are not so easily measured here numerically. In terms of defense, numerical measures are much less precise, though Trout consistently rated as well above average at a premium defensive position, i.e. 11.0 UZR in CF, and Cabrera was well below average at a less premium position, i.e. -9.9 UZR at 3B. For me, those things outweigh Cabrera's power advantage and RBI totals.

- Toronto Blue Jays sign 3B Maicer Izturis.
Chicago Cubs sign RHP Scott Baker.
Detroit Tigers sign OF Torii Hunter

None of these moves is particularly earth-shaking. Izturis is a nice complementary piece, especially as a backup infielder. Solid defense, hits for average, decent speed. He's a useful player. Baker's a decent gamble for the money he was given ($5.5M w/incentives). I had hoped he would return to the Twins on a similar make-good sort of deal, but I'm also not disappointed to see him go. It's a good move for him to go to the NL, and it's good for the Cubs to get a potentially tradeable asset at a reasonable price if he pans out. I'm generally unable to knock a one-year deal too badly, and this one's OK. Torii moves into Detroit's outfield as an upgrade over whoever he ends up replacing - he's better on both sides of the ball than Boesch or Rhymes or Delmon or whoever else Detroit put out there aside from Austin Jackson. It may be worth a win, maybe two, to the Tigers next year, which will likely keep them atop the division.

- Twins trade OF Denard Span to Nationals for MiLB RHP Alex Meyer

 This was a very interesting trade across the board.  The Twins shipped their most valuable trade chip in terms of player skill + contract status to Washington, who returned a first-round-caliber arm.  For Washington, this fills their need for a bona-fide CF and lead-off man.  Span's career .357 OBP fits well at the top of the lineup, with 20 SB speed to go with it.  This allows them to keep Werth and Harper on the corners, where their skills fit better, and keeps them from playing Morse or some similar statue-like defender in the outfield.  Their pitching staff will certainly see some benefit from this move.  It's the sort of move you want your team to make if your team is of playoff caliber.  For the Twins, it's a move that actually gives them hope.  Span, while a useful player and a popular one, to boot, was not going to be instrumental in this team's return to the playoffs based on his contract and age.  Better to move him now, while at close to his peak value, than to wait for him to potentially get hurt again, or decline physically, or any number of other things.  In return, they pick up a power arm and potentially-legitimate top-line starter, which is the sort of thing the system has been bereft of for a decade - not since Liriano's emergence has there been a pitcher with this much talent in the Twins' system.  Of course, as a prospect, he's not a sure thing, and there are any number of things that could go wrong before he arrives in the majors, but even then, it's these sort of high-upside gambles that an irrelevant team needs to take to attempt to return to relevance.  If he works out, it will more than worth the cost.

- Braves trade RHP Tommy Hanson to Angels for RHP Jordan Walden

This is an interesting trade for much different reasons than the above one.  Both teams are, in effect, selling low on an asset here that once may have been thought to be an integral part of their team's future.  Hanson looked like a legit #2 starter for the Braves before shoulder issues sapped his velocity and, with it, his effectiveness.  A trade like this signifies that the Braves don't think he can be rehabilitated, and are trying to get while the getting's good.  A move to the AL for Hanson doesn't likely bode well for his numbers, but the Angels sorely needed starting pitching after so many of last year's rotation have vacated the premesis (Greinke, Big Erv, Haren), and they needed to take a gamble that he could recapture at least some of his magic.  If the shoulder recovers, he's the sort of durable guy that can go 200 innings easily.  For the Braves, I'm more curious why they wanted Walden moreso than getting rid of Hanson.  The Braves have a wealth of young pitching ready for the majors and only so many rotation spots to give to them, so Hanson was clearly an excess to be moved.  The bullpen, however, with Kimbrel as its crown jewel, was a strong element to their squad.  I would've thought an outfielder or 3B or prospect depth would've been more their target, but it seems that having Walden across from Venters in front of Kimbrel will allow Fredi to play matchups more and keep Venters' innings down this coming year after he was clearly feeling the effects of overuse from '10.  This trade will show its returns soon as both will be key members of their teams' '12 campaigns.

That brings us up to the end of November - December review coming soon.

The Excruciating Road To A Title: Why Everyone Should Respect The Heat’s 2012 Championship

It all started in the 2004-2005 season, a year in which Dwyane Wade pleaded for some help, and the team responded in kind giving up a moderately bright future in exchange for one of the most dominant players in NBA history, the mammoth Shaquille O’Neal. The trade included the versatile and still young Lamar Odom, Caron Butler, Brian Grant, and a first round pick. While the trade forced the Heat to give away a moderately promising future, what they got back ended up being the key piece to a title. Unfortunately, it wasn’t meant to be that year as Wade went on to get injured in the Eastern Conference finals against the Detroit Pistons, and Detroit came back to beat the Heat in game seven 88-82.

         However the next season saw Dwyane Wade achieve his vindication. The Heat re-upped their lineup acquiring Jason Williams, Antoine Walker, James Posey, and Gary Payton. When O’Neal went down with an injury colliding with Ron Artest, the Heat began to struggle. As the team languished, head coach Stan Van Gundy resigned his post for what were supposedly family reasons (although many have speculated otherwise) Pat Riley stepped in to take the reigns. In what some analysts call possibly the greatest playoff performance in NBA history, Dwyane Wade rallied the Heat back to the Eastern Conference finals and redeemed himself by aiding the team to a defeat of the defending Eastern Conference champion Pistons to lead the team into the NBA finals. Once there, the Heat proceeded to drop the first two games to a formidable Dallas Mavericks team. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter of game 3 when the Heat turned the tide, and never looked back. Riding a scorching hot Wade averaging 34.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.67 steals, and 1.00 blocks per game the Heat performed one of the NBA finals greatest comebacks rallying back to win the next four games in a row. Finally they had claimed their elusive title, and the gamble for Shaq had paid off.

         However the next season was not so fruitful. Injuries plagued the team, and while they won the division, they floundered into the 4^th seed in the playoffs and were quickly dispatched in the first round by the Bulls 4-0. Things only got worse from there. The following season much of the championship squad was gone. Wade suffered another injury-plagued season, Pat Riley relinquished his role as head coach to have knee surgery, Alonzo Mourning tore a patellar tendon and missed the rest of the season, and a very vocally disgruntled Shaquille O’Neal moaned and groaned his way into a requested trade to the Phoenix Suns. Despite the team winning him a title, and trading him as he asked to be, to the team he asked to be traded to, Shaq still found it necessary to publicly berate the organization and fans before leaving and after leaving Miami. A great consolation after the miserable season, Miami netted the second pick in the NBA draft, but after watching Derrick Rose go off the board in the first pick to the Chicago Bulls who had eliminated them from the playoffs in embarrassing fashion the Heat drafted the highly touted Michael Beasley, who needless to say, had an underwhelming NBA career in Miami while Rose quickly became a superstar.

         Heat fans would spend the next two years wondering what they would do to get back to being a championship caliber team. The fans knew that time was running short; because with a player like Dwyane Wade, you had to show you were willing to be competitive if you wanted to keep an all-star of his caliber around. Wade in turn was making sure everybody else knew that he wouldn’t be signing an extension until the team did just that. The organization was not sending encouraging signs. While Wade’s contract was due to expire in 2010, Pat Riley made it clear that until the 2010 offseason the Heat would be making no major changes to become more competitive. This started a kind of game of chicken if you will, with Wade publicly threatening to leave, and Riley constantly reminding everybody he wouldn’t make a move until his contract was up in 2010. The whole city held their breath for two years wondering if their beloved superstar would even be around by the time the organization was ready to move on anything.

         By the time the 2010 offseason rolled around, Heat fans were in a panic. Off the court problems with his wife and kids made it look incredibly likely that Wade would end up in Chicago along with the superstar they missed out on, Derrick Rose, and the team that had handed them some considerable heartache. Wade’s kids were in Chicago, Wade himself was from Chicago, and there was little doubt his presence in the windy city would make the Bulls an instant competitor. He was going through a very messy divorce that could have seen his wife getting custody of his children, and moving them to their home in Chicago. Wade had recently left Converse to join Michael Jordan’s Jumpman brand, his divorce proceeding were getting messy, and the prospect was growing everyday the Heat stood silent that Wade would end up going north to be with his kids in the Windy City. To make matters worse, Beasley was traded to Minnesota, and the roster was stripped of almost every player, making a non-competitive team even less so.

         Stealing the headlines from anything Heat fans were going through at the time was what was happening in Cleveland. LeBron James was tired of waiting. The efforts to bring in Shaq and Antwan Jamison failed to take the Cavs over the hump, and it was clear that they needed to make a big move in order to keep King James near his hometown. The problem was, nobody wanted to go near his hometown. Amare Stoudamire didn’t want to go to Cleveland. Chris Bosh didn’t want to go to Cleveland. In fact, none of the big names wanted to go to Cleveland. As it became obvious that nobody was going to Ohio to help LeBron, the realization started to sink in. LeBron had to leave to get help. A national outcry began for a city plagued with losing teams that was getting ready to lose a homegrown talent that was the best in his sport. Lost in the shuffle, was any empathy for another city getting ready to lose its most beloved superstar. Unlike the outcry for James to stay in Cleveland, the nation was looking forward to seeing Dwyane Wade playing side-by-side Derrick Rose in a Bulls uniform. Nobody had a tear of compassion for the Magic City.

         Then came the key domino that changed everything. Pat Riley had signed Chris Bosh. While it seemed innocuous to most, I was telling everybody, the King is coming to South Florida. Of course, most people thought he was going to New York, or Chicago, or taking the multitude of other offers. For a while as a longtime Heat fan myself, I was forced to play the role of the rabidly insane homer in order to say what I thought was the overwhelming likelihood. How did I know based on the Bosh signing alone? Once Bosh signed in Miami, it was clear Dwyane Wade was going to finally resign. With the Heat having dumped an entire roster’s worth of salary, and two major superstar already playing in Miami, if Lebron wanted the surest shot at a title there was no way he could risk allowing Pat Riley to use the rest of his cash to put a team around them that could lock him out of a title again no matter where he went. They had the money, they had the superstars, and either Riley was going to spend that cash on James, or he would spend that cash on a supporting cast that could stop him. There was no collusion involved, no under the table talks necessary. There was simply no other choice LeBron could make that had a higher probability of success once those two guys were together on a team with that much cash left to spend. It was either join them, or take the chance of getting beat by them. He simply couldn’t take the chance. It was really that simple and obvious for me. While opting against simply making the announcement on his website as he previously planned, he took ESPN up on their less well thought out plan to announce it on national television. Thus, the decision was born. It was a good decision, announced by a really, really bad one.

         In what was supposed to be a very normal and ordinarily predictable practice for the Heat marketing team, a pep rally was scheduled to announce the formation of the historically formed team that was a good two to three years in the making. The city rejoiced. Their beloved superstar had stayed after years of threatening to leave, and offseason events that made it an incredibly likely scenario. They had obtained a great all-star caliber big man alongside him in Chris Bosh, and most of all, the King was coming. In a city like Miami, it was inevitable you would see the party of all parties celebrating this. Unfortunately, what was supposed to be a local event was also broadcast on the national media. With multiple cities scorned having missed the prospect of obtaining the best player in basketball, the media saw the perfect reason to create a villain, and a pep rally that was supposed to let the steam out of years of panic and worry, turned into a rub-it-in-your-face festival overnight.

         The newly formed big three did something that, had it not been for the disdain involved in everything, should have been widely applauded. They did the rare professional sports act of taking less money in order to win a title. This was wasted on the public’s perception of the Heat becoming the NBA’s bad guys. The following season that brought enormous amounts of pressure like the sports world had never seen, and in the face of another disappearing act by LBJ in the finals, as well as a Dallas Mavericks team I had unwittingly speculated earlier in the season was the deepest team in the league, the Mavs defeated the Heat in one of the sweetest revenges I had ever seen in modern sports. They had finally gotten them back for their incredible collapse at the hands of Dwyane Wade and Shaq in 2006 to win their first title. That offseason, the critics went to town on the franchise, and Lebron took as big a mass media beating one could ever take. The city of Miami got caught in the crossfire as again, little sympathy was shown and the city was vilified alongside him.

         With another offseason to round out the kinks, Riley turned his attention to the bench and solidified the rest of the team a bit. With a healthy Mike Miller returning, the drafting of Norris Cole, and the acquisition of Shane Battier, Miami was much more ready to be title bound, and that’s exactly what they were. Though people doubted their ability to win without an established and proven center, the smarts of Erik Spoelstra and the versatility of their players helped them defy the odds. They proved they could play shut down perimeter defense against Carmelo Anthony and the Knicks in a series that saw Amare Stoudamire and Jeremy Lin on milk cartons. They proved they could beat a big physical team with greats bigs and lots of depth like the Pacers, They proved they could handle a team with a great point guard and lots of big men like the Celtics, and reinforced their ability to stop a team with an intimidating frontcourt and big time superstars in the Oklahoma City Thunder en route to LeBron James & Chris Bosh’s first NBA titles, and it was additions like Mike Miller and Shane Battier who made all the difference in the end. They answered every question they could possibly answer. If you can’t respect what Heat fans had to go through to get here, and what the players had to do to earn that title, what in the world of sports could you possibly respect?