The Championship Games

NFL Championship Games

 

            This is the weekend where most NFL fans’ psyche proceed to forget which teams made it this far during the season.  I have little trouble naming the winner and loser of every Super Bowl since 1967, but what I can’t do is name the teams that made it to their conference’s championship games.  There are a few that make it in the minds of NFL fans, namely the 1998 Minnesota Vikings and the four NFC championship games that the Eagles couldn’t get past in the Andy Reid era.  Today, legacies will be made, past mistakes forgotten, and new memories created.  Enjoy the games everyone!

 

GM 1: San Francisco vs Atlanta

            Most of the sporting world is betting against the Atlanta Falcons this afternoon.  They have a hard time getting past this point, and Matt Ryan has yet to be known as a “playoff quarterback”.  San Francisco has hit their high point, their confidence is running high, and the quarterback switch back in November has worked out beautifully for them.  Both teams do have a couple of ghosts to think about today, and the 49ers really should’ve been in the super bowl last season.  Today, I think both teams want to slow down the tempo in order to keep the other offense off the field.  I believe both teams think that the other teams quarterback is the reason they have been successful up to this point.  Look for both teams to attempt power running games early, and then set up play action and try to take some shots downfield.  I am going to agree with the majority of NFL experts and those casual as well, and pick the 49ers.  Aldon Smith and Justin Smith will make it difficult for Matty Ryan.

 

49ers by 7

 

GM 2:  Baltimore vs New England

            A back story in this matchup as well.  Going back to last year, the Patriots probably were outplayed on their home field, but were able to have a date in the Super Bowl thanks to the slippery hands of Lee Evans, and the nerves of Billy Cundiff.  New England is always a difficult place to play, but Baltimore does have a bit of success here.  I also think that Tom Brady would’ve preferred to say Peyton and the Broncos, than Joe and the Ravens.  Although the Ravens appear to be emotionally spent after last week’s overtime victory, John Harbaugh will probably have an efficient game plan, and the team ready to go this Sunday.  As opposed to the NFC matchup, where I believe the game will be won on the field, I think this game will be decided by the coaches and who has the better game plan.  It’s extremely difficult to bet against Bill Belicheck in this situation, but I do think that the firing of their offensive coordinator and the opening up of the playbook since then plays into the Ravens hands.  Harbaugh gets to see his brother, and for the first time in my life, I will have predicted the super bowl matchup prior to the start of the season.  Maybe the reason for my pick?

Ravens by 3

NFL True MVP's

The Most Valuable Player award is often given to the most outstanding player that season, or who is considered to have had the best season. However, many of us know that it doesn’t always equate to the player who is the most valuable to their team. This is what I call the TMVP, or the Truly Most Valuable Player award. So what’s the difference? This award goes to the player who is most indispensible to his team. To the player who’s team would absolutely collapse and crumble without him more so than any other player out there. Without further addition, here are my contenders for the prestigious TMVP award.

4^th Runner-up: Tom Brady

Photo courtesy of The Brit_2

Normally you’d have to put Tom Brady higher on this list, because as far as anybody knows this team could fall back into decades of mediocrity without him at the reigns. That’s just it though, nobody really knows. Ever since “The Golden Boy” took over for an injured Drew Bledsoe nobody has ever known this team as anything but one of the biggest threats in the NFL. However, Brady has a lot more help now than he did in those early Super Bowl runs. The defense is better, the receivers are better, the running backs are better, the tight ends are better, the whole team is better. Even given that, you can’t say for certain this is more than a 6-win team without Brady on it, it’s simply something we haven’t seen. Given what he accomplished with virtually nothing in the past though, it’s hard to really definitively say how much more than nothing he has right now. There are just too many players who look drastically better with Tom Brady on their team to not have him on this list.

3^rd Runner-up: Aaron Rodgers

Photo courtesy of Mike Morbeck

There’s no question Aaron Rodgers is the spark plug that makes the Packers go, and where would they be without him? Does anybody have any faith in Graham Harrell taking this same team anywhere? While we’ve seen formerly pro-bowl passing options like Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and Jermichael Finley fall to the wayside, it hasn’t stopped Rodgers from being one of the best of the best. That’s impressive, given it’s a status he managed to maintain by relying more on simply serviceable players like Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Randall Cobb. He even mixed a little Tom Crabtree in there. All on a team has barely been able to run the ball the past few years. Make no mistake about it, without Rodgers manning the helm, all would be lost in Lambeau, and little could be done about it.

2^nd Runner-up: Drew Brees

Photo courtesy of IAN RANSLEY DESIGN + ILLUSTRATION

Sure, maybe the New Orleans Saints didn’t have the best season in the world, probably impacted by the whole “bounty-gate” scandal that was there, then kinda-sorta there, then not so much there anymore. Yeah, there’s no question with guys like Sproles, Colston, Jahri Evans, and super-stud Jimmy Graham there is certainly some talent on this team, but no Drew Brees would put this team in the basement the moment he stepped off the field. Forget about statistical leader, Drew Brees is the emotional leader of this team, and while going 7-9 is nothing to brag to anybody about, it is still an impressive feat if you take into consideration that the Saints gave up more points per game than the Raiders, Eagles, and Jaguars. What do you expect to happen if you have to put up 35 points every week to guarantee yourself a victory? Now imagine trying to do that without Drew Brees. Exactly.

1^st Runner-up: Adrian Peterson

Photo courtesy of Mike Morbeck

Take a team with a bad quarterback. Add to that, really bad wide receivers. Now remove the one good wide receiver on the team.  Mix in a bad offensive line. Stir. This should be a recipe for complete and utter disaster. Instead, over 2,000 yards later your running back who was returning from reconstructive knee surgery is dragging a team that should have been fighting for the first pick in the NFL draft into the playoffs. Somebody made the argument that you could have easily put Jared Allen on this list, and the same notion would hold true, the Minnesota Vikings would have completely collapsed. That said, it doesn’t make it any less true that Adrian Peterson was the closest thing you could find to a one-man team that wasn’t a signal caller. Nobody should have been able to do what he did coming back from that injury, nobody should have been able to do what he did even if they weren’t coming back off of injury. Most astoundingly, no one player should have been able to be added to this team and push them into a playoff birth. It should be obvious to everybody now that in Adrian Peterson’s world, you’re capable of doing what shouldn’t be possible. Peterson is the definition of a truly irreplaceable commodity in this league. It’s only a miracle that this guy doesn’t win this award, and in many ways you could argue he could have.

Winner: Andrew Luck

Photo courtesy of NFLfan18

That’s right, a rookie. Maybe not what you were expecting to see, but if you think about it the proof is already there. Now I know, I know, the guy tied Mark Sanchez for second most interceptions thrown this year, and had a worse completion percentage than Sanchez which ranked near the bottom of the league. He was 26^th in the league with a 76.5 passer rating. This all means nothing in the grand scheme of things. What made Luck a great stand out player are the intangibles. This is not a dink-and-dunk passer. The Colts had no running game to speak of and his offensive line was horrendous all year long, but he still managed to throw for over 4,000 yards. He was so clutch this year you almost wonder if he didn’t steal it from Eli Manning before the season started (at least that would explain what happened to Manning). He completed a ridiculous 83.9% of his passes on first down, but also touted an impressive 37.6% conversion rate on third downs, virtually unparalleled for a rookie quarterback. Again, the interceptions and low completion rate can be contributed primarily (outside of not having an offensive line or a running game) to one major factor: the guy is not a dink-and-dunk passer. Luck throws the ball as a quarterback was originally meant to, downfield, with remarkable consistency. It didn’t help him that his receivers seemed to drop as many passes as you could without looking like you don’t belong in the NFL. He was great at causing defenses to create their own penalties with hard counts (that intangibles thing again). If none of these stats convince you that he’s deserving of this award I have one final stat for you. Without Andrew Luck the Colts went 2-14. With Andrew Luck the Colts went 11-5, losing in the playoffs to a Ravens team who are now in the AFC Championship game. I rest my case.

Divisional Playoff Predictions

Looks like I’m finally getting better at this.  From going 1-3 in the 2012 wild-card NFL playoffs, to getting all 4 correct last week, it now appears that I might know something about the game of football.  Either that or the picks were really easy.  Regardless, this is my favorite week of the NFL season.  More often than not, it’s the eight teams most deserving of playing for the super bowl.  I am still shocked that the New York Giants are no longer with us this season, but outside of that, I believe we will see the best the NFL has to offer.

GM 1: Baltimore vs. Denver.  

It’s amazing how much of a difference one year makes.  Last year we thought that the Denver Broncos were riding the Tim Tebow wave, and it was his magic that pushed the Denver Broncos into the divisional round of the playoffs.  Now we know better.  This is one of the most balanced teams in football, and they enter the playoffs without being vulnerable at any position, including special teams.  They can beat you with the lead, or playing from behind.  It’s a tough predicament for the Baltimore Ravens.  Based on talent levels this game should be close.  The Ravens have plenty of talent, and can beat any team in the NFL on their day.  If Joe Flacco can keep up with the Broncos (because I believe the Broncos will control the clock today), they have a chance.  It’s small, but a chance none the less.

Broncos by 3

GM 2: Green Bay vs. San Francisco.

The two NFC games are brutal to pick.  The 49ers come into the game being the only team that beat the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau this year.  Green Bay was at full strength, and they were played off the field.  However, the 49ers have been the least predictable team in the NFL since then.  They’ve blown out teams, they’ve been blown out, they won at Foxboro, they tied the Rams.  They should win this game.  They have a pass rush that can get to Aaron Rodgers.  Their pass defense is among the league’s best.  They can control the clock by running with Gore.  Green Bay will need to get into 5 WR formations frequently.  If they can score TD’s instead of field goals, they can easily go into San Francisco and win.  I don’t think it will be easily, but they should get the job done.

Packers by 7

GM 3: Seattle vs. Atlanta

Whoo whee!  This is going to be a doozy.  The NFL’s first half leaders against the second half leaders.  A huge back story with the Atlanta Falcons.  They have been at this point a number of times since they drafted Matt Ryan.  Yet, he has yet to get them past the divisional round.  Even Michael Vick led the Falcons to the NFC Championship game once.  They traded a valuable number of draft choices to bring in Julio Jones, to create even more mismatches.  Then, they draw the Seattle Seahawks, the one team in the league that matches up with Atlanta perfectly.  A soft run defense which is Atlanta's only deficiency, you say?  Seattle will pound them with Marshawn Lynch.  Two fantastic wide receivers?  Best secondary in the NFL.  Great home field advantage down in Atlanta?  Seattle has won at Chicago, at Washington and beat Buffalo by four TD’s on the road since November.  All signs point toward Seattle, so I think I will roll with an upset.

Falcons by 3

GM 4:  Houston vs. New England

It looks to be a gimme game.  The New England Patriots are probably the most difficult match up in football right now, with the running game clicking, the defense creating turnovers, and Tom Brady continuing to be... well... Tom Brady.  The problem for me is, they only beat the Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 just a couple of weekends ago.  That could signify a couple of things.  First, they didn’t really care as they probably knew the most conservative of game plans would get a win.  Second, there are some dents in the armor, and they will be beaten soon.  Third, some Jaguars were playing for their futures in the league.  I think it’s a little bit of all three, but they are going to be really hard to beat.  Lucky for Houston, they have exactly what the doctor ordered.  They can keep Tom Brady off the field with a healthy dose of Arian Foster and Ben Tate.  They also have good news in that every single contributing player will be healthy and ready to go. Their defense played very against the Bengals last week, and kept Dalton from making throws downfield.  Will that be enough?  I think they need a little more.

Patriots by 13

Dear NFL Fans

Dear fans,

I know there are only 2 of you, but I still get to type fans in plural, so that’s very exciting for me.  My apologies for being gone so long, but this was obviously my busiest December of all time what with the kids and everything. I still got to watch football though, and it probably was one of the most exciting seasons in recent memory.  Except for the disappointing Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Giants.  I thought that perhaps that would be a Super Bowl preview, instead both of those organizations are already golfing this off-season. 

I'll try and keep this blog post short and beautiful.  A recap of my predictions for the year and how I fared, followed by a playoff preview.  First record will be my prediction, followed by the real thing.  Let’s hope I got some right!

AFC East

1. Patriots 13-3    1. Patriots 12-4. 

2. Bills 9-7           2. Dolphins 7-9

3. Jets 7-9            3. Bills 6-10

4. Dolphins 5-11  4. Jets 6-10

Not to far off.  I obviously didn’t think the Patriots could lose to Arizona, they proved me wrong.  Dolphins defense held up better than I thought, and I didn’t see Revis going out for the whole season.  Pretty predictable division, however.

AFC North

1. Steelers 12-4            1. Ravens 10-6

2. Ravens 11-5            2. Bengals 10-6

3. Bengals 9-7              3. Steelers 8-8

4. Browns 3-13            4. Browns 5-11

Weeden was a little better than I expected, and I didn’t think Ben would miss a game.  The Ravens & Bengals would’ve been exactly right if the Ravens didn’t sit the entire team in the final game of the year.  I’ll call this a push.

AFC South

1. Texans 11-5             1. Texans 12-4

2. Titans 6-10               2. Colts 11-5

3. Colts 5-11                3. Titans 6-10

4. Jaguars 1-15            4. Jaguars 2-14.

Didn’t give the Jaguars enough credit.  Shame, shame.  Also, I love Andrew Luck.  I want my 3 boys to be like Andrew Luck.  But not in my wildest dreams did I think he’d win 11 and get to the playoffs.  Simply astounding. Yay on Texans and Titans.

AFC West

1. Chiefs 11-5              1. Broncos 13-3

2. Broncos 8-8             2. Chargers 7-9

3. Raiders 7-9              3. Raiders 4-12

4. Chargers 7-9            4. Chiefs 2-14

According to my predictions, everyone in Kansas City should have been fired for that debacle.  Well, my guess is that this will be the last time anyone offers a one-year wonder a 30 million dollar contract to play quarterback.  Nope, Seattle did it to.  Anyway, I thought Peyton would miss 8 games, Peyton thought that I meant win 8 games at home.  Missed by 1, Peyton.

NFC East

1. Giants 11-5              1. Redskins 10-6

2. Eagles 11-5              2. Giants 9-7

3. Cowboys 6-10         3. Cowboys 8-8

4. Redskins 6-10          4. Eagles 4-12

No one can claim victory on the Philadelphia Eagles; I saw no predictions of them winning less than 8 games.  I also didn’t see anyone pick Washington to win this division.  I think I gave them more wins than most as I said, “Washington will win a few upsets, but they really have it all to do to win 8+ games in this division.” They did it all.

NFC North

1. Packers 11-5           1. Packers 11-5

2. Lions 11-5               2. Vikings 10-6

3. Bears 10-6               3. Bears 10-6

4. Vikings 5-11            4. Lions 4-12

By Lions I meant Vikings, and by Vikings I meant Lions.  Seriously, if AP had just told me that he was a better runner after his devastating injury, I probably would’ve considered this.  But I never imagined that he’d hit 2,000.  Packers and Bears exactly right, and I only missed one exact game on both of them. (Colts/Texans; Seahawks/Lions)

NFC South

1. Falcons 13-3            1. Falcons 13-3

2. Saints 9-7                 2. Saints 7-9    

3. Panthers 6-10           3. Panthers 7-9

4. Bucs 6-10                4. Bucs 7-9

Whoo hoo!  Only missed it by 4 total games!  I thought the Saints would push for the playoffs, but that 0-4 start killed them.  Carolina’s schedule was one of the league’s toughest, but I think they are on the right track.  Cam didn’t struggle too much against some of the NFL’s best pass defenses (Giants, Broncos, Cowboys)

NFC West

1. 49ers 12-4               1. 49ers 11-4-1

2. Seahawks 7-9          2. Seahawks 11-5

3. Cardinals 5-11         3. Rams 7-8-1

4. Rams 2-14               4. Cardinals 5-11 (4-0; 1-11)

Really underestimated the defensive talent in this division.  Almost predicted Arizona exactly right, “I could see the Cardinals running off 4 straight wins before cooling off.”  I just didn’t think they would beat the Patriots, and then lose to the Rams twice.  Damn 49ers tie really screwed me.  But I did see Seattle’s potential which I am proud of.  I did have Bradford missing 12+ games though...

AFC playoff teams correct: Baltimore, New England, Houston.

NFC playoff teams correct: Atlanta, S.F, Green Bay

Yuck.  6/12.  Should’ve put Cincy over Buffalo, and Denver...ahhhh!!!! NFC 3 were extremely difficult to predict, as the Vikings, Redskins and Seahawks won all of 15 games combined in 2011.

Super Bowl: Baltimore vs San Francisco.  Still have a shot, I suppose.  Wouldn’t spend my hard earned dollars betting on it though.

Injuries: The only one I got right was Matt Cassel. 

Surprises: Thank you very much on the Julio Jones.  Probably one of top 3 receivers in the NFL now.  Dashon Goldson I hit on too.  Missed on Ashlon Jeffery and DeMeco Ryans, although DeMeco was pretty solid for the Eagles. 

Not bad, but I really wish I could’ve had the Peyton and Sammy Bradford injuries back.  Really think I get close on my picks then.  Outside of Indy, Washington and Kansas City of course. 

Playoffs!?!?  You wanna talk about playoffs?!?!  You kidding me??

GM 1: Cincinnati at Houston. 

This sets up really well for the Bengals.  Houston really doesn’t want to be here, as their final two games indicated.  They had 2 beautiful chances to lock up the #1 seed, and missed badly.  That being said, they are a really tough match-up for most teams, and I think they could keep Dalton and A.J. Green off the field.  Look for the two running games to try and establish some clock control.  I’ll give it to Houston, but I really don’t like this pick. 

Texans by 4

GM 2: Minnesota at Green Bay.

Probably the toughest to pick of all the weekend games.  Minnesota is one of the two hottest teams in football, in my opinion.  They won on the road in Houston, and then beat the Packers at home to finish off the year.  The running game is the best in the league, and Ponder isn’t turning the ball over. That being said, all the Packers horses are coming back in time for this game.  If Woodson, Matthews, Cobb, Nelson and Jennings show no lingering effects, it should be enough to neutralize the AP factor.

Packers by 6

GM 3: Indy at Baltimore

Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano are a great story for the NFL this year.  I wouldn’t guess that the ride would be over, and they could continue in their early quest toward another Super Bowl run.  However, the Ravens are playing off of full emotion right now, and they are a tough team to beat at home.  It is likely Ray Lewis’s last season (do you believe him), plus Ed Reed and some others are losing tread.  I think that Ray Rice is the key factor, and finally has a big game for one of the few times this season.  No Billy Cundiff to mess things up either.

Ravens by 10

GM 4: Seattle at Washington.

The other two hot teams in the league.  I don’t really consider the Washington Redskins to be a hot team, but they understand how to win in the close games.  This is actually a really tough match-up for the Seahawks as their defense can't just rush to the ball.  They are really all about pursue, pursue, pursue.  Washington does a great job blocking for their backfield, and they run a lot of misdirections and interesting options.  Look for the turnover battle and the special teams to decide this one, and I think Russell Wilson continues to shine.  Both #1 and #2 picks fall early.

Seahawks by 3