Milan vs. Barcelona: Fluke?

This had 3-0 Barcelona written all over it.  Barça are in-form, uninjured (with the exception of David Villa who's been in and out all season), they have La Liga all but wrapped up, and are by far the favorites for the Champions league this season. Not to mention their side boasts more “world class” players than then any team in the world, save Real Madrid arguably. Milan are without their only two really world renown players in Balotelli and de Jong (Robinho doesn't count), they haven’t exactly sparkled in Serie A this season, and seem to be in a rebuilding phase both on and off the pitch.

So how did Milan beat the best team in the world when they were clear underdogs? First and foremost, luck.  They got a lucky no-call that led to a goal and loose balls seemed to go their way. But that wasn’t everything. Milan applied high pressure all night, and for once Barcelona couldn’t handle it. When Barça settled down, which they always do as they’re not a run and gun style team, their back four were pressured which they can usually handle.  Their problems seemed to occur when they got to the midfield, usually their strong suit. But Milan gave them no space. Xavi, Iniesta, Busquets, even Messi when he dropped back couldn’t even turn without 1 or 2 fleet footed Italians covering them.  And the Italians did what Italians do, they won the tackles. One shot on goal tells you how bad of a night Barça had, you could even say the score could have been 3 or 4 – 0 if El Shaarawy hadn’t made a number of rookie-style mistakes. It’s like Barcelona didn’t know what to do if someone actually treated them like equals.

Stephan El Shaarawy, while performing well in
Serie A this year, did in fact resemble
Titus Bramble against Barcelona.

I don’t consider this Milan squad to be particularly dangerous besides Kevin Prince Boateng being leagues better than I thought he was when I first saw him at Portsmouth.  But there is something to be said for sleeping giants and “Big” clubs that aren’t “Big” at the time.  Liverpool are pretty terrible right now but no one would really be that surprised if they had pulled it out and won the UEFA cup this year, and I guess the same goes for Milan.  They certainly aren’t favorites for the Champions League but you can’t deny history, and you can’t forget how they finished in 2007 when they won it last (4th in the league).

As for beating Barcelona, Inter Milan did it in 2010. They won at the San Siro and held Barcelona at the Nou Camp in a defensive display that few could forget if not for Jose Mourinho’s celebration after the game then perhaps for Sergio Busquets' acting skills. Chelsea did it last year by barely squeaking by after John Terry got a red card for a bizarre off-the-ball incident. In short, it is possible and if anyone’s going to do it it’s Milan.

Shame.

So was this a fluke? Should Allegri suddenly be considered a tactical genius? Has tiki-taka been found out? At the end of the day no one would really be surprised if Barcelona scored 3 or 4 on the return leg. But even though Milan only had 34% of the possession and everyone knows that Barcelona is the better team, something in the Milanese men made Barcelona look like boys.  Maybe it was Philip Mexès jumping well over Pedro to win a defensive header late in the game, or the way that Barcelona seemed to always have a player grabbing their head or ankle in agony that made them seem sort of silly. Or maybe it was just blind luck and good defending that won the game, but every good team and dynasty comes to an end, and 3-4 years seems to be the limit. If this is goodbye Miss Tiki-Taka, know that you are one of the best.

Leave it to the Italians to stifle an attacking side.

Champions League II

These are the Champions Part II

 

 

Second Eight

 

 

            For those of you that watched the first round of games, I hope you enjoyed them.  I was pretty far off with my first round of predictions, at least outside of picking the Real Madrid and Manchester United score correctly.  The tricky game was always going to be Juventus and Celtic, and now I believe that Juventus definitely have the horses to win the whole thing.  These next round of games should be just as exciting, and the tie of the round could be Arsenal hosting Bayern Munich.  Arsenal is at the point where anything less than a victory and the wheels may begin to come off.  Enjoy the next 4 games!

 

Arsenal v Bayern Munich

            So Far: Arsenal probably got a little more than they bargained for in coming second out of group B.  They probably should have lost to Schalke twice, and although unlucky, they also were defeated on their trip to Greece.  Podolski did score 3 goals in the group stages, while Gervinho also had 2, which is one less than he has scored in the Premier League all year.  They are going to have to find their goals from somewhere, because Bayern has plenty of fire power.  Bayern had a relatively easy time in Group F, winning the group while scoring 11 goals in their final three games.  The difficult part to defending Bayern is they got goals from 9 different players, and they have plenty of versatility in both the midfield and attack which makes them very hard to plan for.  They played their group matches in a 4-5-1, 4-2-2-2, 4-3-2-1 and a 4-4-2.  Lahm is such a talented fullback that at times it seemed they had a 6^th in midfield. 

            Up Next: To put it kindly, Arsenal are going to have a very difficult time winning this draw.  They have probably hit their worst form of the season in the past six weeks, and even their two most recent victories were 1-0 wins over teams closer to the bottom of the table.  Bayern is going in the other direction.  Their league form this season has been nothing short of sensational, and they probably already have the Bundesliga wrapped up.  Their main goal this season is to win the Champions League after finishing runner-up in 2010 and 2012.  They are also in a small state of transition, as Pep Guardiola will be taking over the squad next year.  I don’t think it will be a distraction, but some players may have to recognize that their time is growing short.  I see them playing to score an away goal or two, and then really taking it to Arsenal at the Allianz.  Arsenal should come out in a flat 4-4-2 to try and keep possession at home, but I bet Wenger plays a 4-3-3, and attempts to counter Bayern’s superior possession skills. 

            Arsenal Player to Watch: CF Lukas Podolski.  He gets to face the club in which he suffered the greatest during his stellar career.  A big chance to take revenge.

            Bayern Player to Watch: RB Philip Lahm.  I mentioned him, you may as well watch.  Outstanding when he pushes forward.

            Prediction: 2-2, 3-1. Bayern wins on aggregate, 5-3.

Porto v Malaga

            So Far: Porto was very strong in the group stages, only losing to PSG in the final matchday of the group.  Both teams had already advanced by that point, so I’m curious as to how much effort Porto had put into that match. Outside of Madrid, they were probably the team that no group winner wanted to see.  They have now had over a decade of success at this level, dating back to winning it all back in 2004.  They continue to lose top players year after year, and even though they’ve lost Falcao and Hulk over the last two seasons, they haven’t missed a beat.  They got a large number of goals in Europe from their midfield, and it probably is the most underrated group of players in Champions League.  Malaga may have been this year’s biggest surprise.  After losing their best player Santi Cazorla to Arsenal a few weeks before the close of the transfer window, due to large debts, a number of experts had written them off to finish third in group C.  No such luck.  They went over 300 minutes before conceding a goal, and won all three of their first games including wins over Zenit and AC Milan.  They finished an impressive +7 and didn’t drop one game in the group stage.  They were sound defensively, and were the closest thing we saw to Barcelona during the round of 32. 

            Up Next: This is a very difficult fixture to predict.  Neither team has played poorly all season, and both squads sincerely believe that they can go far in this tournament.  Porto likes to play a wide game, and very up tempo with lots of passing and movement.  Look for them to play a 4-2-3-1 with James Rodriguez and Varela getting in to the box to support the striker.  I think they will try to finish off the leg at the Estadio Dragao, and should make for an entertaining tie.  Malaga will match up quite differently.  Most of the play comes through the middle, and they like to attack through Isco, their impressive attacking midfielder.  He will try and dictate the play, and Malaga could very well be the team that gives Porto their second home defeat in the history of Champions League knockout play. 

            Porto Player to Watch: LW James Rodriguez.  One of the most exciting up coming talents.  Will be playing for a big club soon.

            Malaga Player to watch: CAM Isco.  See above.

            Prediction: 2-1, 2-0. Malaga wins on aggregate, 3-2.

Galatasaray v FC Schalke

            So Far: “Welcome to Hell”. This is what Schalke gets to look forward to in their first match against Galatasaray.  Gala’s fans really weren’t into it during the group stage as they only had 1 point after the first three matches.  Like a light switch, they turned it on in time to win their final three matches, sign Wesley Snejider and Didier Drogba, and put themselves into a position where they may be called the favorites coming into this match.  No one wants to go to Turkey ever, and Galatasaray do a great job of winning games at home when it counts.  For the history buffs, look back to their run in the 2000 UEFA Cup when they beat Arsenal in the title game.  FC Schalke is beginning to be a fixture in the round of 16.  Many of you may remember their run to the semi-final in 2011, and they have a solid structure and hierarchy inside the club.  They went undefeated in group play, and may have scored one of the more impressive victories in the group stages, when they defeated Arsenal at the Emirates.  They play an attractive style of football, and most of the players have grown up playing together, so there is a lot of familiarity in the squad.  What impresses most about Schalke is that the main core of their players are all still in their early 20’s or even teenagers yet.  A sign of things to come?

            Up Next: I can safely say that both of these teams probably wanted to draw each other.  Other than the talent of Celtic, no team probably has less through their squad than Galatasaray.  At least until January.  With both signings able to play, Galatasaray definitely has the talent in which to win this leg.  They will most likely come out in a defensive 4-4-1-1 and allow Sneijder to push forward and help support Drogba and Sarioglu.  Schalke comes into this matchup with a lot of concerns.  One of their best players, Lewis Holtby decided to leave for Tottenham, which left a big hole in midfield.  They have also recently struggled in the Bundesliga losing two of their last four and drawing Augsburg which I would compare to tying the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Not great form, for a team that had a chance to make a big run.  Their youth is probably their biggest concern, but on their day, they are still a difficult side to contend with and have lots of talent through the ranks.  I expect them to play their rigid 4-4-2 and try to outplay Gala during both of the fixtures.

            Galatasaray Player to Watch: ST Didier Drogba.  We thought he was going to leave like Michael, on top, with the winning kick.  Might be like joining the Wizards.

            Schalke Player to Watch: LM Julian Draxler.  Not even twenty yet, and a catalyst as to why this team is so entertaining.

            Prediction: I have no clue what to expect.  Um… 1-0, 1-0. Aggregate 1-1 and Schalke wins on penalties 5-4.

AC Milan v Barcelona

            So Far: Talk about a team in transition.  AC Milan sold off their two top players at the beginning of the season, and then sold two of their better players in the January transfer window.  They decided to replace all those players with kids from the youth academy, and one Mario Balotelli.  For those of you who know… yep.  I would assume they still want to challenge for trophies, but at this point, I have no idea.  They were lucky to get out of the group stages by gaining 8 points which was one point more than Zenit would get, which shows you how important Milan’s win at Zenit really was.  It was probably one of the best games of the group games, and the only time in which we really saw Milan shine as a team.  Domestically, they aren’t doing much better, and it will be a major upset, if they can take out the mighty Barca.  Speaking of mighty, Barcelona was exactly that during their group stage.  Although Celtic played them extremely tough and even took all 3 points off of them at Celtic Park, Barcelona was the team no one wanted to see.  They are dominating domestically, face no serious injuries, and look like they are hungry for another Champions League title. 

            Up Next: Milan is large only in history.  This looks to be one of the bigger mismatches of the knockout round of 16.  Milan does have talent in their midfield, and Prince Boateng has been in good form for most of the season.  Yet, Balotelli is cup-tied for this tournament, and won’t be able to provide ‘inspiration’ to the Italian masses.  This is no knock against El Shaarawy, Bojan and Pazzini who I believe are very good players, but probably won’t be able to penetrate the Barcelona defense.  However, even though Milan has only kept two clean sheets since their defeat of Juventus back in November, they have been playing better and could maintain Barcelona for 90 minutes.  Maybe.  Barcelona on the other hand just continues to thrive due to the hot feet of Lionel Messi and I expect them to attempt more of the same in this leg.  For all of their success, they are quite the easy team to predict when it comes to pre-match formations and line-ups.  We will see them in their Barca 4-3-3 with Fabregas helping Pedro and Messi inside the box, and both Xavi and Iniesta bossing the midfield.  Just because Milan knows what’s coming though doesn’t mean they will stop it.

            Milan Player to Watch: ST Bojan Krkic. Facing his former club, he should be motivated knowing that his spot was given to Pedro.  But does he get the start?

            Barcelona Player to Watch: CF Messi.  Why not? I can’t wait to see what he does next.

            Prediction: 1-2, 4-1. Barcelona wins on aggregate 6-2. 

Champions League

These are the Champions

First Eight

 

            Better than March Madness?  It’s pretty close.  Besides the Super Bowl and the final day of the Barclays Premier League, this is probably my favorite time of any competition.  The 16 best football clubs in Europe (more often than not), come together for a few months to determine which club can be considered the best in the world.  This year is no different.  We are missing a couple big sides compared to most seasons as Inter Milan never made it to the party, and both Chelsea and Manchester City couldn’t get out of relatively difficult group draws.  We are left with a couple of upstart sides including: Malaga, Shakhtar Donetsk, Celtic and Borussia Dortmund.  None of these clubs would be considered favorites in years past, now any of them could make it through to the semi-finals.  The following is a little synopsis of each club that play during the next week, and my predictions for their matches in the 2013 Champions League final 16. (I will follow up with the other four contests next week).

Celtic v Juventus

So Far: As much as I love Celtic’s story in this year’s competition, Juventus is almost a surefire bet to get through to the quarterfinals.  Celtic finished in second place in group G, and beat two pretty good sides (Benfica, Spartak Moscow) to get to this point.  They were able to defeat the mighty Barcelona at home, and they will be tough for any side to take three points from while on their travels.  The one reason that I can’t pick Celtic to get through to the next round though is because Juventus just will not lose.  They went undefeated last season in the Serie A, and have only lost once so far this year in the competition.  They also played some pretty impressive football in Champions League so far, having come down from 2 goals to tie Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, and they smoked Chelsea 3-0 at the new Juventus Stadium. 

            Up Next: I think this is definitely Juventus’ tie to lose.  They play the perfect style of football to defeat a team similar to Celtic’s style.  Look for them to play with two deep midfielders, and control the tempo of the games, forcing Celtic to come out and attack.  Not that Celtic isn’t capable, but the threat of Vucinic, Matri and Vidal on the counter is scary for them to consider.  They’ll be better off sitting back and waiting for Juventus to push forward.  I doubt that they have the patience.

Celtic player to watch: GK Fraser Forster.  Was magnificent against Barcelona.

Juventus player to watch: CM Andrea Pirlo.  At times, he controls games like Xavi or Iniesta.

Prediction: 1-1, 3-0.  Juventus on 4-1 aggregate.

Valencia v PSG

            So Far: PSG’s millions have finally gotten them to this point.  They did well to get to this point; winning a difficult group that also had experienced FC Porto in it.  Their only dropped points were on the trip to Porto, which is a very difficult place to play.  Otherwise they cruised through the group outscoring opponents 14-2.  Their attacking play with Ibrahimovic and Lavezzi scoring goals was extremely difficult to stop.  Valencia had a very similar experience.  With the exception of their loss and draw to Bayern Munich, they won every other group game.  Their three-pronged attack of Feghouli, Soldado and Jonas scored 11 of their 12 goals, and they were brilliant at home. 

            Up Next: Contrary to popular thought, I think this is a very difficult match up to predict.  Many believe that PSG is going to run away in this contest, but Valencia is much underrated as a team, they have played the big teams this season tough, and have a great team chemistry.  They don’t have to count on goals from one individual up front, and have about seven bench players that can all provide a spark if one is needed.  However, what PSG has done in a short time is quite remarkable.  As recent as three seasons ago, they weren’t playing in Europe.  Now they have a shot at the title.  I think PSG will play defensive in the first leg, and try and keep the score around 1-1 or snatch a 1-0 away victory.  I don’t even think they’d be that disappointed with an away defeat, granted they would probably need an away goal or two to be really comfortable.  I think Valencia goes for it in the first leg, and this has the chance to be a memorable pair of matches. 

Valencia Player to Watch: CAM Sofiane Feghouli.  Well on his way to being a world class player. 

PSG Player to Watch: CAM Lucas Moura.  I’m curious to see if he was worth the 45 million euros.

Prediction: 2-1, 2-1. 3-3 aggregate and Valencia wins on Penalties.

Shakhtar Donetsk v Borussia Dortmund

            So Far: Shakhtar did just enough to get out of one of the most difficult groups.  They were able to defeat Chelsea at home, and take 6 points off of Nordsjælland. Getting another point away to Juventus was exactly what they needed to finish second in the group and get to this stage.  They played entertaining football, and were explosive at home minus the final game in which things were already wrapped up.  Borussia Dortmund did everything that Shakhtar did, but better.  They won what many considered to be the most difficult group, and they did it with relative ease.  They were brilliant at home, and good enough on the road.  They could’ve scored 5 when they played at the Etihad. 

            Up Next: Part of me thinks that the chairman of Shakhtar is smoking crack.  Two weeks ago, they sold their best player, Willian, to Anzhi in Russia for a nice fee, but nothing astronomical.  I don’t think Shakhtar had the horses to win this entire tournament, but they were talented enough to pull an upset or two.  For as good as Dortmund was, we still don’t know exactly what we are going to get from them.  They were miserable in their warm up game prior to this one, and lost 4-1 at home to Hamburg.  They are very finesse, so if they get bruised and battered, you can take them out of their game.  Lucky that Shakhtar also plays attractive football then.  I see Dortmund trying to win the first leg, and even if they don’t, they should have enough in the tank to get through one round.

Shakhtar Player to Watch: LB Razvan Rat. Likely the most underrated left defender in Europe.

Dortmund Player to Watch: CM Sebastian Kehl. Quietly had a very nice career.  One final chance to shine. 

Prediction: 1-2, 2-0. Dortmund wins 4-1 on aggregate.

Real Madrid v Manchester United

          So Far: Real Madrid struggled a little bit in their group, but they did play against some tough opponents.  For whatever reason, it seems like Madrid lacks a little bit of motivation this season to really play at the highest level.  They came back from being down vs City at home to pull out that famous 3-2 victory, but struggled against Dortmund both in Germany and in Spain, but beat Ajax convincingly on an 8-2 aggregate.  Manchester United had what many consider to be the easiest draw of the eight groups, and cruised ahead to four straight victories to lock up the top spot.  They lost their final two games of the group, and never really hit top gear in any of the six games. 

            Up Next:  Obviously the most mouth-watering draw of the round of 16 in Champions League.  Between the two clubs they own 12 European titles, and a total of 17 appearances in the final.  There are many interesting stories to follow including the return of Cristiano Ronaldo to Manchester for the first time since his departure.  I think both managers will be cautious in Spain, but will play all their horses with the hope that one of them inspires a moment of brilliance to give their team the victory.  In Manchester, it could be quite different, especially if there are goals scored in the first leg.  Look for Jose Mourinho to play a 4-5-1 at home with Ronaldo and Di Maria playing deeper, and then a more attacking 4-3-3 at Old Trafford. 

Madrid Player to Watch: CF Cristiano Ronaldo.  An obvious choice.  A huge moment in his career.

United Player to Watch: ST Robin Van Persie. This opportunity is why he chose Man Utd. 

Prediction: 1-1, 2-1. Manchester United wins 3-2 on aggregate.

 

Super Bowl XLVII

For the first time in my years and years of predicting the Super Bowl players, I finally got the participants correct.  The story lines changed along the way, but I really felt like these were the two most complete teams and I still believe that the 49ers are the most talented team in the NFL.  Case in point – Alex Smith is probably the best back-up quarterback in the league, their stable of running backs run deep, and they lost Mario Manningham for the season which didn’t affect their winning ways in the least.  Their defense has multiple All-pros, and they may just be entering their peak years.  Baltimore also played into my thoughts back in August.  After losing out to the Patriots last year, I think a lot of their players felt like the window was going to slam shut if they didn’t make it to the Super Bowl this season.  They had a nice run; five consecutive playoff appearances including three AFC championship appearances as well.  Sending Billy Cundiff on his merry way was probably the right thing to do, and the Ravens probably have more team leaders than any other team in the NFL.  Just through inspiration alone, this team can look to Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis, Ray Rice, and John Harbaugh for guidance.  Torrey Smith had to do a lot of growing up as well during the season.  For the Ravens, it’s like getting dealt a pair of aces, and then seeing two aces appear on the flop.  They went all in this season.

So what are my thoughts on the winner and loser for Super Bowl XLVII?  I am still struggling to make that decision.  I actually feel like the outcome will be decided quite easily.  Both of these teams are almost mirror images of one another, and that starts with their coaching.  Neither team relinquishes leads.  They both love the big play.  They both use the run to set up their pass.  And they are both nasty on defense.  With all that in mind, I believe the team that inherits a double-digit lead first will end up winning the game.  Possibly even comfortably.  Forcing either team to become one-dimensional (passing) does not bode well for their success, and the opposite defense will have plenty of opportunities to generate turnovers.  Taking all of this into consideration, let’s take a closer look at both squads, and then I will make my final selection of the 2012 season.

Baltimore:  There are no super stars on this offense, but I believe that works into their favor.  Every single player on their offense contributes to the main cause, and they don’t really have a weakness on that side of the ball.  They have speed and size at wide receiver, they have running and blocking ability from Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce.  While Joe Flacco isn’t the greatest intermediate thrower, he does have a delicious deep ball.  The offensive line is more than adequate.  Justin Tucker has a career accuracy of plus 90%.  They won’t score forty, but in a close game will be really hard to beat.

The defense is a different story.  They have great parts, but the individuals are likely better than the whole.  During the middle of the year, they were statistically one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  Their reputation for always being among the league’s best is all but finished.  However, they haven’t suffered any serious injuries since they lost Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis earlier in the year, and both players are in top form. (Must be the deer spray) They are a confident bunch, and just knocked out Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in consecutive weeks from the playoffs.  I think Kaepernick is of a different breed, but Baltimore will have no fear of facing him.  Their weakness still probably lies in the secondary, but take chances at your own risk.  I think that teams get over excited to throw against the Ravens (Peyton in overtime), and Ed Reed can still make magic.

San Francisco: This offense has gone under a reconstruction since the beginning of the season.  To get to the Super Bowl, we used to think that Frank Gore would carry the ball 25 times a game, and then Alex Smith would make just enough plays for the defense to get them the victory.  Now the offense revolves around Kaepernick and his relationship with his wide receivers.  Michael Crabtree may have finally made it into the top echelon of NFL receivers.  He is a tough match-up for anyone, and handled Tramon Williams and Asante Samuel without any issues.  Vernon Davis has been relatively quiet, but can explode at any time.  Randy Moss is the greatest wide receiver in NFL history.  (Just ask him).  Joking aside, look for the 49ers to try and take what Baltimore gives them, sandwiching a few big throws and read-option runs to keep the defense guessing.

The defense may be the most talented in the league.  They have three (3!) all-pro linebackers!  Navorro Bowman, Pat Willis and Aldon Smith could all be heading to Canton if they continue to up tick in their individual success. Ahmad Brooks is more than adequate at the strong side linebacker position. They have one of the best defensive lineman in football in Justin Smith who opens up lanes for the four linebackers.  Isaac Sopoaga may be one of the most underrated tackles in the NFL, and has made many a big play during the playoffs.  I am also a huge fan of their secondary that goes six deep.  They can match up with most any team’s personnel and between the Packers and Falcons saw over 20 different offensive packages.  For as good as they are though, they are still young, and have been prone to bouts of inconsistency during the year.

Final Prediction:  This just seems to be the Ravens year.  The 49ers may be the 3rd most offensively talented team that the Ravens have seen during the playoffs, and came in no hotter than either the Broncos or the Patriots.  Jim is probably the better motivator, but John has created a team with fantastic personalities and a will to win that I haven’t seen since the Cowboys of the early 90’s and John Elway during his late run.  They had an ordinary regular season, but I think that they always knew that if they made the playoffs, they had a chance to win the whole thing.  Players got to rest, other players got to develop, and as a result, the Ravens have quite the complete team.  Their destiny is the trophy.

Ravens 24 
49ers 16