Champions League
Semi-Finals
My
apologies to those that actually read these snippets that I wasn’t able to
offer you my thoughts and opinions on the Champions League quarter-finals. Life has gotten a little busier now that I
have two infants that have figured out how to crawl around, pull themselves up
on tables, and make overlapping runs on the soccer pitch.
This pair of matches though, are
far too important to not say something about, and I think we could be in for
some of the most exciting matches in the past couple of seasons in the
Champions League. For most of the
season, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid have been
the in-form teams, and the clubs that always had the most likely of chances to
lift the cup. All four clubs have also
made this competition the priority this season, and it shouldn’t surprise
anyone that all four have matched their expectations as of now.
Bayern Munich v Barcelona:
Bayern Munich – At times this season, they have been
absolutely unstoppable. They have a +75
differential in the bundesliga with games to go, and they have been brilliant
in the knockout rounds of the ECL. First
they went and played Arsenal off of their own ground in winning 3-1, and looked
like they could’ve scored a few more.
They were fluid, and Arsenal could never really figure out how to
maintain them. Then, in what possibly
may have been their worst game of the season, they lost at home to Arsenal
2-0. I believe they went into the match
far too relaxed, but did enough defending when it mattered to push through to
the quarters. That’s where they met
Juventus, who many people felt like it would be the tie of the round. Bayern made sure it was quick work by winning
at home 2-0, and dominating in Italy and also pulling down a 2-0 victory. They have been tough to defend, and they have
a nice selection of fifteen players that have maintained a health streak unlike
anything I’ve seen in years.
Barcelona – Usually the favorite any time they get drawn
with an opponent, they might have to be considered the underdog going into this
tie with Bayern. In the first knockout
round, they faced an organized Milan squad that sat back and took away the diagonal
passing lanes that make Barcelona so dangerous.
Milan was lucky to score the first goal, but after that moment,
dominated the rest of the first leg. The
second leg, we saw Barcelona and more specifically Messi at his best, and it
was a comfortable 4-0 win to get to the quarterfinals. They drew PSG in that round, and had some
difficulty in defending both Lavezzi and Ibrahimovic, while maintaining their
strategy of the monster possession game.
They may have been better off playing just a little bit deeper and
forcing PSG to play more simple passes, but they were able to score 2 goals in
Paris, which allowed them to win the round on goal difference.
Bayern v Barcelona – This is definitely the juicier of the
two match-ups. For reasons that are
almost unfathomable, these two clubs haven’t met in Europe since the 2008-09
season even though one of them have appeared in every single ECL final since
that year. They have similar ideologies
in the fact that both teams love to control the ball and get most of the squad
involved in various attacks. Neither
club is afraid to attack away from home, and it should make for some interesting
moments. I see Bayern wanting to keep
things tight in the first leg and win the game 1 or 2-0. They know they have an advantage on set
pieces and dead ball situations and may look to try and expose some of the
Barcelona weakness in those situations.
I think Barcelona will attempt to control the tempo at the Alliance, and
may even push to win the match to make things easy at the Nou Camp. If Messi is able to play, Barcelona will be
allowed to do what is comfortable and should make for an easy like path to
Wembley.
My Prediction – 1st leg: Bayern 1 Barcelona 1 2nd leg: Barcelona 3 Bayern 2
Barcelona through to the final.
Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid:
Borussia Dortmund – With a very impressive feat, Dortmund
won what many consider to be one of the toughest group stage draws of all-time
with Madrid, Manchester City, Ajax and themselves, all champions of their
respective domestic leagues. Dortmund
was unlucky not to win all six games within the group. They gave up a questionable 90th
minute penalty against Manchester City at the Etihad, and let Mesut Özil
equalize with less than 5 minutes remaining at the Bernabeu. They played an attractive, free-flowing style
of football that was difficult to defend, and were able to score some big goals
form Robert Lewandowski and Marco Reus.
They drew Shakatar in the round of 16, and while faced a difficult match
in the Ukraine, they preceded to cruise once they got back to the Signal Iduna
and took the round 5-2 aggregate. They
faced Malaga in the quarterfinals, and you may already know the story that got
them to this point. It’s one of the most
exciting moments I’ve witnessed as a football fan, and the whole city has
gotten behind them. For those of you
that haven’t heard, they were down 3-2 aggregate and needed to score twice to
get through to the semi-finals. With
less than 3 minutes to go, they struck the first one back, and then in the
dying seconds, Felipe Santana bumbled the ball over the line to start euphoria
among the 70,000.
Real Madrid – Nothing has gone easy for Real so far this
season. Every two weeks, fresh newspaper
reports claim that Mourinho and Cristiano Ronaldo are heading for “greener
pastures”. They haven’t been in their
domestic race since October. There have
been many rifts within the squad this season, and no one believes that Mourinho
knows what his strongest eleven really is.
Yet, here they are. They finished
second in Dortmund’s group, but did look like they were going through by
matchday 5. They played some exciting
matches vs Manchester City, and came back from a goal down beat them in
Madrid. In the round of 16, they drew
Manchester United, and looked to be struggling until they went up a man. Mourinho, with a stroke of magic, brought on
Luka Modric and within 5 minutes had Real Madrid going through to the
quarterfinals. Once there they met up
with Galatasaray, and although the final score made it seem like it was simple
going for Madrid, they had a difficult time handling the counter attack with
Didier Drogba at the forefront. They still won the first match 3-0, but with
their foot off the gas, gave Gala every opportunity to make things interesting before
Cristiano Ronaldo’s goal at the end put Madrid safely through to the
semi-finals.
Dortmund v Real Madrid:
Looking back at the last time these two teams played, Madrid had a
little bit of a difficult time handling the counter-attack of Borussia
Dortmund. Dortmund likes to attack
through their full-backs and then get the ball toward the middle where the
likes of Mario Gotze and Lewandowski can latch on to it. Madrid, and more Angel Di Maria and Cristiano
Ronaldo specifically have a hard time tracking back and marking these
full-backs. Mourinho might come into the
first leg and play three central midfielders that will keep Dortmund from
hitting on those quick breaks. He might
be better off playing Michael Essien, Xabi Alonso and Modric and wait until the
second half before bringing on a Di Maria or a Kaka. Madrid has plenty of options to use off the
bench, and Mourinho may even consider playing Karim Benzema and Gonzalo Higuain
at the same time. Dortmund usually doesn’t
defer from their normal formation, nor do they pick an eleven based on their
opponents. Madrid will know exactly
what they’re going to get, and we’ll see if Mourinho has the tactical wherewithal
to make adjustments and get Madrid to their first final with him at the helm.
My Prediction – 1st leg: Dortmund 2 Madrid 1 2nd leg: Madrid 2 Dortmund 1
Aggregate 3-3 and Dortmund will win on penalties.
Dortmund through to the final.
