Got both of these right. Not that I'm all that pleased about it, since I dislike both of these teams for their own reasons. Oh well...
Starting Pitching
Fister, Sanchez, Verlander, Scherzer
vs
Pettitte, Kuroda, Hughes, Sabathia
Advantage: Tigers
The reality of this is that I'm basing this advantage strictly on the fact that Verlander will have gm 3 and a possible 7 on regular rest, and Sabathia will have to come back on short rest to pitch in a game 7. Of course, this is assuming that the Yanks don't bring Sabathia back on short rest for game 3 to match up against Verlander. In that case, this is almost as pushy as push gets. But JV is the best pitcher in the AL, and he's more above Sabathia than one might think.
Fister == Pettitte
Sanchez < Kuroda
Verlander >>>> Hughes
Scherzer << Sabathia
Bullpen
Valverde, Benoit, Coke, Albuquerque
vs
Soriano, Robertson, Logan, Phelps
Advantage: Yankees
These series will come down much more to single-position advantages, and this could negate any starting pitcher advantage very easily. Valverde showed a vulnerability last series to an inferior offensive club. It's weakness I've thought was there, but it's not important what I think to the outcome of the series. The secondary guys will do what they will, but when it comes down to it, it'll be Valverde or Soriano, and right now, Soriano's the guy.
Lineup
Jackson 8, Infante 4, Cabrera 5, Fielder 3, Young 0, Peralta 6, Dirks 7, Garcia 9, Laird 2
vs
Jeter 6, Suzuki 7, Cano 4, Teixeira 3, Ibanez 0, Rodriguez 5, Swisher 9, Granderson 8, Martin 2
Advantage: Yankees
On the whole, I have to question Girardi's lineup choices much more than I do Leyland's. Granderson has too much power to hit 8th. Ichiro isn't a top-of-the-order hitter anymore. Ibanez' hot hand is a mirage. And yet, I still have to give them the advantage. The Tigers' lineup goes 4 deep. After Fielder, I'm not worried beyond a Young/Peralta one-off like last postseason. Jeter and Ichiro can't get on base like they used to, but they only need to do it once or twice in the right spot and Cano through Granderson could be merry-go-rounding until the proverbial cows come home, particularly if the Tigers' soft middle-relief gets into the game. Granted, Cabrera and Fielder can do as much damage as most teams, but I can't see it being enough.
Prediction: Yankees in 6
It has to be 6, because if they let Verlander take the mound, even in Yankee Stadium, and against Sabathia, the Tigers will take it in 7.
Sports
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
How to make the World Cup Qualifiers interesting
"International break" they call it. The weeks when the club teams take a break from their leagues, cups, drama, and routine and the international stage is alight with awful, tedious, abysmal Qualifiers for the next big international tournament. The weeks I dread, when I’ve just gotten back into the rhythm of seeing my team play once or twice a week, just gotten used to early mornings at the pub again, just gotten used to remembering to set my fantasy team before the first game of the week; this is when the international breaks strike.
Don’t get me wrong, I love watching national teams play, any time the U.S. plays Mexico or Germany takes down England I’m a happy guy. But when it interferes with the club football rhythm five or six times a season it’s just annoying. So here are a couple of ways to make it tolerable.
Don’t get me wrong, I love watching national teams play, any time the U.S. plays Mexico or Germany takes down England I’m a happy guy. But when it interferes with the club football rhythm five or six times a season it’s just annoying. So here are a couple of ways to make it tolerable.
- Just take a month and figure it out. What if February every year is dedicated to international tournaments? You could fit a lot of games into that time period, the teams would have time to gel together, and it would create a tournament like atmosphere where people would be more likely to pay attention. Do you know who your national team is playing this week?
- Do it in the summer months. Summers when the Euros and the World Cup are on are way better than summers without them, but the summers without them would be a lot better if it was full of qualifiers. The common thread with idea number 1 being that if the qualifiers all happened at once it would be easier to follow and you’d be much more likely to pay attention. The problem with this idea is that players need time to relax and rest once a year, you can tell when players haven’t had their proper time off during the summers months as they look languid and tired at the start of a new season.
- Don’t stop the club fixtures when the qualifiers are happening. I know I know, it sounds ludicrous but hear me out. Do they stop the club season when the African Cup of Nations is going on? No, it’s a nice twist in the plot every other season. Clubs would have to plan ahead for when their star players would be missing, thus forcing them to field a B team and/or develop a [gasp] serious youth system to fill in the gaps. The big problem would be players who don’t really care about their national team retiring from the international stage really early because they like their club team and its money better. But how cool would it be to see all the B-squad players in club matches that really count? There would be a lot more potential unearthed in those games than is currently happening at the club level.
Sunday, October 7, 2012
Baltimore vs New York
Starting Pitching
Hammel, Chen, Gonzalez, Saunders
vs
Sabathia, Pettitte, Kuroda, Hughes
Advantage: Yankees
Again, they're really not all that far apart. Which is strange considering the names involved. Sabathia and Pettitte have roughly as many playoff starts as the Orioles' rotation has regular season starts. Ok, I'm just making that one up, but it's not likely all that far off. What helps the Yanks most is that they can trim their 5th starter (Nova) and possibly use him to trim their other 5th starter (Hughes) to keep both from getting beaten up too badly. The Orioles can't take as much advantage of that, since their starters are all of roughly the same quality. The Yanks are a .5 BB/9 better and .9 K/9 better, and have a noticeable edge in FIP, 4.14 to 4.50. I give the Yankees an advantage in games 1-3.
Bullpen
Johnson, Strop, O'Day, Ayala
vs
Soriano, Robertson, Logan, Rapada
Advantage: Orioles
The likes of Johnson and Strop are what got the Orioles to the postseason. And this isn't the same Yankees bullpen without the great Mariano at the back. Soriano and Robertson have been excellent, but if Logan or Rapada see the light of a high-leverage situation, the result will not be pretty for the pinstripers. It may not matter if the Yanks' offense has its way, but if the games are close, the Orioles might be able to squeak by long enough to pull something unexpected.
Lineup
McLouth 7, Hardy 6, Jones 8, Wieters 2, Reynolds 3, Machado 5, Davis 9, Ford 0, Andino 4
vs
Jeter 6, Ichiro 7, Rodriguez 5, Cano 4, Swisher 9, Teixeira 3, Granderson 8, Martin 2, Ibanez 0
Advantage: Yankees
Hard not to give the Yanks the advantage here. Not to say it's a good thing that a DH is hitting 9th, but I'd prefer that to having Lew Ford as the DH. That and the fact that the Yankees led the AL in OBP and SLG while the Orioles were average or worse in both really sums up the story. The O's can't even claim a defensive advantage, because while the Yanks were bad, the O's were slightly worse! Second best offensive fWAR from the Yankees? Gotta go with that.
Prediction: Yankees in 4
I'd call sweep, but the O's have had too much crazy crap happening to write them off completely. Give 'em one, but there's not enough there there to roll to the LCS
Hammel, Chen, Gonzalez, Saunders
vs
Sabathia, Pettitte, Kuroda, Hughes
Advantage: Yankees
Again, they're really not all that far apart. Which is strange considering the names involved. Sabathia and Pettitte have roughly as many playoff starts as the Orioles' rotation has regular season starts. Ok, I'm just making that one up, but it's not likely all that far off. What helps the Yanks most is that they can trim their 5th starter (Nova) and possibly use him to trim their other 5th starter (Hughes) to keep both from getting beaten up too badly. The Orioles can't take as much advantage of that, since their starters are all of roughly the same quality. The Yanks are a .5 BB/9 better and .9 K/9 better, and have a noticeable edge in FIP, 4.14 to 4.50. I give the Yankees an advantage in games 1-3.
Bullpen
Johnson, Strop, O'Day, Ayala
vs
Soriano, Robertson, Logan, Rapada
Advantage: Orioles
The likes of Johnson and Strop are what got the Orioles to the postseason. And this isn't the same Yankees bullpen without the great Mariano at the back. Soriano and Robertson have been excellent, but if Logan or Rapada see the light of a high-leverage situation, the result will not be pretty for the pinstripers. It may not matter if the Yanks' offense has its way, but if the games are close, the Orioles might be able to squeak by long enough to pull something unexpected.
Lineup
McLouth 7, Hardy 6, Jones 8, Wieters 2, Reynolds 3, Machado 5, Davis 9, Ford 0, Andino 4
vs
Jeter 6, Ichiro 7, Rodriguez 5, Cano 4, Swisher 9, Teixeira 3, Granderson 8, Martin 2, Ibanez 0
Advantage: Yankees
Hard not to give the Yanks the advantage here. Not to say it's a good thing that a DH is hitting 9th, but I'd prefer that to having Lew Ford as the DH. That and the fact that the Yankees led the AL in OBP and SLG while the Orioles were average or worse in both really sums up the story. The O's can't even claim a defensive advantage, because while the Yanks were bad, the O's were slightly worse! Second best offensive fWAR from the Yankees? Gotta go with that.
Prediction: Yankees in 4
I'd call sweep, but the O's have had too much crazy crap happening to write them off completely. Give 'em one, but there's not enough there there to roll to the LCS
St. Louis vs Washington
Starting Pitching
Wainwright, Garcia, Carpenter, Lohse
vs
Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Jackson, Detwiler
Advantage: Nationals
Though really, this is probably a push. Much of the Nationals' numbers were accumulated with Strasburg, as were the Cardinals' without Carpenter. But Carpenter is coming off an injury, and Wainwright hasn't had his best year, or anything close. Further, Gonzalez has had his best year, with Zimmermann rounding back into the form he showed before getting injured. Hence, advantage Nats. Though, these two teams really were too close to tell, probably 1 & 2 for starters in the NL. Washington has an edge in K/9, which they give back in BB/9. Or, let's put it this way, the two teams' FIP ratings were 3.46 and 3.47. Doesn't matter which is which. For this particular set of matchups, I like Washington in games 1 - 3.
Bullpen
Motte, Boggs, Rzepczynski, Salas
vs
Clippard, Stammen, Mattheus, Burnett
Advantage: Nationals
Again, this is probably a push. If I were to rank these 8 players, I'd take Motte and Boggs, and then the four Washington guys. So, it becomes something of a conundrum. It's the postseason, so bullpens get pared down to the best, but the Cards will, inevitably, have to call on relievers other than Motte and Boggs, at which point they are at a disadvantage. The Nats, however, go a full six or seven players deep in their pen. The next two pitchers on the Nats' list, Storen and Gonzalez, were recently closers themselves. If any of these games go extras, the Nationals will win that game.
Starting Lineup
Jay 8, Beltran 9, Holliday 7, Craig 3, Molina 2, Freese 5, Descalso 4, Kozma 6
vs
Werth 9, Harper 8, Zimmerman 5, LaRoche 3, Morse 7, Desmond 6, Espinosa 4, Suzuki 2
Advantage: Cardinals
Once again, it's barely more than a push. The Cards' offense led the NL in OBP at .338 (Nats at .322), but ranked just behind the Nats in SLG (.428 to .421). The Nats were 2nd in HR in the NL with 194, while the Cards' 159 was middle of the pack. But the Cards were 2nd in the NL in runs scored with 765, and the Nats were middle of the pack with 731. Now, those margins aren't that big - about a HR every 4 games, and a run every 5, but they're noteworthy. Both teams' offenses rated above average after park adjustment - STL's OPS+ rated 107, with Washington at 102. Defensively, the Cards were slightly below average, while the Nats were slightly above.
Prediction: Nats in 3
Like I said, I like the Nationals' starting pitching matchups in those games, and, well, I just can't help but get behind the narrative brewing in DC.
Wainwright, Garcia, Carpenter, Lohse
vs
Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Jackson, Detwiler
Advantage: Nationals
Though really, this is probably a push. Much of the Nationals' numbers were accumulated with Strasburg, as were the Cardinals' without Carpenter. But Carpenter is coming off an injury, and Wainwright hasn't had his best year, or anything close. Further, Gonzalez has had his best year, with Zimmermann rounding back into the form he showed before getting injured. Hence, advantage Nats. Though, these two teams really were too close to tell, probably 1 & 2 for starters in the NL. Washington has an edge in K/9, which they give back in BB/9. Or, let's put it this way, the two teams' FIP ratings were 3.46 and 3.47. Doesn't matter which is which. For this particular set of matchups, I like Washington in games 1 - 3.
Bullpen
Motte, Boggs, Rzepczynski, Salas
vs
Clippard, Stammen, Mattheus, Burnett
Advantage: Nationals
Again, this is probably a push. If I were to rank these 8 players, I'd take Motte and Boggs, and then the four Washington guys. So, it becomes something of a conundrum. It's the postseason, so bullpens get pared down to the best, but the Cards will, inevitably, have to call on relievers other than Motte and Boggs, at which point they are at a disadvantage. The Nats, however, go a full six or seven players deep in their pen. The next two pitchers on the Nats' list, Storen and Gonzalez, were recently closers themselves. If any of these games go extras, the Nationals will win that game.
Starting Lineup
Jay 8, Beltran 9, Holliday 7, Craig 3, Molina 2, Freese 5, Descalso 4, Kozma 6
vs
Werth 9, Harper 8, Zimmerman 5, LaRoche 3, Morse 7, Desmond 6, Espinosa 4, Suzuki 2
Advantage: Cardinals
Once again, it's barely more than a push. The Cards' offense led the NL in OBP at .338 (Nats at .322), but ranked just behind the Nats in SLG (.428 to .421). The Nats were 2nd in HR in the NL with 194, while the Cards' 159 was middle of the pack. But the Cards were 2nd in the NL in runs scored with 765, and the Nats were middle of the pack with 731. Now, those margins aren't that big - about a HR every 4 games, and a run every 5, but they're noteworthy. Both teams' offenses rated above average after park adjustment - STL's OPS+ rated 107, with Washington at 102. Defensively, the Cards were slightly below average, while the Nats were slightly above.
Prediction: Nats in 3
Like I said, I like the Nationals' starting pitching matchups in those games, and, well, I just can't help but get behind the narrative brewing in DC.
Saturday, October 6, 2012
San Francisco vs Cincinnatti
Starting Pitching
Cain, Bumgarner, Lincecum, Vogelsong
vs
Cueto, Arroyo, Latos, Bailey
Advantage: Reds
San Francisco certainly has the name recognition advantage. Lincecum and Cain powered these guys to the World Championship just two short years ago. This year, well, it's been Cain. Bumgarner's been really good. But Lincecum? Not so much. What you might not have known is that Cueto for Cincy has been every bit Cain's equal. Latos was just before this season the offseason's biggest trade. The Reds' starters' ERA was BETTER than the Giants', despite playing in one of the most offense-happy ballparks in the league. Cincinnatti's team ERA+, which is a number rating a team's ERA against the league average with adjustment for park factor, is a whopping 127, with 100 as the average. San Francisco plays in a pitchers' park, and their team ERA+ was actually below average at 95. In the game-by-game, I like San Fran in game 1 and 2, and Cincy in 3 and 4, but the Reds' disadvantage in their losses is much smaller than the Giants'.
Bullpen
Casilla, Lopez, Romo, Affeldt
vs
Chapman, Marshall, Arredondo, Ondrusek
Advantage: Reds
Chapman and Marshall may be as devastating a 8th-9th combo as is left in the playoffs. Chapman only struck out 122 in 72 innings. Only Kimbrel had a higher rate. By comparison, Marshall's 10.9 K/9 is pedestrian. To be fair, San Fran's Romo has put together an amazing season himself, but it's hard to match him up against one of the all-time best relief seasons in Aroldis. Both bullpens drop off after their top two or three, but that's less an issue here. If the Reds have a lead after 7, the game is over.
Lineup
Pagan 8, Scutaro 4, Sandoval 5, Posey 2, Pence 9, Nady 7, Belt 3, Arias 6
vs
Phillips 4, Cozart 6, Votto 3, Ludwick 7, Bruce 9, Rolen 5, Hanigan 2, Stubbs 8
Advantage: Giants
Both of these teams have an MVP-caliber player to anchor their team around. Votto was toting an absurd .450 OBP for the better part of the first half. Posey has posted his own counterpart to Mauer's '09 season as far as offensive output from a catcher goes. Although the Giants had the fewest HR in the NL, a mere 103, they still managed to keep pace with the Reds as far as SLG goes (.411 to .397), most likely owing to the spacious outfield they call home. The Giants' ability to get on base (.325 OBP) allows them to take advantage of those extra base hits, to the point that they outscored the Reds this year 718 to 669. Fielding metrics had both teams slightly above average, so there isn't an advantage to be had there. It may take more hits to get their runs, but I think the Giants have more people able to get them than the Reds do.
Prediction: Reds in 4
I think the Reds sneak out game 1 despite a great performance from Cain, then take games 3 and 4 in Cincy. I like the Giants' team this year, but the Reds' pitching staff top to bottom is too much for me to ignore this time.
Cain, Bumgarner, Lincecum, Vogelsong
vs
Cueto, Arroyo, Latos, Bailey
Advantage: Reds
San Francisco certainly has the name recognition advantage. Lincecum and Cain powered these guys to the World Championship just two short years ago. This year, well, it's been Cain. Bumgarner's been really good. But Lincecum? Not so much. What you might not have known is that Cueto for Cincy has been every bit Cain's equal. Latos was just before this season the offseason's biggest trade. The Reds' starters' ERA was BETTER than the Giants', despite playing in one of the most offense-happy ballparks in the league. Cincinnatti's team ERA+, which is a number rating a team's ERA against the league average with adjustment for park factor, is a whopping 127, with 100 as the average. San Francisco plays in a pitchers' park, and their team ERA+ was actually below average at 95. In the game-by-game, I like San Fran in game 1 and 2, and Cincy in 3 and 4, but the Reds' disadvantage in their losses is much smaller than the Giants'.
Bullpen
Casilla, Lopez, Romo, Affeldt
vs
Chapman, Marshall, Arredondo, Ondrusek
Advantage: Reds
Chapman and Marshall may be as devastating a 8th-9th combo as is left in the playoffs. Chapman only struck out 122 in 72 innings. Only Kimbrel had a higher rate. By comparison, Marshall's 10.9 K/9 is pedestrian. To be fair, San Fran's Romo has put together an amazing season himself, but it's hard to match him up against one of the all-time best relief seasons in Aroldis. Both bullpens drop off after their top two or three, but that's less an issue here. If the Reds have a lead after 7, the game is over.
Lineup
Pagan 8, Scutaro 4, Sandoval 5, Posey 2, Pence 9, Nady 7, Belt 3, Arias 6
vs
Phillips 4, Cozart 6, Votto 3, Ludwick 7, Bruce 9, Rolen 5, Hanigan 2, Stubbs 8
Advantage: Giants
Both of these teams have an MVP-caliber player to anchor their team around. Votto was toting an absurd .450 OBP for the better part of the first half. Posey has posted his own counterpart to Mauer's '09 season as far as offensive output from a catcher goes. Although the Giants had the fewest HR in the NL, a mere 103, they still managed to keep pace with the Reds as far as SLG goes (.411 to .397), most likely owing to the spacious outfield they call home. The Giants' ability to get on base (.325 OBP) allows them to take advantage of those extra base hits, to the point that they outscored the Reds this year 718 to 669. Fielding metrics had both teams slightly above average, so there isn't an advantage to be had there. It may take more hits to get their runs, but I think the Giants have more people able to get them than the Reds do.
Prediction: Reds in 4
I think the Reds sneak out game 1 despite a great performance from Cain, then take games 3 and 4 in Cincy. I like the Giants' team this year, but the Reds' pitching staff top to bottom is too much for me to ignore this time.
Detroit vs Oakland
Starting Pitchers
Verlander, Fister, Sanchez, Scherzer
vs
Parker, Milone, Anderson, Griffin
Advantage: Tigers
At first glance, I think Detroit has the edge in gms 1, 2, and 4. Oakland's rotation choices are odd, in my opinion. I would've thought Anderson would've been the guy tabbed to face Verlander, as he's the most likely to match a Verlander outing. Also, Milone has heavy home-road splits, so he'd be the logical gm 3 choice in this format. Overall, the Tigers and A's were very evenly matched in starting pitching numbers. 90 quality starts each. Equivalent home run rates and walk rates. Starter ERA - A's 3.80, Tigers 3.76. Then the Tigers start separating. League-leading K/9 of 8.19 - A's 6.27. League-leading fWAR (SP only) of 20.5 - A's 13.6, where fWAR is the Wins Above Replacement metric used by fangraphs.com. In particular, I focus on the K/9 that the Tigers put up. The A's were the most strikeout-prone offense in the AL this year. Verlander and Scherzer will eat them up.
Bullpens
Valverde, Benoit, Coke, Dotel
vs
Balfour, Cook, Blevins, Doolittle
Advantage: Athletics
Full disclosure alert - I'm biased against the Tigers' pen. I think Valverde is the worst well-thought-of reliever in the game. I think Benoit is good, but had a fluky year that let everyone go crazy about him. I don't like the way the Tigers' mothers dress them. But looking over the numbers, there isn't much to distinguish the two. Tigers with a couple more strikeouts, and a couple less walks. Athletics less homer-prone. Even their FIP (fielding independent pitching) numbers rate out equal - DET 3.77, OAK 3.74. I guess this one comes down to feel for me, and I've got more faith in the A's, particularly when the chaff gets culled from the rosters and only the best relievers on a team see action.
Lineups
Jackson 8, Berry 7, Cabrera 5, Fielder 3, Young 0, Dirks 9, Peralta 6, Avila 2, Infante 4
vs
Crisp 8, Drew 6, Cespedes 7, Moss 3, Reddick 9, Donaldson 5, Smith 0, Norris 2, Pennington 4
Advantage: Tigers
This is another feel case. I want to say the Tigers are the better offense. They're better at getting on base (.335 to .310). They slug better (.422 to .404). They have a muuuuuch higher batting average (.268 to .238!). And yet, the Tigers only scored 13 more runs over the course of the season. This may be the "clutch" thing coming through, I don't know, but I do not feel it's a good predictive measure. The A's even out-homered the Tigers 195 to 163. And then we get to the defense. According to fangraphs again, the A's defense was as good as the Tigers' was bad. The A's compiled a UZR of 24.3, to the Tigers' -28.1. This discrepancy even pushed the A's WAR past the Tigers' (23.8 to 21.1), though the difference is small on a team scale. I think given a large enough sample, the Tigers would out-perform the A's, but the things the A's do better - homers, and not bungling things in the field - are the sorts of things that only need one of to be catastrophic in the post season.
Conclusion: Tigers in 5
I would've picked the Tigers to lose to the Yanks, Rangers, and Angels, but Texas' collapse and the A's surge have left two of those three out of the playoffs at this point. It may take two Verlander starts to do it, but I see the Tigers winning.
Friday, October 5, 2012
The MLB Wild Cards
So the season has culminated in these two games for two teams. Is this the best way to go about determining a champion? Well, there are worse *cough*BCS*cough*, but it's what we've got. So here's what we've got:
St. Louis Cardinals
at
Atlanta Braves
This is a little catharsis for the Braves after last year's collapse - yeah, remember that? - and a surprising, if under-publicized, result for the Cards, who still managed to make the playoffs after losing Pujols and Carpenter off of last year's team.
Starting Pitcher
Kyle Lohse
vs
Kris Medlen
Advantage: Braves
Medlen has been the second half's best pitcher in the NL, and stands as an example for how the Nationals should have handled Strasburg. They knew they had an innings limit they were working under, so they rationed the innings at the beginning of the year, moving him from the 'pen to the rotation, and getting rewarded with an amazing stat line: 10-1, 1.57/0.91, 7.8 K/9. On the other side, Dave Duncan has squeezed a longer career from an above-average pitcher out of Lohse, who was below average but above replacement level when the Twins traded him some years ago. To be fair, he's been far from a slouch this season, posting a 1.09 WHIP, and a K/9 of about 6 in 211 innings. For both teams, having to burn this pitcher for this situation lessens their probability of advancing past the next round, but that's the advantage the bigwigs were looking for when they imposed this new system. Lohse would be better than many other team's options in this game, but I can't ignore Medlen's line.
Bullpen
Advantage: Braves
Motte, Boggs, Salas, Rzepczynski
vs
Kimbrel, Durbin, Venters, O'Flaherty
This is very close, just comparing their numbers. Venters is the most noticeable drop-off from last year's studly corps assembled in Atlanta, and Kimbrel's insane 0.65 WHIP are what puts them over the top, though Motte's not too far off at 0.92. Bullpens are notoriously hard to predict on long-term samples, so really speaking with any confidence on a one-game matchup between bullpens is foolish. Therefore, I'll take the Braves, simply on my gut.
Starting Lineup
Jay 8, Beltran 9, Holliday 7, Craig 3, Molina 2, Freese 5, Descalso 4, Kozma 6
vs
Bourn 8, Prado 7, Heyward 9, Jones 5, Freeman 3, McCann 2, Uggla 4, Simmons 6
Advantage: Cardinals
These aren't necessarily either team's starting lineup, just an extrapolation from the teams' lineups of the past week. Going based on names only, I have to like the Braves. However, the Cards were 2nd in the NL in runs scored, and led the league in team OBP, whereas the Bravos were closer to league-average in both categories. Defensively, the two teams are roughly equal, as Molina's exceptional play is counteracted by Bourn's equal on the other side, and Holliday's struggles offset by Uggla's. Therefore, the Cards have the edge, but I can't say it's by a lot.
Prediction: Atlanta 5, St. Louis 3
I have to favor the hot hand of Medlen, and I just see an Uggla or McCann blast staking Atlanta to a lead they'll hold onto.
Baltimore Orioles
vs
Texas Rangers
The culmination of a cinderella story, though slightly disappointing, faces a repeat offender of recent playoffs past. Both had opportunities to be through this round free, but couldn't get the wins when they needed.
Starting Pitcher
Joe Saunders
vs
Yu Darvish
Advantage: Rangers
I think the clear advantage here is in Texas. Darvish got Trout'd out of a Rookie of the Year award, and hit first half decline overshadowed a second half with 7 of 15 starts wtih 9 k's or more and an opponents' OBP of .295. Saunders is an average NL starter who's done well in his 7 AL starts, but is a career 4.15 ERA, 5 k/9 pitcher well-suited to the middle, not the top, of a rotation.
Bullpen
Johnson, Strop, O'Day, Ayala
vs
Nathan, Adams, Ogando, Ross
Advantage: Orioles
Put simply, the Orioles have had the best bullpen in baseball this year. Their 5 most-used relievers all clocked in with ERAs under 2.65, and WHIP under 1.34, led by O'Day in both with 2.28/0.94. Now, that's not to say the Rangers' pen is very far behind, as those four, plus Uehara, make up probably the second-best top 5 in at least the AL. Texas has a better ability to get the key strikeout, but Baltimore has done a better job of getting outs, period. The edge is Baltimore's but it's narrow.
Starting Lineup
McLouth 7, Hardy 6, Davis 9, Jones 8, Wieters 2, Thome 0, Reynolds 3, Flaherty 4, Machado 5
vs
Kinsler 4, Andrus 6, Hamilton 8, Beltre 0, Cruz 9, Young 5, Murphy 7, Napoli 2, Moreland 3
This one shakes out more like you'd expect. The Rangers led baseball in runs scored this year and were 3rd in the AL in OBP, while the Orioles were just below the average in both categories. Much like in the NL matchup, the lesser offense has significant pop, which can swing the tides of a single-game situation quickly. The Rangers have plenty of pop of their own, and shouldn't have any problems keeping up if the game becomes a shootout. Defensively, the Rangers are hurt by Beltre being injured and taking his plus glove off the hot corner. Baltimore also figures to start Davis in right, which is quite a defensive liability, though Cruz is no slouch in the liability department himself. Wieters is a good defender behind the plate, and Napoli couldn't fully reproduce his solid '11 effort. On the whole, I like Baltimore a little better there, but not enough to compensate for the machine that is the Texas offense.
Prediction: Texas 8, Baltimore 2
Baltimore needs this to be a close game, where they've gotten inordinate luck to propel them to their record, but also allowing their bullpen to shoulder the load. Unfortunately for them, Texas won't give them that chance, getting to Saunders in the middle innings.
St. Louis Cardinals
at
Atlanta Braves
This is a little catharsis for the Braves after last year's collapse - yeah, remember that? - and a surprising, if under-publicized, result for the Cards, who still managed to make the playoffs after losing Pujols and Carpenter off of last year's team.
Starting Pitcher
Kyle Lohse
vs
Kris Medlen
Advantage: Braves
Medlen has been the second half's best pitcher in the NL, and stands as an example for how the Nationals should have handled Strasburg. They knew they had an innings limit they were working under, so they rationed the innings at the beginning of the year, moving him from the 'pen to the rotation, and getting rewarded with an amazing stat line: 10-1, 1.57/0.91, 7.8 K/9. On the other side, Dave Duncan has squeezed a longer career from an above-average pitcher out of Lohse, who was below average but above replacement level when the Twins traded him some years ago. To be fair, he's been far from a slouch this season, posting a 1.09 WHIP, and a K/9 of about 6 in 211 innings. For both teams, having to burn this pitcher for this situation lessens their probability of advancing past the next round, but that's the advantage the bigwigs were looking for when they imposed this new system. Lohse would be better than many other team's options in this game, but I can't ignore Medlen's line.
Bullpen
Advantage: Braves
Motte, Boggs, Salas, Rzepczynski
vs
Kimbrel, Durbin, Venters, O'Flaherty
This is very close, just comparing their numbers. Venters is the most noticeable drop-off from last year's studly corps assembled in Atlanta, and Kimbrel's insane 0.65 WHIP are what puts them over the top, though Motte's not too far off at 0.92. Bullpens are notoriously hard to predict on long-term samples, so really speaking with any confidence on a one-game matchup between bullpens is foolish. Therefore, I'll take the Braves, simply on my gut.
Starting Lineup
Jay 8, Beltran 9, Holliday 7, Craig 3, Molina 2, Freese 5, Descalso 4, Kozma 6
vs
Bourn 8, Prado 7, Heyward 9, Jones 5, Freeman 3, McCann 2, Uggla 4, Simmons 6
Advantage: Cardinals
These aren't necessarily either team's starting lineup, just an extrapolation from the teams' lineups of the past week. Going based on names only, I have to like the Braves. However, the Cards were 2nd in the NL in runs scored, and led the league in team OBP, whereas the Bravos were closer to league-average in both categories. Defensively, the two teams are roughly equal, as Molina's exceptional play is counteracted by Bourn's equal on the other side, and Holliday's struggles offset by Uggla's. Therefore, the Cards have the edge, but I can't say it's by a lot.
Prediction: Atlanta 5, St. Louis 3
I have to favor the hot hand of Medlen, and I just see an Uggla or McCann blast staking Atlanta to a lead they'll hold onto.
Baltimore Orioles
vs
Texas Rangers
The culmination of a cinderella story, though slightly disappointing, faces a repeat offender of recent playoffs past. Both had opportunities to be through this round free, but couldn't get the wins when they needed.
Starting Pitcher
Joe Saunders
vs
Yu Darvish
Advantage: Rangers
I think the clear advantage here is in Texas. Darvish got Trout'd out of a Rookie of the Year award, and hit first half decline overshadowed a second half with 7 of 15 starts wtih 9 k's or more and an opponents' OBP of .295. Saunders is an average NL starter who's done well in his 7 AL starts, but is a career 4.15 ERA, 5 k/9 pitcher well-suited to the middle, not the top, of a rotation.
Bullpen
Johnson, Strop, O'Day, Ayala
vs
Nathan, Adams, Ogando, Ross
Advantage: Orioles
Put simply, the Orioles have had the best bullpen in baseball this year. Their 5 most-used relievers all clocked in with ERAs under 2.65, and WHIP under 1.34, led by O'Day in both with 2.28/0.94. Now, that's not to say the Rangers' pen is very far behind, as those four, plus Uehara, make up probably the second-best top 5 in at least the AL. Texas has a better ability to get the key strikeout, but Baltimore has done a better job of getting outs, period. The edge is Baltimore's but it's narrow.
Starting Lineup
McLouth 7, Hardy 6, Davis 9, Jones 8, Wieters 2, Thome 0, Reynolds 3, Flaherty 4, Machado 5
vs
Kinsler 4, Andrus 6, Hamilton 8, Beltre 0, Cruz 9, Young 5, Murphy 7, Napoli 2, Moreland 3
This one shakes out more like you'd expect. The Rangers led baseball in runs scored this year and were 3rd in the AL in OBP, while the Orioles were just below the average in both categories. Much like in the NL matchup, the lesser offense has significant pop, which can swing the tides of a single-game situation quickly. The Rangers have plenty of pop of their own, and shouldn't have any problems keeping up if the game becomes a shootout. Defensively, the Rangers are hurt by Beltre being injured and taking his plus glove off the hot corner. Baltimore also figures to start Davis in right, which is quite a defensive liability, though Cruz is no slouch in the liability department himself. Wieters is a good defender behind the plate, and Napoli couldn't fully reproduce his solid '11 effort. On the whole, I like Baltimore a little better there, but not enough to compensate for the machine that is the Texas offense.
Prediction: Texas 8, Baltimore 2
Baltimore needs this to be a close game, where they've gotten inordinate luck to propel them to their record, but also allowing their bullpen to shoulder the load. Unfortunately for them, Texas won't give them that chance, getting to Saunders in the middle innings.
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