The Championship Games

NFL Championship Games

 

            This is the weekend where most NFL fans’ psyche proceed to forget which teams made it this far during the season.  I have little trouble naming the winner and loser of every Super Bowl since 1967, but what I can’t do is name the teams that made it to their conference’s championship games.  There are a few that make it in the minds of NFL fans, namely the 1998 Minnesota Vikings and the four NFC championship games that the Eagles couldn’t get past in the Andy Reid era.  Today, legacies will be made, past mistakes forgotten, and new memories created.  Enjoy the games everyone!

 

GM 1: San Francisco vs Atlanta

            Most of the sporting world is betting against the Atlanta Falcons this afternoon.  They have a hard time getting past this point, and Matt Ryan has yet to be known as a “playoff quarterback”.  San Francisco has hit their high point, their confidence is running high, and the quarterback switch back in November has worked out beautifully for them.  Both teams do have a couple of ghosts to think about today, and the 49ers really should’ve been in the super bowl last season.  Today, I think both teams want to slow down the tempo in order to keep the other offense off the field.  I believe both teams think that the other teams quarterback is the reason they have been successful up to this point.  Look for both teams to attempt power running games early, and then set up play action and try to take some shots downfield.  I am going to agree with the majority of NFL experts and those casual as well, and pick the 49ers.  Aldon Smith and Justin Smith will make it difficult for Matty Ryan.

 

49ers by 7

 

GM 2:  Baltimore vs New England

            A back story in this matchup as well.  Going back to last year, the Patriots probably were outplayed on their home field, but were able to have a date in the Super Bowl thanks to the slippery hands of Lee Evans, and the nerves of Billy Cundiff.  New England is always a difficult place to play, but Baltimore does have a bit of success here.  I also think that Tom Brady would’ve preferred to say Peyton and the Broncos, than Joe and the Ravens.  Although the Ravens appear to be emotionally spent after last week’s overtime victory, John Harbaugh will probably have an efficient game plan, and the team ready to go this Sunday.  As opposed to the NFC matchup, where I believe the game will be won on the field, I think this game will be decided by the coaches and who has the better game plan.  It’s extremely difficult to bet against Bill Belicheck in this situation, but I do think that the firing of their offensive coordinator and the opening up of the playbook since then plays into the Ravens hands.  Harbaugh gets to see his brother, and for the first time in my life, I will have predicted the super bowl matchup prior to the start of the season.  Maybe the reason for my pick?

Ravens by 3

NFL True MVP's

The Most Valuable Player award is often given to the most outstanding player that season, or who is considered to have had the best season. However, many of us know that it doesn’t always equate to the player who is the most valuable to their team. This is what I call the TMVP, or the Truly Most Valuable Player award. So what’s the difference? This award goes to the player who is most indispensible to his team. To the player who’s team would absolutely collapse and crumble without him more so than any other player out there. Without further addition, here are my contenders for the prestigious TMVP award.

4^th Runner-up: Tom Brady

Photo courtesy of The Brit_2

Normally you’d have to put Tom Brady higher on this list, because as far as anybody knows this team could fall back into decades of mediocrity without him at the reigns. That’s just it though, nobody really knows. Ever since “The Golden Boy” took over for an injured Drew Bledsoe nobody has ever known this team as anything but one of the biggest threats in the NFL. However, Brady has a lot more help now than he did in those early Super Bowl runs. The defense is better, the receivers are better, the running backs are better, the tight ends are better, the whole team is better. Even given that, you can’t say for certain this is more than a 6-win team without Brady on it, it’s simply something we haven’t seen. Given what he accomplished with virtually nothing in the past though, it’s hard to really definitively say how much more than nothing he has right now. There are just too many players who look drastically better with Tom Brady on their team to not have him on this list.

3^rd Runner-up: Aaron Rodgers

Photo courtesy of Mike Morbeck

There’s no question Aaron Rodgers is the spark plug that makes the Packers go, and where would they be without him? Does anybody have any faith in Graham Harrell taking this same team anywhere? While we’ve seen formerly pro-bowl passing options like Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and Jermichael Finley fall to the wayside, it hasn’t stopped Rodgers from being one of the best of the best. That’s impressive, given it’s a status he managed to maintain by relying more on simply serviceable players like Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Randall Cobb. He even mixed a little Tom Crabtree in there. All on a team has barely been able to run the ball the past few years. Make no mistake about it, without Rodgers manning the helm, all would be lost in Lambeau, and little could be done about it.

2^nd Runner-up: Drew Brees

Photo courtesy of IAN RANSLEY DESIGN + ILLUSTRATION

Sure, maybe the New Orleans Saints didn’t have the best season in the world, probably impacted by the whole “bounty-gate” scandal that was there, then kinda-sorta there, then not so much there anymore. Yeah, there’s no question with guys like Sproles, Colston, Jahri Evans, and super-stud Jimmy Graham there is certainly some talent on this team, but no Drew Brees would put this team in the basement the moment he stepped off the field. Forget about statistical leader, Drew Brees is the emotional leader of this team, and while going 7-9 is nothing to brag to anybody about, it is still an impressive feat if you take into consideration that the Saints gave up more points per game than the Raiders, Eagles, and Jaguars. What do you expect to happen if you have to put up 35 points every week to guarantee yourself a victory? Now imagine trying to do that without Drew Brees. Exactly.

1^st Runner-up: Adrian Peterson

Photo courtesy of Mike Morbeck

Take a team with a bad quarterback. Add to that, really bad wide receivers. Now remove the one good wide receiver on the team.  Mix in a bad offensive line. Stir. This should be a recipe for complete and utter disaster. Instead, over 2,000 yards later your running back who was returning from reconstructive knee surgery is dragging a team that should have been fighting for the first pick in the NFL draft into the playoffs. Somebody made the argument that you could have easily put Jared Allen on this list, and the same notion would hold true, the Minnesota Vikings would have completely collapsed. That said, it doesn’t make it any less true that Adrian Peterson was the closest thing you could find to a one-man team that wasn’t a signal caller. Nobody should have been able to do what he did coming back from that injury, nobody should have been able to do what he did even if they weren’t coming back off of injury. Most astoundingly, no one player should have been able to be added to this team and push them into a playoff birth. It should be obvious to everybody now that in Adrian Peterson’s world, you’re capable of doing what shouldn’t be possible. Peterson is the definition of a truly irreplaceable commodity in this league. It’s only a miracle that this guy doesn’t win this award, and in many ways you could argue he could have.

Winner: Andrew Luck

Photo courtesy of NFLfan18

That’s right, a rookie. Maybe not what you were expecting to see, but if you think about it the proof is already there. Now I know, I know, the guy tied Mark Sanchez for second most interceptions thrown this year, and had a worse completion percentage than Sanchez which ranked near the bottom of the league. He was 26^th in the league with a 76.5 passer rating. This all means nothing in the grand scheme of things. What made Luck a great stand out player are the intangibles. This is not a dink-and-dunk passer. The Colts had no running game to speak of and his offensive line was horrendous all year long, but he still managed to throw for over 4,000 yards. He was so clutch this year you almost wonder if he didn’t steal it from Eli Manning before the season started (at least that would explain what happened to Manning). He completed a ridiculous 83.9% of his passes on first down, but also touted an impressive 37.6% conversion rate on third downs, virtually unparalleled for a rookie quarterback. Again, the interceptions and low completion rate can be contributed primarily (outside of not having an offensive line or a running game) to one major factor: the guy is not a dink-and-dunk passer. Luck throws the ball as a quarterback was originally meant to, downfield, with remarkable consistency. It didn’t help him that his receivers seemed to drop as many passes as you could without looking like you don’t belong in the NFL. He was great at causing defenses to create their own penalties with hard counts (that intangibles thing again). If none of these stats convince you that he’s deserving of this award I have one final stat for you. Without Andrew Luck the Colts went 2-14. With Andrew Luck the Colts went 11-5, losing in the playoffs to a Ravens team who are now in the AFC Championship game. I rest my case.

Divisional Playoff Predictions

Looks like I’m finally getting better at this.  From going 1-3 in the 2012 wild-card NFL playoffs, to getting all 4 correct last week, it now appears that I might know something about the game of football.  Either that or the picks were really easy.  Regardless, this is my favorite week of the NFL season.  More often than not, it’s the eight teams most deserving of playing for the super bowl.  I am still shocked that the New York Giants are no longer with us this season, but outside of that, I believe we will see the best the NFL has to offer.

GM 1: Baltimore vs. Denver.  

It’s amazing how much of a difference one year makes.  Last year we thought that the Denver Broncos were riding the Tim Tebow wave, and it was his magic that pushed the Denver Broncos into the divisional round of the playoffs.  Now we know better.  This is one of the most balanced teams in football, and they enter the playoffs without being vulnerable at any position, including special teams.  They can beat you with the lead, or playing from behind.  It’s a tough predicament for the Baltimore Ravens.  Based on talent levels this game should be close.  The Ravens have plenty of talent, and can beat any team in the NFL on their day.  If Joe Flacco can keep up with the Broncos (because I believe the Broncos will control the clock today), they have a chance.  It’s small, but a chance none the less.

Broncos by 3

GM 2: Green Bay vs. San Francisco.

The two NFC games are brutal to pick.  The 49ers come into the game being the only team that beat the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau this year.  Green Bay was at full strength, and they were played off the field.  However, the 49ers have been the least predictable team in the NFL since then.  They’ve blown out teams, they’ve been blown out, they won at Foxboro, they tied the Rams.  They should win this game.  They have a pass rush that can get to Aaron Rodgers.  Their pass defense is among the league’s best.  They can control the clock by running with Gore.  Green Bay will need to get into 5 WR formations frequently.  If they can score TD’s instead of field goals, they can easily go into San Francisco and win.  I don’t think it will be easily, but they should get the job done.

Packers by 7

GM 3: Seattle vs. Atlanta

Whoo whee!  This is going to be a doozy.  The NFL’s first half leaders against the second half leaders.  A huge back story with the Atlanta Falcons.  They have been at this point a number of times since they drafted Matt Ryan.  Yet, he has yet to get them past the divisional round.  Even Michael Vick led the Falcons to the NFC Championship game once.  They traded a valuable number of draft choices to bring in Julio Jones, to create even more mismatches.  Then, they draw the Seattle Seahawks, the one team in the league that matches up with Atlanta perfectly.  A soft run defense which is Atlanta's only deficiency, you say?  Seattle will pound them with Marshawn Lynch.  Two fantastic wide receivers?  Best secondary in the NFL.  Great home field advantage down in Atlanta?  Seattle has won at Chicago, at Washington and beat Buffalo by four TD’s on the road since November.  All signs point toward Seattle, so I think I will roll with an upset.

Falcons by 3

GM 4:  Houston vs. New England

It looks to be a gimme game.  The New England Patriots are probably the most difficult match up in football right now, with the running game clicking, the defense creating turnovers, and Tom Brady continuing to be... well... Tom Brady.  The problem for me is, they only beat the Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 just a couple of weekends ago.  That could signify a couple of things.  First, they didn’t really care as they probably knew the most conservative of game plans would get a win.  Second, there are some dents in the armor, and they will be beaten soon.  Third, some Jaguars were playing for their futures in the league.  I think it’s a little bit of all three, but they are going to be really hard to beat.  Lucky for Houston, they have exactly what the doctor ordered.  They can keep Tom Brady off the field with a healthy dose of Arian Foster and Ben Tate.  They also have good news in that every single contributing player will be healthy and ready to go. Their defense played very against the Bengals last week, and kept Dalton from making throws downfield.  Will that be enough?  I think they need a little more.

Patriots by 13

Dear NFL Fans

Dear fans,

I know there are only 2 of you, but I still get to type fans in plural, so that’s very exciting for me.  My apologies for being gone so long, but this was obviously my busiest December of all time what with the kids and everything. I still got to watch football though, and it probably was one of the most exciting seasons in recent memory.  Except for the disappointing Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Giants.  I thought that perhaps that would be a Super Bowl preview, instead both of those organizations are already golfing this off-season. 

I'll try and keep this blog post short and beautiful.  A recap of my predictions for the year and how I fared, followed by a playoff preview.  First record will be my prediction, followed by the real thing.  Let’s hope I got some right!

AFC East

1. Patriots 13-3    1. Patriots 12-4. 

2. Bills 9-7           2. Dolphins 7-9

3. Jets 7-9            3. Bills 6-10

4. Dolphins 5-11  4. Jets 6-10

Not to far off.  I obviously didn’t think the Patriots could lose to Arizona, they proved me wrong.  Dolphins defense held up better than I thought, and I didn’t see Revis going out for the whole season.  Pretty predictable division, however.

AFC North

1. Steelers 12-4            1. Ravens 10-6

2. Ravens 11-5            2. Bengals 10-6

3. Bengals 9-7              3. Steelers 8-8

4. Browns 3-13            4. Browns 5-11

Weeden was a little better than I expected, and I didn’t think Ben would miss a game.  The Ravens & Bengals would’ve been exactly right if the Ravens didn’t sit the entire team in the final game of the year.  I’ll call this a push.

AFC South

1. Texans 11-5             1. Texans 12-4

2. Titans 6-10               2. Colts 11-5

3. Colts 5-11                3. Titans 6-10

4. Jaguars 1-15            4. Jaguars 2-14.

Didn’t give the Jaguars enough credit.  Shame, shame.  Also, I love Andrew Luck.  I want my 3 boys to be like Andrew Luck.  But not in my wildest dreams did I think he’d win 11 and get to the playoffs.  Simply astounding. Yay on Texans and Titans.

AFC West

1. Chiefs 11-5              1. Broncos 13-3

2. Broncos 8-8             2. Chargers 7-9

3. Raiders 7-9              3. Raiders 4-12

4. Chargers 7-9            4. Chiefs 2-14

According to my predictions, everyone in Kansas City should have been fired for that debacle.  Well, my guess is that this will be the last time anyone offers a one-year wonder a 30 million dollar contract to play quarterback.  Nope, Seattle did it to.  Anyway, I thought Peyton would miss 8 games, Peyton thought that I meant win 8 games at home.  Missed by 1, Peyton.

NFC East

1. Giants 11-5              1. Redskins 10-6

2. Eagles 11-5              2. Giants 9-7

3. Cowboys 6-10         3. Cowboys 8-8

4. Redskins 6-10          4. Eagles 4-12

No one can claim victory on the Philadelphia Eagles; I saw no predictions of them winning less than 8 games.  I also didn’t see anyone pick Washington to win this division.  I think I gave them more wins than most as I said, “Washington will win a few upsets, but they really have it all to do to win 8+ games in this division.” They did it all.

NFC North

1. Packers 11-5           1. Packers 11-5

2. Lions 11-5               2. Vikings 10-6

3. Bears 10-6               3. Bears 10-6

4. Vikings 5-11            4. Lions 4-12

By Lions I meant Vikings, and by Vikings I meant Lions.  Seriously, if AP had just told me that he was a better runner after his devastating injury, I probably would’ve considered this.  But I never imagined that he’d hit 2,000.  Packers and Bears exactly right, and I only missed one exact game on both of them. (Colts/Texans; Seahawks/Lions)

NFC South

1. Falcons 13-3            1. Falcons 13-3

2. Saints 9-7                 2. Saints 7-9    

3. Panthers 6-10           3. Panthers 7-9

4. Bucs 6-10                4. Bucs 7-9

Whoo hoo!  Only missed it by 4 total games!  I thought the Saints would push for the playoffs, but that 0-4 start killed them.  Carolina’s schedule was one of the league’s toughest, but I think they are on the right track.  Cam didn’t struggle too much against some of the NFL’s best pass defenses (Giants, Broncos, Cowboys)

NFC West

1. 49ers 12-4               1. 49ers 11-4-1

2. Seahawks 7-9          2. Seahawks 11-5

3. Cardinals 5-11         3. Rams 7-8-1

4. Rams 2-14               4. Cardinals 5-11 (4-0; 1-11)

Really underestimated the defensive talent in this division.  Almost predicted Arizona exactly right, “I could see the Cardinals running off 4 straight wins before cooling off.”  I just didn’t think they would beat the Patriots, and then lose to the Rams twice.  Damn 49ers tie really screwed me.  But I did see Seattle’s potential which I am proud of.  I did have Bradford missing 12+ games though...

AFC playoff teams correct: Baltimore, New England, Houston.

NFC playoff teams correct: Atlanta, S.F, Green Bay

Yuck.  6/12.  Should’ve put Cincy over Buffalo, and Denver...ahhhh!!!! NFC 3 were extremely difficult to predict, as the Vikings, Redskins and Seahawks won all of 15 games combined in 2011.

Super Bowl: Baltimore vs San Francisco.  Still have a shot, I suppose.  Wouldn’t spend my hard earned dollars betting on it though.

Injuries: The only one I got right was Matt Cassel. 

Surprises: Thank you very much on the Julio Jones.  Probably one of top 3 receivers in the NFL now.  Dashon Goldson I hit on too.  Missed on Ashlon Jeffery and DeMeco Ryans, although DeMeco was pretty solid for the Eagles. 

Not bad, but I really wish I could’ve had the Peyton and Sammy Bradford injuries back.  Really think I get close on my picks then.  Outside of Indy, Washington and Kansas City of course. 

Playoffs!?!?  You wanna talk about playoffs?!?!  You kidding me??

GM 1: Cincinnati at Houston. 

This sets up really well for the Bengals.  Houston really doesn’t want to be here, as their final two games indicated.  They had 2 beautiful chances to lock up the #1 seed, and missed badly.  That being said, they are a really tough match-up for most teams, and I think they could keep Dalton and A.J. Green off the field.  Look for the two running games to try and establish some clock control.  I’ll give it to Houston, but I really don’t like this pick. 

Texans by 4

GM 2: Minnesota at Green Bay.

Probably the toughest to pick of all the weekend games.  Minnesota is one of the two hottest teams in football, in my opinion.  They won on the road in Houston, and then beat the Packers at home to finish off the year.  The running game is the best in the league, and Ponder isn’t turning the ball over. That being said, all the Packers horses are coming back in time for this game.  If Woodson, Matthews, Cobb, Nelson and Jennings show no lingering effects, it should be enough to neutralize the AP factor.

Packers by 6

GM 3: Indy at Baltimore

Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano are a great story for the NFL this year.  I wouldn’t guess that the ride would be over, and they could continue in their early quest toward another Super Bowl run.  However, the Ravens are playing off of full emotion right now, and they are a tough team to beat at home.  It is likely Ray Lewis’s last season (do you believe him), plus Ed Reed and some others are losing tread.  I think that Ray Rice is the key factor, and finally has a big game for one of the few times this season.  No Billy Cundiff to mess things up either.

Ravens by 10

GM 4: Seattle at Washington.

The other two hot teams in the league.  I don’t really consider the Washington Redskins to be a hot team, but they understand how to win in the close games.  This is actually a really tough match-up for the Seahawks as their defense can't just rush to the ball.  They are really all about pursue, pursue, pursue.  Washington does a great job blocking for their backfield, and they run a lot of misdirections and interesting options.  Look for the turnover battle and the special teams to decide this one, and I think Russell Wilson continues to shine.  Both #1 and #2 picks fall early.

Seahawks by 3

MLB Offseason Review (part 1)

Hey folks, I'm back for a little mid-winter baseball talk.  Your team didn't make the playoffs in the NFL?  Hope springs anew for your stickball team!  Down in the dumps because the NHL greed contest is keeping them off the ice?  Help me look forward to the eventual ice melt and the sunny days beyond!  So, let's recap the offseason in chronological order, starting nowhere better than at the end!

- San Francisco wins the World Series in 4 games.

Obviously, as you read here, I had San Fran winning that series, but not that easily. After Verlander got knocked around in game 1 - beat by Barry Zito, no less - the Giants had the Series by the short 'n curlies, with advantageous pitching matchups in games 2 and 4, and a roughly even shot in game 3. The Tigers offense was never allowed off the ground, and it was over.
Congrats to San Francisco for their 2nd title in 3 years.

- Miguel Cabrera wins the AL MVP over Mike Trout



I think the wrong guy won. Now, don't get me wrong, Cabrera was a deserving candidate, winning a trifecta of league titles that bear a significant amount of emotional cache among baseball fans and media alike. He had a historical season. But so did Trout. Trout matched or bested Cabrera in traditional batting numbers - .326/399/.564 vs Miggy's .330/.393/.606. The differences there between them are a matter of 3 hits in the season, or 6 walks, or 24 total bases. These are largely negligible on the breadth of a season. The total base discrepancy is a bit more significant, though Cabrera's home run advantage accounts for much of it. What tipped it for me was the addition of speed and defense in Trout's game over Cabrera. Trout lead the league with 49 stolen bases, contrasted with Cabrera's 4, not to mention the impact of any extra bases taken because of his speed, which are not so easily measured here numerically. In terms of defense, numerical measures are much less precise, though Trout consistently rated as well above average at a premium defensive position, i.e. 11.0 UZR in CF, and Cabrera was well below average at a less premium position, i.e. -9.9 UZR at 3B. For me, those things outweigh Cabrera's power advantage and RBI totals.

- Toronto Blue Jays sign 3B Maicer Izturis.
Chicago Cubs sign RHP Scott Baker.
Detroit Tigers sign OF Torii Hunter

None of these moves is particularly earth-shaking. Izturis is a nice complementary piece, especially as a backup infielder. Solid defense, hits for average, decent speed. He's a useful player. Baker's a decent gamble for the money he was given ($5.5M w/incentives). I had hoped he would return to the Twins on a similar make-good sort of deal, but I'm also not disappointed to see him go. It's a good move for him to go to the NL, and it's good for the Cubs to get a potentially tradeable asset at a reasonable price if he pans out. I'm generally unable to knock a one-year deal too badly, and this one's OK. Torii moves into Detroit's outfield as an upgrade over whoever he ends up replacing - he's better on both sides of the ball than Boesch or Rhymes or Delmon or whoever else Detroit put out there aside from Austin Jackson. It may be worth a win, maybe two, to the Tigers next year, which will likely keep them atop the division.

- Twins trade OF Denard Span to Nationals for MiLB RHP Alex Meyer

 This was a very interesting trade across the board.  The Twins shipped their most valuable trade chip in terms of player skill + contract status to Washington, who returned a first-round-caliber arm.  For Washington, this fills their need for a bona-fide CF and lead-off man.  Span's career .357 OBP fits well at the top of the lineup, with 20 SB speed to go with it.  This allows them to keep Werth and Harper on the corners, where their skills fit better, and keeps them from playing Morse or some similar statue-like defender in the outfield.  Their pitching staff will certainly see some benefit from this move.  It's the sort of move you want your team to make if your team is of playoff caliber.  For the Twins, it's a move that actually gives them hope.  Span, while a useful player and a popular one, to boot, was not going to be instrumental in this team's return to the playoffs based on his contract and age.  Better to move him now, while at close to his peak value, than to wait for him to potentially get hurt again, or decline physically, or any number of other things.  In return, they pick up a power arm and potentially-legitimate top-line starter, which is the sort of thing the system has been bereft of for a decade - not since Liriano's emergence has there been a pitcher with this much talent in the Twins' system.  Of course, as a prospect, he's not a sure thing, and there are any number of things that could go wrong before he arrives in the majors, but even then, it's these sort of high-upside gambles that an irrelevant team needs to take to attempt to return to relevance.  If he works out, it will more than worth the cost.

- Braves trade RHP Tommy Hanson to Angels for RHP Jordan Walden

This is an interesting trade for much different reasons than the above one.  Both teams are, in effect, selling low on an asset here that once may have been thought to be an integral part of their team's future.  Hanson looked like a legit #2 starter for the Braves before shoulder issues sapped his velocity and, with it, his effectiveness.  A trade like this signifies that the Braves don't think he can be rehabilitated, and are trying to get while the getting's good.  A move to the AL for Hanson doesn't likely bode well for his numbers, but the Angels sorely needed starting pitching after so many of last year's rotation have vacated the premesis (Greinke, Big Erv, Haren), and they needed to take a gamble that he could recapture at least some of his magic.  If the shoulder recovers, he's the sort of durable guy that can go 200 innings easily.  For the Braves, I'm more curious why they wanted Walden moreso than getting rid of Hanson.  The Braves have a wealth of young pitching ready for the majors and only so many rotation spots to give to them, so Hanson was clearly an excess to be moved.  The bullpen, however, with Kimbrel as its crown jewel, was a strong element to their squad.  I would've thought an outfielder or 3B or prospect depth would've been more their target, but it seems that having Walden across from Venters in front of Kimbrel will allow Fredi to play matchups more and keep Venters' innings down this coming year after he was clearly feeling the effects of overuse from '10.  This trade will show its returns soon as both will be key members of their teams' '12 campaigns.

That brings us up to the end of November - December review coming soon.

The Excruciating Road To A Title: Why Everyone Should Respect The Heat’s 2012 Championship

It all started in the 2004-2005 season, a year in which Dwyane Wade pleaded for some help, and the team responded in kind giving up a moderately bright future in exchange for one of the most dominant players in NBA history, the mammoth Shaquille O’Neal. The trade included the versatile and still young Lamar Odom, Caron Butler, Brian Grant, and a first round pick. While the trade forced the Heat to give away a moderately promising future, what they got back ended up being the key piece to a title. Unfortunately, it wasn’t meant to be that year as Wade went on to get injured in the Eastern Conference finals against the Detroit Pistons, and Detroit came back to beat the Heat in game seven 88-82.

         However the next season saw Dwyane Wade achieve his vindication. The Heat re-upped their lineup acquiring Jason Williams, Antoine Walker, James Posey, and Gary Payton. When O’Neal went down with an injury colliding with Ron Artest, the Heat began to struggle. As the team languished, head coach Stan Van Gundy resigned his post for what were supposedly family reasons (although many have speculated otherwise) Pat Riley stepped in to take the reigns. In what some analysts call possibly the greatest playoff performance in NBA history, Dwyane Wade rallied the Heat back to the Eastern Conference finals and redeemed himself by aiding the team to a defeat of the defending Eastern Conference champion Pistons to lead the team into the NBA finals. Once there, the Heat proceeded to drop the first two games to a formidable Dallas Mavericks team. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter of game 3 when the Heat turned the tide, and never looked back. Riding a scorching hot Wade averaging 34.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.67 steals, and 1.00 blocks per game the Heat performed one of the NBA finals greatest comebacks rallying back to win the next four games in a row. Finally they had claimed their elusive title, and the gamble for Shaq had paid off.

         However the next season was not so fruitful. Injuries plagued the team, and while they won the division, they floundered into the 4^th seed in the playoffs and were quickly dispatched in the first round by the Bulls 4-0. Things only got worse from there. The following season much of the championship squad was gone. Wade suffered another injury-plagued season, Pat Riley relinquished his role as head coach to have knee surgery, Alonzo Mourning tore a patellar tendon and missed the rest of the season, and a very vocally disgruntled Shaquille O’Neal moaned and groaned his way into a requested trade to the Phoenix Suns. Despite the team winning him a title, and trading him as he asked to be, to the team he asked to be traded to, Shaq still found it necessary to publicly berate the organization and fans before leaving and after leaving Miami. A great consolation after the miserable season, Miami netted the second pick in the NBA draft, but after watching Derrick Rose go off the board in the first pick to the Chicago Bulls who had eliminated them from the playoffs in embarrassing fashion the Heat drafted the highly touted Michael Beasley, who needless to say, had an underwhelming NBA career in Miami while Rose quickly became a superstar.

         Heat fans would spend the next two years wondering what they would do to get back to being a championship caliber team. The fans knew that time was running short; because with a player like Dwyane Wade, you had to show you were willing to be competitive if you wanted to keep an all-star of his caliber around. Wade in turn was making sure everybody else knew that he wouldn’t be signing an extension until the team did just that. The organization was not sending encouraging signs. While Wade’s contract was due to expire in 2010, Pat Riley made it clear that until the 2010 offseason the Heat would be making no major changes to become more competitive. This started a kind of game of chicken if you will, with Wade publicly threatening to leave, and Riley constantly reminding everybody he wouldn’t make a move until his contract was up in 2010. The whole city held their breath for two years wondering if their beloved superstar would even be around by the time the organization was ready to move on anything.

         By the time the 2010 offseason rolled around, Heat fans were in a panic. Off the court problems with his wife and kids made it look incredibly likely that Wade would end up in Chicago along with the superstar they missed out on, Derrick Rose, and the team that had handed them some considerable heartache. Wade’s kids were in Chicago, Wade himself was from Chicago, and there was little doubt his presence in the windy city would make the Bulls an instant competitor. He was going through a very messy divorce that could have seen his wife getting custody of his children, and moving them to their home in Chicago. Wade had recently left Converse to join Michael Jordan’s Jumpman brand, his divorce proceeding were getting messy, and the prospect was growing everyday the Heat stood silent that Wade would end up going north to be with his kids in the Windy City. To make matters worse, Beasley was traded to Minnesota, and the roster was stripped of almost every player, making a non-competitive team even less so.

         Stealing the headlines from anything Heat fans were going through at the time was what was happening in Cleveland. LeBron James was tired of waiting. The efforts to bring in Shaq and Antwan Jamison failed to take the Cavs over the hump, and it was clear that they needed to make a big move in order to keep King James near his hometown. The problem was, nobody wanted to go near his hometown. Amare Stoudamire didn’t want to go to Cleveland. Chris Bosh didn’t want to go to Cleveland. In fact, none of the big names wanted to go to Cleveland. As it became obvious that nobody was going to Ohio to help LeBron, the realization started to sink in. LeBron had to leave to get help. A national outcry began for a city plagued with losing teams that was getting ready to lose a homegrown talent that was the best in his sport. Lost in the shuffle, was any empathy for another city getting ready to lose its most beloved superstar. Unlike the outcry for James to stay in Cleveland, the nation was looking forward to seeing Dwyane Wade playing side-by-side Derrick Rose in a Bulls uniform. Nobody had a tear of compassion for the Magic City.

         Then came the key domino that changed everything. Pat Riley had signed Chris Bosh. While it seemed innocuous to most, I was telling everybody, the King is coming to South Florida. Of course, most people thought he was going to New York, or Chicago, or taking the multitude of other offers. For a while as a longtime Heat fan myself, I was forced to play the role of the rabidly insane homer in order to say what I thought was the overwhelming likelihood. How did I know based on the Bosh signing alone? Once Bosh signed in Miami, it was clear Dwyane Wade was going to finally resign. With the Heat having dumped an entire roster’s worth of salary, and two major superstar already playing in Miami, if Lebron wanted the surest shot at a title there was no way he could risk allowing Pat Riley to use the rest of his cash to put a team around them that could lock him out of a title again no matter where he went. They had the money, they had the superstars, and either Riley was going to spend that cash on James, or he would spend that cash on a supporting cast that could stop him. There was no collusion involved, no under the table talks necessary. There was simply no other choice LeBron could make that had a higher probability of success once those two guys were together on a team with that much cash left to spend. It was either join them, or take the chance of getting beat by them. He simply couldn’t take the chance. It was really that simple and obvious for me. While opting against simply making the announcement on his website as he previously planned, he took ESPN up on their less well thought out plan to announce it on national television. Thus, the decision was born. It was a good decision, announced by a really, really bad one.

         In what was supposed to be a very normal and ordinarily predictable practice for the Heat marketing team, a pep rally was scheduled to announce the formation of the historically formed team that was a good two to three years in the making. The city rejoiced. Their beloved superstar had stayed after years of threatening to leave, and offseason events that made it an incredibly likely scenario. They had obtained a great all-star caliber big man alongside him in Chris Bosh, and most of all, the King was coming. In a city like Miami, it was inevitable you would see the party of all parties celebrating this. Unfortunately, what was supposed to be a local event was also broadcast on the national media. With multiple cities scorned having missed the prospect of obtaining the best player in basketball, the media saw the perfect reason to create a villain, and a pep rally that was supposed to let the steam out of years of panic and worry, turned into a rub-it-in-your-face festival overnight.

         The newly formed big three did something that, had it not been for the disdain involved in everything, should have been widely applauded. They did the rare professional sports act of taking less money in order to win a title. This was wasted on the public’s perception of the Heat becoming the NBA’s bad guys. The following season that brought enormous amounts of pressure like the sports world had never seen, and in the face of another disappearing act by LBJ in the finals, as well as a Dallas Mavericks team I had unwittingly speculated earlier in the season was the deepest team in the league, the Mavs defeated the Heat in one of the sweetest revenges I had ever seen in modern sports. They had finally gotten them back for their incredible collapse at the hands of Dwyane Wade and Shaq in 2006 to win their first title. That offseason, the critics went to town on the franchise, and Lebron took as big a mass media beating one could ever take. The city of Miami got caught in the crossfire as again, little sympathy was shown and the city was vilified alongside him.

         With another offseason to round out the kinks, Riley turned his attention to the bench and solidified the rest of the team a bit. With a healthy Mike Miller returning, the drafting of Norris Cole, and the acquisition of Shane Battier, Miami was much more ready to be title bound, and that’s exactly what they were. Though people doubted their ability to win without an established and proven center, the smarts of Erik Spoelstra and the versatility of their players helped them defy the odds. They proved they could play shut down perimeter defense against Carmelo Anthony and the Knicks in a series that saw Amare Stoudamire and Jeremy Lin on milk cartons. They proved they could beat a big physical team with greats bigs and lots of depth like the Pacers, They proved they could handle a team with a great point guard and lots of big men like the Celtics, and reinforced their ability to stop a team with an intimidating frontcourt and big time superstars in the Oklahoma City Thunder en route to LeBron James & Chris Bosh’s first NBA titles, and it was additions like Mike Miller and Shane Battier who made all the difference in the end. They answered every question they could possibly answer. If you can’t respect what Heat fans had to go through to get here, and what the players had to do to earn that title, what in the world of sports could you possibly respect?

FIFA Ballon d'or

As we come to the close of year 5 of the Messi/ Cristiano Ronaldo debate I figured I’d throw in my 2 cents.  Not to try to determine who is better, you can debate that until the cows come home, but more as a reminder of how ridiculously lucky we are to have both of these brilliant players at the height of their abilities at the same time.  And I don’t mean brilliant in the British way as in “wow, that gravy is brilliant”, I mean brilliant as in, they are doing things that I have not seen before and will only see again in half-as-good copy cat ways.

The Ballon d’or is very rarely a contest.  The very fact that it is decided upon by journalists makes it suspect to serious questioning, but for the sake of argument let’s forget that.  Instead, let’s look at who has won the award that could be considered as good as these two and then let’s look at their competition that year.  Keep in mind a couple of things:  1.The Ballon d’or used to be only available to players playing in Europe, since 2010 it’s been combined with a FIFA award so it can now go to anyone playing anywhere in the world.  2.  The award almost never goes to a defensive player much less a goal keeper.  Lev Yashin is the only keeper to ever bring the award home.  3.  If you are the best offensive player on the team that wins the European cup/Champions league, you are a shoe in regardless of what other players may have accomplished.

If you don't know about Lev Yashin you seriously need to look him up.

Of the players who have won the award since the inception of the Champions League I would consider Ronaldinho, Zidane, Ronaldo, and Van Basten at the same level as Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.

Let’s start with Marco Van Basten, one of the few players to ever win this award three times and, many would argue, if it hadn’t been for injury one of the best players to ever play the game.  In 1992 he led Milan to their first Serie A title in four years which would allow them to qualify for the Champions League (remember when only champions got to participate in it?).  He then fought an ankle injury for 2 years but ended up retiring when he couldn’t overcome it.

His main competition in 1992 was Hristo Stoichkov the Bulgarian who would eventually win the trophy in 1994.  But Stoichkov had good seasons here and there, not a sustained career where he was always good like Van Basten.  He also had the misfortune of playing for Bulgaria so his national career would never leave the ground.

Other notable players that year:  Dennis Bergkamp, also from the Netherlands, Tomas Hassler, Peter Schmeichel and the Laudrup brothers.  All of these players are fantastic, but not as good as Van Basten, Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo.

Next on the list is Ronaldo Luiz Nazario de Lima, otherwise known as the fat Ronaldo.  His story is fairly similar to Van Basten’s in that he dominated when he was young but his memory will be tarnished by debilitating injuries.  From 1994-96 he ripped up the Eredivisie and suffered his first bad injury (half of a season), he was then bought by Barcelona and had one of those seasons (1996-97) that you should tell your grandkids about.  He then moved to Inter Milan where he spent one and a half years making defenders look silly and about three years injured.  During this spell he won the Ballon d’or (1997) and came in second by a single point in 1996, losing to Matthias Sammer who had the benefit of playing for Germany who had won the 1996 Euro.

You remember Matthias Sammer right...right.

Zinedine Zidane won the award in 1998 while playing with Juventus.  As a midfielder he scored remarkably few goals but had technical ability that few people can match.  He was aided by France winning the World Cup in 1998 but never pleased the journalists enough to win it again.

After recovering from his injury (and winning the world cup for Brazil) Ronaldo moved to Real Madrid where he would team up with Ballon d’or rivals Roberto Carlos and Zidane.  The most interesting part of his career in the Ballon d’or is how he and Zidane only had one season where they both could have won it.  In 2002 Ronaldo led Brazil to World Cup glory and then had a remarkable season for Madrid so he won the award, Zidane also had a remarkable season for Madrid but was injured for most of the World Cup which prevented him from getting votes he otherwise would have.  Again, one of the few situations where there was a legitimate competition between two great players.

His hair had nothing to do the winning.

Ronaldinho simply had no peers during a two year stint at the top during 2005 and 2006.  His ball control was almost unparalleled during this time and he was able to use it to take over games and show us things not seen before.  Unfortunately no one else could really compete with him during this time.  Thierry Henry and Andriy Shevchenko are the two players that got closest to him during that time but neither of them will be spoken of in the same breath as the other greats that we’re talking about here.

So I guess that’s my point here.  Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo are amazing players, better than Stoichkov, better than Kaka, better than Deco, Baggio, Sammer or Figo.  And they’ve both been doing it for five years now.  They rarely get injured, are always battling for trophies and each have their staunch defenders who stand up and say they’re the best.

What might be the strangest part is that they could still do this for another 3-4 years barring injury.  Cristiano Ronaldo is 27, Messi 25 and to tell you the truth I don’t see another up and coming player of their caliber.

Do you?