Milan vs. Barcelona: Fluke?

This had 3-0 Barcelona written all over it.  Barça are in-form, uninjured (with the exception of David Villa who's been in and out all season), they have La Liga all but wrapped up, and are by far the favorites for the Champions league this season. Not to mention their side boasts more “world class” players than then any team in the world, save Real Madrid arguably. Milan are without their only two really world renown players in Balotelli and de Jong (Robinho doesn't count), they haven’t exactly sparkled in Serie A this season, and seem to be in a rebuilding phase both on and off the pitch.

So how did Milan beat the best team in the world when they were clear underdogs? First and foremost, luck.  They got a lucky no-call that led to a goal and loose balls seemed to go their way. But that wasn’t everything. Milan applied high pressure all night, and for once Barcelona couldn’t handle it. When Barça settled down, which they always do as they’re not a run and gun style team, their back four were pressured which they can usually handle.  Their problems seemed to occur when they got to the midfield, usually their strong suit. But Milan gave them no space. Xavi, Iniesta, Busquets, even Messi when he dropped back couldn’t even turn without 1 or 2 fleet footed Italians covering them.  And the Italians did what Italians do, they won the tackles. One shot on goal tells you how bad of a night Barça had, you could even say the score could have been 3 or 4 – 0 if El Shaarawy hadn’t made a number of rookie-style mistakes. It’s like Barcelona didn’t know what to do if someone actually treated them like equals.

Stephan El Shaarawy, while performing well in
Serie A this year, did in fact resemble
Titus Bramble against Barcelona.

I don’t consider this Milan squad to be particularly dangerous besides Kevin Prince Boateng being leagues better than I thought he was when I first saw him at Portsmouth.  But there is something to be said for sleeping giants and “Big” clubs that aren’t “Big” at the time.  Liverpool are pretty terrible right now but no one would really be that surprised if they had pulled it out and won the UEFA cup this year, and I guess the same goes for Milan.  They certainly aren’t favorites for the Champions League but you can’t deny history, and you can’t forget how they finished in 2007 when they won it last (4th in the league).

As for beating Barcelona, Inter Milan did it in 2010. They won at the San Siro and held Barcelona at the Nou Camp in a defensive display that few could forget if not for Jose Mourinho’s celebration after the game then perhaps for Sergio Busquets' acting skills. Chelsea did it last year by barely squeaking by after John Terry got a red card for a bizarre off-the-ball incident. In short, it is possible and if anyone’s going to do it it’s Milan.

Shame.

So was this a fluke? Should Allegri suddenly be considered a tactical genius? Has tiki-taka been found out? At the end of the day no one would really be surprised if Barcelona scored 3 or 4 on the return leg. But even though Milan only had 34% of the possession and everyone knows that Barcelona is the better team, something in the Milanese men made Barcelona look like boys.  Maybe it was Philip Mexès jumping well over Pedro to win a defensive header late in the game, or the way that Barcelona seemed to always have a player grabbing their head or ankle in agony that made them seem sort of silly. Or maybe it was just blind luck and good defending that won the game, but every good team and dynasty comes to an end, and 3-4 years seems to be the limit. If this is goodbye Miss Tiki-Taka, know that you are one of the best.

Leave it to the Italians to stifle an attacking side.

Champions League II

These are the Champions Part II

 

 

Second Eight

 

 

            For those of you that watched the first round of games, I hope you enjoyed them.  I was pretty far off with my first round of predictions, at least outside of picking the Real Madrid and Manchester United score correctly.  The tricky game was always going to be Juventus and Celtic, and now I believe that Juventus definitely have the horses to win the whole thing.  These next round of games should be just as exciting, and the tie of the round could be Arsenal hosting Bayern Munich.  Arsenal is at the point where anything less than a victory and the wheels may begin to come off.  Enjoy the next 4 games!

 

Arsenal v Bayern Munich

            So Far: Arsenal probably got a little more than they bargained for in coming second out of group B.  They probably should have lost to Schalke twice, and although unlucky, they also were defeated on their trip to Greece.  Podolski did score 3 goals in the group stages, while Gervinho also had 2, which is one less than he has scored in the Premier League all year.  They are going to have to find their goals from somewhere, because Bayern has plenty of fire power.  Bayern had a relatively easy time in Group F, winning the group while scoring 11 goals in their final three games.  The difficult part to defending Bayern is they got goals from 9 different players, and they have plenty of versatility in both the midfield and attack which makes them very hard to plan for.  They played their group matches in a 4-5-1, 4-2-2-2, 4-3-2-1 and a 4-4-2.  Lahm is such a talented fullback that at times it seemed they had a 6^th in midfield. 

            Up Next: To put it kindly, Arsenal are going to have a very difficult time winning this draw.  They have probably hit their worst form of the season in the past six weeks, and even their two most recent victories were 1-0 wins over teams closer to the bottom of the table.  Bayern is going in the other direction.  Their league form this season has been nothing short of sensational, and they probably already have the Bundesliga wrapped up.  Their main goal this season is to win the Champions League after finishing runner-up in 2010 and 2012.  They are also in a small state of transition, as Pep Guardiola will be taking over the squad next year.  I don’t think it will be a distraction, but some players may have to recognize that their time is growing short.  I see them playing to score an away goal or two, and then really taking it to Arsenal at the Allianz.  Arsenal should come out in a flat 4-4-2 to try and keep possession at home, but I bet Wenger plays a 4-3-3, and attempts to counter Bayern’s superior possession skills. 

            Arsenal Player to Watch: CF Lukas Podolski.  He gets to face the club in which he suffered the greatest during his stellar career.  A big chance to take revenge.

            Bayern Player to Watch: RB Philip Lahm.  I mentioned him, you may as well watch.  Outstanding when he pushes forward.

            Prediction: 2-2, 3-1. Bayern wins on aggregate, 5-3.

Porto v Malaga

            So Far: Porto was very strong in the group stages, only losing to PSG in the final matchday of the group.  Both teams had already advanced by that point, so I’m curious as to how much effort Porto had put into that match. Outside of Madrid, they were probably the team that no group winner wanted to see.  They have now had over a decade of success at this level, dating back to winning it all back in 2004.  They continue to lose top players year after year, and even though they’ve lost Falcao and Hulk over the last two seasons, they haven’t missed a beat.  They got a large number of goals in Europe from their midfield, and it probably is the most underrated group of players in Champions League.  Malaga may have been this year’s biggest surprise.  After losing their best player Santi Cazorla to Arsenal a few weeks before the close of the transfer window, due to large debts, a number of experts had written them off to finish third in group C.  No such luck.  They went over 300 minutes before conceding a goal, and won all three of their first games including wins over Zenit and AC Milan.  They finished an impressive +7 and didn’t drop one game in the group stage.  They were sound defensively, and were the closest thing we saw to Barcelona during the round of 32. 

            Up Next: This is a very difficult fixture to predict.  Neither team has played poorly all season, and both squads sincerely believe that they can go far in this tournament.  Porto likes to play a wide game, and very up tempo with lots of passing and movement.  Look for them to play a 4-2-3-1 with James Rodriguez and Varela getting in to the box to support the striker.  I think they will try to finish off the leg at the Estadio Dragao, and should make for an entertaining tie.  Malaga will match up quite differently.  Most of the play comes through the middle, and they like to attack through Isco, their impressive attacking midfielder.  He will try and dictate the play, and Malaga could very well be the team that gives Porto their second home defeat in the history of Champions League knockout play. 

            Porto Player to Watch: LW James Rodriguez.  One of the most exciting up coming talents.  Will be playing for a big club soon.

            Malaga Player to watch: CAM Isco.  See above.

            Prediction: 2-1, 2-0. Malaga wins on aggregate, 3-2.

Galatasaray v FC Schalke

            So Far: “Welcome to Hell”. This is what Schalke gets to look forward to in their first match against Galatasaray.  Gala’s fans really weren’t into it during the group stage as they only had 1 point after the first three matches.  Like a light switch, they turned it on in time to win their final three matches, sign Wesley Snejider and Didier Drogba, and put themselves into a position where they may be called the favorites coming into this match.  No one wants to go to Turkey ever, and Galatasaray do a great job of winning games at home when it counts.  For the history buffs, look back to their run in the 2000 UEFA Cup when they beat Arsenal in the title game.  FC Schalke is beginning to be a fixture in the round of 16.  Many of you may remember their run to the semi-final in 2011, and they have a solid structure and hierarchy inside the club.  They went undefeated in group play, and may have scored one of the more impressive victories in the group stages, when they defeated Arsenal at the Emirates.  They play an attractive style of football, and most of the players have grown up playing together, so there is a lot of familiarity in the squad.  What impresses most about Schalke is that the main core of their players are all still in their early 20’s or even teenagers yet.  A sign of things to come?

            Up Next: I can safely say that both of these teams probably wanted to draw each other.  Other than the talent of Celtic, no team probably has less through their squad than Galatasaray.  At least until January.  With both signings able to play, Galatasaray definitely has the talent in which to win this leg.  They will most likely come out in a defensive 4-4-1-1 and allow Sneijder to push forward and help support Drogba and Sarioglu.  Schalke comes into this matchup with a lot of concerns.  One of their best players, Lewis Holtby decided to leave for Tottenham, which left a big hole in midfield.  They have also recently struggled in the Bundesliga losing two of their last four and drawing Augsburg which I would compare to tying the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Not great form, for a team that had a chance to make a big run.  Their youth is probably their biggest concern, but on their day, they are still a difficult side to contend with and have lots of talent through the ranks.  I expect them to play their rigid 4-4-2 and try to outplay Gala during both of the fixtures.

            Galatasaray Player to Watch: ST Didier Drogba.  We thought he was going to leave like Michael, on top, with the winning kick.  Might be like joining the Wizards.

            Schalke Player to Watch: LM Julian Draxler.  Not even twenty yet, and a catalyst as to why this team is so entertaining.

            Prediction: I have no clue what to expect.  Um… 1-0, 1-0. Aggregate 1-1 and Schalke wins on penalties 5-4.

AC Milan v Barcelona

            So Far: Talk about a team in transition.  AC Milan sold off their two top players at the beginning of the season, and then sold two of their better players in the January transfer window.  They decided to replace all those players with kids from the youth academy, and one Mario Balotelli.  For those of you who know… yep.  I would assume they still want to challenge for trophies, but at this point, I have no idea.  They were lucky to get out of the group stages by gaining 8 points which was one point more than Zenit would get, which shows you how important Milan’s win at Zenit really was.  It was probably one of the best games of the group games, and the only time in which we really saw Milan shine as a team.  Domestically, they aren’t doing much better, and it will be a major upset, if they can take out the mighty Barca.  Speaking of mighty, Barcelona was exactly that during their group stage.  Although Celtic played them extremely tough and even took all 3 points off of them at Celtic Park, Barcelona was the team no one wanted to see.  They are dominating domestically, face no serious injuries, and look like they are hungry for another Champions League title. 

            Up Next: Milan is large only in history.  This looks to be one of the bigger mismatches of the knockout round of 16.  Milan does have talent in their midfield, and Prince Boateng has been in good form for most of the season.  Yet, Balotelli is cup-tied for this tournament, and won’t be able to provide ‘inspiration’ to the Italian masses.  This is no knock against El Shaarawy, Bojan and Pazzini who I believe are very good players, but probably won’t be able to penetrate the Barcelona defense.  However, even though Milan has only kept two clean sheets since their defeat of Juventus back in November, they have been playing better and could maintain Barcelona for 90 minutes.  Maybe.  Barcelona on the other hand just continues to thrive due to the hot feet of Lionel Messi and I expect them to attempt more of the same in this leg.  For all of their success, they are quite the easy team to predict when it comes to pre-match formations and line-ups.  We will see them in their Barca 4-3-3 with Fabregas helping Pedro and Messi inside the box, and both Xavi and Iniesta bossing the midfield.  Just because Milan knows what’s coming though doesn’t mean they will stop it.

            Milan Player to Watch: ST Bojan Krkic. Facing his former club, he should be motivated knowing that his spot was given to Pedro.  But does he get the start?

            Barcelona Player to Watch: CF Messi.  Why not? I can’t wait to see what he does next.

            Prediction: 1-2, 4-1. Barcelona wins on aggregate 6-2. 

Champions League

These are the Champions

First Eight

 

            Better than March Madness?  It’s pretty close.  Besides the Super Bowl and the final day of the Barclays Premier League, this is probably my favorite time of any competition.  The 16 best football clubs in Europe (more often than not), come together for a few months to determine which club can be considered the best in the world.  This year is no different.  We are missing a couple big sides compared to most seasons as Inter Milan never made it to the party, and both Chelsea and Manchester City couldn’t get out of relatively difficult group draws.  We are left with a couple of upstart sides including: Malaga, Shakhtar Donetsk, Celtic and Borussia Dortmund.  None of these clubs would be considered favorites in years past, now any of them could make it through to the semi-finals.  The following is a little synopsis of each club that play during the next week, and my predictions for their matches in the 2013 Champions League final 16. (I will follow up with the other four contests next week).

Celtic v Juventus

So Far: As much as I love Celtic’s story in this year’s competition, Juventus is almost a surefire bet to get through to the quarterfinals.  Celtic finished in second place in group G, and beat two pretty good sides (Benfica, Spartak Moscow) to get to this point.  They were able to defeat the mighty Barcelona at home, and they will be tough for any side to take three points from while on their travels.  The one reason that I can’t pick Celtic to get through to the next round though is because Juventus just will not lose.  They went undefeated last season in the Serie A, and have only lost once so far this year in the competition.  They also played some pretty impressive football in Champions League so far, having come down from 2 goals to tie Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, and they smoked Chelsea 3-0 at the new Juventus Stadium. 

            Up Next: I think this is definitely Juventus’ tie to lose.  They play the perfect style of football to defeat a team similar to Celtic’s style.  Look for them to play with two deep midfielders, and control the tempo of the games, forcing Celtic to come out and attack.  Not that Celtic isn’t capable, but the threat of Vucinic, Matri and Vidal on the counter is scary for them to consider.  They’ll be better off sitting back and waiting for Juventus to push forward.  I doubt that they have the patience.

Celtic player to watch: GK Fraser Forster.  Was magnificent against Barcelona.

Juventus player to watch: CM Andrea Pirlo.  At times, he controls games like Xavi or Iniesta.

Prediction: 1-1, 3-0.  Juventus on 4-1 aggregate.

Valencia v PSG

            So Far: PSG’s millions have finally gotten them to this point.  They did well to get to this point; winning a difficult group that also had experienced FC Porto in it.  Their only dropped points were on the trip to Porto, which is a very difficult place to play.  Otherwise they cruised through the group outscoring opponents 14-2.  Their attacking play with Ibrahimovic and Lavezzi scoring goals was extremely difficult to stop.  Valencia had a very similar experience.  With the exception of their loss and draw to Bayern Munich, they won every other group game.  Their three-pronged attack of Feghouli, Soldado and Jonas scored 11 of their 12 goals, and they were brilliant at home. 

            Up Next: Contrary to popular thought, I think this is a very difficult match up to predict.  Many believe that PSG is going to run away in this contest, but Valencia is much underrated as a team, they have played the big teams this season tough, and have a great team chemistry.  They don’t have to count on goals from one individual up front, and have about seven bench players that can all provide a spark if one is needed.  However, what PSG has done in a short time is quite remarkable.  As recent as three seasons ago, they weren’t playing in Europe.  Now they have a shot at the title.  I think PSG will play defensive in the first leg, and try and keep the score around 1-1 or snatch a 1-0 away victory.  I don’t even think they’d be that disappointed with an away defeat, granted they would probably need an away goal or two to be really comfortable.  I think Valencia goes for it in the first leg, and this has the chance to be a memorable pair of matches. 

Valencia Player to Watch: CAM Sofiane Feghouli.  Well on his way to being a world class player. 

PSG Player to Watch: CAM Lucas Moura.  I’m curious to see if he was worth the 45 million euros.

Prediction: 2-1, 2-1. 3-3 aggregate and Valencia wins on Penalties.

Shakhtar Donetsk v Borussia Dortmund

            So Far: Shakhtar did just enough to get out of one of the most difficult groups.  They were able to defeat Chelsea at home, and take 6 points off of Nordsjælland. Getting another point away to Juventus was exactly what they needed to finish second in the group and get to this stage.  They played entertaining football, and were explosive at home minus the final game in which things were already wrapped up.  Borussia Dortmund did everything that Shakhtar did, but better.  They won what many considered to be the most difficult group, and they did it with relative ease.  They were brilliant at home, and good enough on the road.  They could’ve scored 5 when they played at the Etihad. 

            Up Next: Part of me thinks that the chairman of Shakhtar is smoking crack.  Two weeks ago, they sold their best player, Willian, to Anzhi in Russia for a nice fee, but nothing astronomical.  I don’t think Shakhtar had the horses to win this entire tournament, but they were talented enough to pull an upset or two.  For as good as Dortmund was, we still don’t know exactly what we are going to get from them.  They were miserable in their warm up game prior to this one, and lost 4-1 at home to Hamburg.  They are very finesse, so if they get bruised and battered, you can take them out of their game.  Lucky that Shakhtar also plays attractive football then.  I see Dortmund trying to win the first leg, and even if they don’t, they should have enough in the tank to get through one round.

Shakhtar Player to Watch: LB Razvan Rat. Likely the most underrated left defender in Europe.

Dortmund Player to Watch: CM Sebastian Kehl. Quietly had a very nice career.  One final chance to shine. 

Prediction: 1-2, 2-0. Dortmund wins 4-1 on aggregate.

Real Madrid v Manchester United

          So Far: Real Madrid struggled a little bit in their group, but they did play against some tough opponents.  For whatever reason, it seems like Madrid lacks a little bit of motivation this season to really play at the highest level.  They came back from being down vs City at home to pull out that famous 3-2 victory, but struggled against Dortmund both in Germany and in Spain, but beat Ajax convincingly on an 8-2 aggregate.  Manchester United had what many consider to be the easiest draw of the eight groups, and cruised ahead to four straight victories to lock up the top spot.  They lost their final two games of the group, and never really hit top gear in any of the six games. 

            Up Next:  Obviously the most mouth-watering draw of the round of 16 in Champions League.  Between the two clubs they own 12 European titles, and a total of 17 appearances in the final.  There are many interesting stories to follow including the return of Cristiano Ronaldo to Manchester for the first time since his departure.  I think both managers will be cautious in Spain, but will play all their horses with the hope that one of them inspires a moment of brilliance to give their team the victory.  In Manchester, it could be quite different, especially if there are goals scored in the first leg.  Look for Jose Mourinho to play a 4-5-1 at home with Ronaldo and Di Maria playing deeper, and then a more attacking 4-3-3 at Old Trafford. 

Madrid Player to Watch: CF Cristiano Ronaldo.  An obvious choice.  A huge moment in his career.

United Player to Watch: ST Robin Van Persie. This opportunity is why he chose Man Utd. 

Prediction: 1-1, 2-1. Manchester United wins 3-2 on aggregate.

 

Super Bowl XLVII

For the first time in my years and years of predicting the Super Bowl players, I finally got the participants correct.  The story lines changed along the way, but I really felt like these were the two most complete teams and I still believe that the 49ers are the most talented team in the NFL.  Case in point – Alex Smith is probably the best back-up quarterback in the league, their stable of running backs run deep, and they lost Mario Manningham for the season which didn’t affect their winning ways in the least.  Their defense has multiple All-pros, and they may just be entering their peak years.  Baltimore also played into my thoughts back in August.  After losing out to the Patriots last year, I think a lot of their players felt like the window was going to slam shut if they didn’t make it to the Super Bowl this season.  They had a nice run; five consecutive playoff appearances including three AFC championship appearances as well.  Sending Billy Cundiff on his merry way was probably the right thing to do, and the Ravens probably have more team leaders than any other team in the NFL.  Just through inspiration alone, this team can look to Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis, Ray Rice, and John Harbaugh for guidance.  Torrey Smith had to do a lot of growing up as well during the season.  For the Ravens, it’s like getting dealt a pair of aces, and then seeing two aces appear on the flop.  They went all in this season.

So what are my thoughts on the winner and loser for Super Bowl XLVII?  I am still struggling to make that decision.  I actually feel like the outcome will be decided quite easily.  Both of these teams are almost mirror images of one another, and that starts with their coaching.  Neither team relinquishes leads.  They both love the big play.  They both use the run to set up their pass.  And they are both nasty on defense.  With all that in mind, I believe the team that inherits a double-digit lead first will end up winning the game.  Possibly even comfortably.  Forcing either team to become one-dimensional (passing) does not bode well for their success, and the opposite defense will have plenty of opportunities to generate turnovers.  Taking all of this into consideration, let’s take a closer look at both squads, and then I will make my final selection of the 2012 season.

Baltimore:  There are no super stars on this offense, but I believe that works into their favor.  Every single player on their offense contributes to the main cause, and they don’t really have a weakness on that side of the ball.  They have speed and size at wide receiver, they have running and blocking ability from Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce.  While Joe Flacco isn’t the greatest intermediate thrower, he does have a delicious deep ball.  The offensive line is more than adequate.  Justin Tucker has a career accuracy of plus 90%.  They won’t score forty, but in a close game will be really hard to beat.

The defense is a different story.  They have great parts, but the individuals are likely better than the whole.  During the middle of the year, they were statistically one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  Their reputation for always being among the league’s best is all but finished.  However, they haven’t suffered any serious injuries since they lost Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis earlier in the year, and both players are in top form. (Must be the deer spray) They are a confident bunch, and just knocked out Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in consecutive weeks from the playoffs.  I think Kaepernick is of a different breed, but Baltimore will have no fear of facing him.  Their weakness still probably lies in the secondary, but take chances at your own risk.  I think that teams get over excited to throw against the Ravens (Peyton in overtime), and Ed Reed can still make magic.

San Francisco: This offense has gone under a reconstruction since the beginning of the season.  To get to the Super Bowl, we used to think that Frank Gore would carry the ball 25 times a game, and then Alex Smith would make just enough plays for the defense to get them the victory.  Now the offense revolves around Kaepernick and his relationship with his wide receivers.  Michael Crabtree may have finally made it into the top echelon of NFL receivers.  He is a tough match-up for anyone, and handled Tramon Williams and Asante Samuel without any issues.  Vernon Davis has been relatively quiet, but can explode at any time.  Randy Moss is the greatest wide receiver in NFL history.  (Just ask him).  Joking aside, look for the 49ers to try and take what Baltimore gives them, sandwiching a few big throws and read-option runs to keep the defense guessing.

The defense may be the most talented in the league.  They have three (3!) all-pro linebackers!  Navorro Bowman, Pat Willis and Aldon Smith could all be heading to Canton if they continue to up tick in their individual success. Ahmad Brooks is more than adequate at the strong side linebacker position. They have one of the best defensive lineman in football in Justin Smith who opens up lanes for the four linebackers.  Isaac Sopoaga may be one of the most underrated tackles in the NFL, and has made many a big play during the playoffs.  I am also a huge fan of their secondary that goes six deep.  They can match up with most any team’s personnel and between the Packers and Falcons saw over 20 different offensive packages.  For as good as they are though, they are still young, and have been prone to bouts of inconsistency during the year.

Final Prediction:  This just seems to be the Ravens year.  The 49ers may be the 3rd most offensively talented team that the Ravens have seen during the playoffs, and came in no hotter than either the Broncos or the Patriots.  Jim is probably the better motivator, but John has created a team with fantastic personalities and a will to win that I haven’t seen since the Cowboys of the early 90’s and John Elway during his late run.  They had an ordinary regular season, but I think that they always knew that if they made the playoffs, they had a chance to win the whole thing.  Players got to rest, other players got to develop, and as a result, the Ravens have quite the complete team.  Their destiny is the trophy.

Ravens 24 
49ers 16

The Championship Games

NFL Championship Games

 

            This is the weekend where most NFL fans’ psyche proceed to forget which teams made it this far during the season.  I have little trouble naming the winner and loser of every Super Bowl since 1967, but what I can’t do is name the teams that made it to their conference’s championship games.  There are a few that make it in the minds of NFL fans, namely the 1998 Minnesota Vikings and the four NFC championship games that the Eagles couldn’t get past in the Andy Reid era.  Today, legacies will be made, past mistakes forgotten, and new memories created.  Enjoy the games everyone!

 

GM 1: San Francisco vs Atlanta

            Most of the sporting world is betting against the Atlanta Falcons this afternoon.  They have a hard time getting past this point, and Matt Ryan has yet to be known as a “playoff quarterback”.  San Francisco has hit their high point, their confidence is running high, and the quarterback switch back in November has worked out beautifully for them.  Both teams do have a couple of ghosts to think about today, and the 49ers really should’ve been in the super bowl last season.  Today, I think both teams want to slow down the tempo in order to keep the other offense off the field.  I believe both teams think that the other teams quarterback is the reason they have been successful up to this point.  Look for both teams to attempt power running games early, and then set up play action and try to take some shots downfield.  I am going to agree with the majority of NFL experts and those casual as well, and pick the 49ers.  Aldon Smith and Justin Smith will make it difficult for Matty Ryan.

 

49ers by 7

 

GM 2:  Baltimore vs New England

            A back story in this matchup as well.  Going back to last year, the Patriots probably were outplayed on their home field, but were able to have a date in the Super Bowl thanks to the slippery hands of Lee Evans, and the nerves of Billy Cundiff.  New England is always a difficult place to play, but Baltimore does have a bit of success here.  I also think that Tom Brady would’ve preferred to say Peyton and the Broncos, than Joe and the Ravens.  Although the Ravens appear to be emotionally spent after last week’s overtime victory, John Harbaugh will probably have an efficient game plan, and the team ready to go this Sunday.  As opposed to the NFC matchup, where I believe the game will be won on the field, I think this game will be decided by the coaches and who has the better game plan.  It’s extremely difficult to bet against Bill Belicheck in this situation, but I do think that the firing of their offensive coordinator and the opening up of the playbook since then plays into the Ravens hands.  Harbaugh gets to see his brother, and for the first time in my life, I will have predicted the super bowl matchup prior to the start of the season.  Maybe the reason for my pick?

Ravens by 3

NFL True MVP's

The Most Valuable Player award is often given to the most outstanding player that season, or who is considered to have had the best season. However, many of us know that it doesn’t always equate to the player who is the most valuable to their team. This is what I call the TMVP, or the Truly Most Valuable Player award. So what’s the difference? This award goes to the player who is most indispensible to his team. To the player who’s team would absolutely collapse and crumble without him more so than any other player out there. Without further addition, here are my contenders for the prestigious TMVP award.

4^th Runner-up: Tom Brady

Photo courtesy of The Brit_2

Normally you’d have to put Tom Brady higher on this list, because as far as anybody knows this team could fall back into decades of mediocrity without him at the reigns. That’s just it though, nobody really knows. Ever since “The Golden Boy” took over for an injured Drew Bledsoe nobody has ever known this team as anything but one of the biggest threats in the NFL. However, Brady has a lot more help now than he did in those early Super Bowl runs. The defense is better, the receivers are better, the running backs are better, the tight ends are better, the whole team is better. Even given that, you can’t say for certain this is more than a 6-win team without Brady on it, it’s simply something we haven’t seen. Given what he accomplished with virtually nothing in the past though, it’s hard to really definitively say how much more than nothing he has right now. There are just too many players who look drastically better with Tom Brady on their team to not have him on this list.

3^rd Runner-up: Aaron Rodgers

Photo courtesy of Mike Morbeck

There’s no question Aaron Rodgers is the spark plug that makes the Packers go, and where would they be without him? Does anybody have any faith in Graham Harrell taking this same team anywhere? While we’ve seen formerly pro-bowl passing options like Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and Jermichael Finley fall to the wayside, it hasn’t stopped Rodgers from being one of the best of the best. That’s impressive, given it’s a status he managed to maintain by relying more on simply serviceable players like Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Randall Cobb. He even mixed a little Tom Crabtree in there. All on a team has barely been able to run the ball the past few years. Make no mistake about it, without Rodgers manning the helm, all would be lost in Lambeau, and little could be done about it.

2^nd Runner-up: Drew Brees

Photo courtesy of IAN RANSLEY DESIGN + ILLUSTRATION

Sure, maybe the New Orleans Saints didn’t have the best season in the world, probably impacted by the whole “bounty-gate” scandal that was there, then kinda-sorta there, then not so much there anymore. Yeah, there’s no question with guys like Sproles, Colston, Jahri Evans, and super-stud Jimmy Graham there is certainly some talent on this team, but no Drew Brees would put this team in the basement the moment he stepped off the field. Forget about statistical leader, Drew Brees is the emotional leader of this team, and while going 7-9 is nothing to brag to anybody about, it is still an impressive feat if you take into consideration that the Saints gave up more points per game than the Raiders, Eagles, and Jaguars. What do you expect to happen if you have to put up 35 points every week to guarantee yourself a victory? Now imagine trying to do that without Drew Brees. Exactly.

1^st Runner-up: Adrian Peterson

Photo courtesy of Mike Morbeck

Take a team with a bad quarterback. Add to that, really bad wide receivers. Now remove the one good wide receiver on the team.  Mix in a bad offensive line. Stir. This should be a recipe for complete and utter disaster. Instead, over 2,000 yards later your running back who was returning from reconstructive knee surgery is dragging a team that should have been fighting for the first pick in the NFL draft into the playoffs. Somebody made the argument that you could have easily put Jared Allen on this list, and the same notion would hold true, the Minnesota Vikings would have completely collapsed. That said, it doesn’t make it any less true that Adrian Peterson was the closest thing you could find to a one-man team that wasn’t a signal caller. Nobody should have been able to do what he did coming back from that injury, nobody should have been able to do what he did even if they weren’t coming back off of injury. Most astoundingly, no one player should have been able to be added to this team and push them into a playoff birth. It should be obvious to everybody now that in Adrian Peterson’s world, you’re capable of doing what shouldn’t be possible. Peterson is the definition of a truly irreplaceable commodity in this league. It’s only a miracle that this guy doesn’t win this award, and in many ways you could argue he could have.

Winner: Andrew Luck

Photo courtesy of NFLfan18

That’s right, a rookie. Maybe not what you were expecting to see, but if you think about it the proof is already there. Now I know, I know, the guy tied Mark Sanchez for second most interceptions thrown this year, and had a worse completion percentage than Sanchez which ranked near the bottom of the league. He was 26^th in the league with a 76.5 passer rating. This all means nothing in the grand scheme of things. What made Luck a great stand out player are the intangibles. This is not a dink-and-dunk passer. The Colts had no running game to speak of and his offensive line was horrendous all year long, but he still managed to throw for over 4,000 yards. He was so clutch this year you almost wonder if he didn’t steal it from Eli Manning before the season started (at least that would explain what happened to Manning). He completed a ridiculous 83.9% of his passes on first down, but also touted an impressive 37.6% conversion rate on third downs, virtually unparalleled for a rookie quarterback. Again, the interceptions and low completion rate can be contributed primarily (outside of not having an offensive line or a running game) to one major factor: the guy is not a dink-and-dunk passer. Luck throws the ball as a quarterback was originally meant to, downfield, with remarkable consistency. It didn’t help him that his receivers seemed to drop as many passes as you could without looking like you don’t belong in the NFL. He was great at causing defenses to create their own penalties with hard counts (that intangibles thing again). If none of these stats convince you that he’s deserving of this award I have one final stat for you. Without Andrew Luck the Colts went 2-14. With Andrew Luck the Colts went 11-5, losing in the playoffs to a Ravens team who are now in the AFC Championship game. I rest my case.

Divisional Playoff Predictions

Looks like I’m finally getting better at this.  From going 1-3 in the 2012 wild-card NFL playoffs, to getting all 4 correct last week, it now appears that I might know something about the game of football.  Either that or the picks were really easy.  Regardless, this is my favorite week of the NFL season.  More often than not, it’s the eight teams most deserving of playing for the super bowl.  I am still shocked that the New York Giants are no longer with us this season, but outside of that, I believe we will see the best the NFL has to offer.

GM 1: Baltimore vs. Denver.  

It’s amazing how much of a difference one year makes.  Last year we thought that the Denver Broncos were riding the Tim Tebow wave, and it was his magic that pushed the Denver Broncos into the divisional round of the playoffs.  Now we know better.  This is one of the most balanced teams in football, and they enter the playoffs without being vulnerable at any position, including special teams.  They can beat you with the lead, or playing from behind.  It’s a tough predicament for the Baltimore Ravens.  Based on talent levels this game should be close.  The Ravens have plenty of talent, and can beat any team in the NFL on their day.  If Joe Flacco can keep up with the Broncos (because I believe the Broncos will control the clock today), they have a chance.  It’s small, but a chance none the less.

Broncos by 3

GM 2: Green Bay vs. San Francisco.

The two NFC games are brutal to pick.  The 49ers come into the game being the only team that beat the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau this year.  Green Bay was at full strength, and they were played off the field.  However, the 49ers have been the least predictable team in the NFL since then.  They’ve blown out teams, they’ve been blown out, they won at Foxboro, they tied the Rams.  They should win this game.  They have a pass rush that can get to Aaron Rodgers.  Their pass defense is among the league’s best.  They can control the clock by running with Gore.  Green Bay will need to get into 5 WR formations frequently.  If they can score TD’s instead of field goals, they can easily go into San Francisco and win.  I don’t think it will be easily, but they should get the job done.

Packers by 7

GM 3: Seattle vs. Atlanta

Whoo whee!  This is going to be a doozy.  The NFL’s first half leaders against the second half leaders.  A huge back story with the Atlanta Falcons.  They have been at this point a number of times since they drafted Matt Ryan.  Yet, he has yet to get them past the divisional round.  Even Michael Vick led the Falcons to the NFC Championship game once.  They traded a valuable number of draft choices to bring in Julio Jones, to create even more mismatches.  Then, they draw the Seattle Seahawks, the one team in the league that matches up with Atlanta perfectly.  A soft run defense which is Atlanta's only deficiency, you say?  Seattle will pound them with Marshawn Lynch.  Two fantastic wide receivers?  Best secondary in the NFL.  Great home field advantage down in Atlanta?  Seattle has won at Chicago, at Washington and beat Buffalo by four TD’s on the road since November.  All signs point toward Seattle, so I think I will roll with an upset.

Falcons by 3

GM 4:  Houston vs. New England

It looks to be a gimme game.  The New England Patriots are probably the most difficult match up in football right now, with the running game clicking, the defense creating turnovers, and Tom Brady continuing to be... well... Tom Brady.  The problem for me is, they only beat the Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 just a couple of weekends ago.  That could signify a couple of things.  First, they didn’t really care as they probably knew the most conservative of game plans would get a win.  Second, there are some dents in the armor, and they will be beaten soon.  Third, some Jaguars were playing for their futures in the league.  I think it’s a little bit of all three, but they are going to be really hard to beat.  Lucky for Houston, they have exactly what the doctor ordered.  They can keep Tom Brady off the field with a healthy dose of Arian Foster and Ben Tate.  They also have good news in that every single contributing player will be healthy and ready to go. Their defense played very against the Bengals last week, and kept Dalton from making throws downfield.  Will that be enough?  I think they need a little more.

Patriots by 13