Soccer Season is Near

The season is almost upon us.  Lots of changes have come about since the last few weeks of last season.  None bigger than the retirement of Sir Alex Ferguson from the manager position at Manchester United.  Although I do believe that the success or lack of for David Moyes will be one of the biggest stories of the 2013-14 season, there are three more stories that have sparked my interest that I would like to share thoughts about as we approach the pre-season in European football.  First, I would like to touch on the midfield of Bayern Munich and why they felt the need to improve what was probably already one of the top two or three best midfields in the world.  Second, I want to take a look at the youth movement coming out of AC Milan, which is quite unusual for a club that sees so many player careers push into their mid to late 30’s and still maintain much success.  The final discussion will cover my own reflections and analysis on why it is so difficult to create all-time elevens, or those of just one season.  Let’s welcome in the new season and hopefully we will get a season to remember from all leagues and competitions!

            Most outsiders believed that midfielder Thiago Alcantara would either join Manchester United or stay with Barcelona this summer.  Then at the eleventh hour, (or the first hour, depending on what you believe) Thiago decided to join Bayern Munich.  This is a club that already has close to ten midfielders of top quality, and one would even consider that they have three of the world’s best in Müller, Ribery and Schweinsteiger.  Javi Martinez and Arjen Robben could also be considered in that class, and Mario Götze, Xherdan Shaqiri and Toni Kroos are well on their way to that level.  Luiz Gustavo starts for the Brazilian national team, and David Alaba is more than capable of covering in the midfield.  So why the luxurious buy?  Perhaps, only Pep Guardiola knows the answer to that question.  It is rumored that he is going to introduce the 4-1-4-1 system to Bayern.  This would mean that they would probably line up like this:  Neuer; Lahm, Boateng, Dante, Alaba; Martinez; Ribery, Götze, Schweinsteiger, Müller; Mandzukic.  This would leave a bench with Thiago, Gustavo, Robben and Kroos.  Fully healthy and firing on all cylinders, there are going to be a number of unhappy players within the squad.  Now there are still six weeks remaining in the transfer window, and a number of clubs around the world would surely be happy with an addition of Luiz Gustavo or Xherdan Shaqiri.  If Pep truly knows what’s best, he may loan out one or both of those players.  Shaqiri really is an impressive talent; he demonstrated this while he played regularly with FC Basel.  Time will tell, but I think Pep is going to have a difficult time replicating the success of last year’s team, as well as keeping all of his midfielders happy.  And he still has Robert Lewandowski to consider for!

            AC Milan is introducing a wave of young talent that reminds us of the quality that Manchester United introduced in the 1990’s and that Barcelona introduced in the 2000’s.  It really shouldn’t be a surprise considering the money and prestige that AC Milan possess in the world of football.  Yet, many are shocked about the talent coming through.  For many years, AC Milan has always purchased already proven talent, and developed a system and facility that allowed for those players to succeed late into their careers.  Players like Paolo Maldini, Gennaro Gattuso, Filippo Inzaghi, Clarence Seedorf and many others have benefited from this system, and there was no reason for AC Milan to change.  That is until the Champions League changed from a technical, slow-tempo chess match to the competition it is today with brains, brawn and full-out energy.  Milan had won two titles in the mid 2000’s and also lost a title in 2005.  Yet, over the past couple of seasons, they were getting destroyed by the likes of Manchester United, Tottenham, Barcelona and the like. 

Then, in the last couple of seasons did we start to see a change.  Players like Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Alexandre Pato and Thiago Silva were moved for large fees even though Milan didn’t buy or have already made replacements.  I, for one, was concerned.  I thought it would be the end of the AC Milan as we knew it.  And in a way, I was correct.  There started to be a change in both attacking and defensive mindsets at the club.  They weren’t afraid to send size out onto the pitch even if it sacrificed technical ability.  They started playing 3 up front instead of the former 4-4-1-1.  They introduced younger, more physical players to combat the power of European’s top clubs.  Adding to this, their purchase of Mario Balotelli in the last transfer window, really put Milan in a position to succeed. 

With a team that should be starting El Sharaawy, Niang, Balotelli, Strasser and De Ceglie over the next couple of years, Milan has built a solid foundation on which to work with and a team that can compete with the big, bruising sides of Europe.  I don’t expect them to overtake Juventus in Serie A, or even appear in a Champions League semi-final, but this new ideology of theirs can get them back to the elite class of Europe.

I have spent the last couple of months trying to create an all-time eleven team to satisfy my own needs, and to compare with others.  It seems like something easy to do; you just pick your eleven favorite players at each particular position and then you have yourself a squad.  Except after starting, it hasn’t been very easy at all.  I have had to take a number of things into consideration.  Can I add players that I never saw play?  Can I take players whose careers are just beginning to surface?  Should I consider team chemistry when choosing a team?  Then I got to a point where I couldn’t even whittle the team down to eleven players.  I had about 60 players that I was trying to squeeze into an eleven person squad, maybe eighteen with the addition of subs.  I began to get annoyed.  It wasn’t this hard for basketball (Magic, Michael, LeBron, Bird, Olajuwon).  My baseball line-up has been perfected (Henderson, Mauer, Ripken Jr, Ruth, Mays, Gehrig, Jackie, Morgan).  Even for football it’s pretty dang close (Jerry Rice and all the rest).  Yet, soccer I couldn’t finish it off.  To only be able to choose 2-3 players in an attack when the world allows for Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Ronaldo, Romario, Del Piero, Shearer, Henry, Klose, Batistuta, and Rooney.  This is just from my generation.  There are still plenty of other options in which to choose from.  Midfield?  No chance.  I had to leave Xavi, Kaka, Ballack, Rivaldo, Vieira, Gerrard, Scholes, Lampard Figo, Pirlo and Iniesta off my team just to name a few.  Thank God for the goalkeeper position and the fact that no one will ever touch the gifts of Peter Schmeichel, at least through my eyes.  Then I got to thinking about specific individual seasons, as that tends to be easier.  Not really.  Xavi would probably walk into most elevens as would Messi/CR7.  After that anything goes.  I couldn’t even find room to consider John Terry, who many would name as the greatest Chelsea CB of all-time.  At least I get to wear tinted colored glasses while I participate in this activity.  But for all you soccer fans, I suggest you give it a try.  It’s not as easy as you think.

Schmeichel; R.Carlos, Vidic, Rio, Thuram; Giggs, Keane, Zidane, Overmars; Ronaldo, Van Nistelrooy.  Bench:  Scholes, Rooney, VdS, Maldini, Robben, Desailly, CR7. 

The Final

The Final

                I hope I don’t have to say which final it is that I am discussing as there is only one 'big' game that matters in sports in the month of May.  I am excited to say that this Saturday brings us a European Cup Final that I have personally been waiting for since my exchange experience in Germany back in the 1999-2000 school year.  On exchange, I was sent to Dortmund on my exchange, and my interest in soccer/football went up tenfold.  The fans there are unlike anything I’ve ever experienced, maybe outside of the Dortmund-Galatasaray (gala fans) fixture I went to that season.  It’s usually 75,000 strong, and it’s loud and passionate and just an absolutely fantastic atmosphere.  It was the first time in my life that I recognized that being a fan of your favorite team meant more than the simple pleasure of enjoying the sport.  It was a lifestyle.

                That being said, I can still look at this game from beyond my yellow tinted glasses.  Living in Dortmund it was only natural to dislike Bayern Munich.  For everything that they stood for, and beyond that.  Coming back to the states and not experiencing that disgust on a weekly basis though, I really learned to appreciate how Bayern plays and how they manage and react to organizational success.  They don’t care how fans and the media view their club, and they always do what’s in their clubs own best interests.  They have no concern for the league, or the country, and certainly not the fan base.  For better or worse, it’s what makes them so successful.  And it’s what has put them in this position today; a third Champions League Final appearance in four seasons.

                This clash is probably one of the biggest matches in the history of German football.  Dortmund will be hard pressed to get back to this summit with their current squad; many of the players are expected to be leaving over the next couple of seasons.  Mario Götze is already leaving for Bayern Munich after the game.  Dortmund have changed their brand significantly over the last couple of seasons; they used to challenge with Bayern style money.  Once their club’s finances hit the skids and they were close to bankruptcy, did they decide to build from the ground up and create one of the great youth academies on the entire continent.  Bayern’s legacy will also be challenged during this affair.  They haven’t won a Champions League Final since 2001; in fact they have lost in three of their last four final appearances.  A lot of their players have made Bayern their summit, and with their philosophical change after the hire of Pep Guardiola, the former great Barcelona manager, a number of these current players could be gone after the season.  Arjen Robben is viewed in most circles as a rather selfish player, and it appears that Götze will be his direct replacement.  Boateng, Gomez and Pizarro could all be replaced as well.  This has been a dominant domestic side this year, but they wouldn’t have brought in Guardiola if they weren’t prepared for some change.

                I see the game playing out one of two ways.  The first way is how most domestic clubs continental matchups go, which is boring and unconnected.  No team wants to lose to a big rival, and no player (or manager) wants to take it upon himself to be the hero.  A la 2003 European final between Juventus and Milan which was a bore 0-0 draw.  In 2000, Madrid was just superior to Valencia in every way, and the game was almost an afterthought beyond halftime.  The 2008 match between Manchester United and Chelsea had its moments, but outside of Cristiano Ronaldo’s sensational header, and Drogba’s casual slap, it rather lacked creativity and passion.  The other direction this game could go is a barn burner in which both teams attempt to attack the same way they decided to against the Spanish sides in the semi-finals, and we get a 4-3 classic.  I believe that the game will attempt to begin in this fashion as both teams sense their own confidence in being capable of winning the match.  Bayern went this route last year, and just couldn’t get the goals to finish off Chelsea.  But no fan doubted who was the better side that day.  I can't remember specifically, but I think they outshot Chelsea 28-5 on the day. Dortmund knows that their legacy with these kids is going to soon end, as there is too much money in the sport now to keep this group of talented players intact.  Bayern’s overall dominance is reason enough to give Dortmund all they can handle.  I think that with Götze officially out of the game, and with Javi Martinez and Bastian Schweinsteiger playing magnificently during these last few weeks, that Bayern will get the best of Dortmund in an open match, 3-1.

 

Borusssia Dortmund player to watch: Robert Lewandowski.  Stud. Scored 4 goals in the home leg against Real Madrid in the semi, and will be in different colors next season.  Ideally in Rooney’s #10 shirt.

Bayern Munich player to watch: Javi Martinez.  I would’ve picked Philip Lahm, but I have every round, so it’s time for someone new.  Javi is the defensive-midfield version of Zidane.  Elegant on the ball and a great, all-around understanding of the game. 

Probable Lineups:

Dortmund 4-2-3-1

GK –Weidenfeller
LB – Schmelzer
CB – Hummels (if he’s healthy)
CB – Subotic (if he’s healthy)
RB – Piszczek
DM – Gündogan
DM – Bender
LM – Großkruetz
CM – Reus
RM – Blaszczykowski
ST – Lewandowski

Bayern 4-2-3-1
GK – Neuer
LB – Alaba
CB – Boateng
CB – Dante
RB – Lahm
DM – Martinez
DM – Schweinsteiger
LM – Ribery
CF – Müller
RM – Robben
ST – Mandzukic

It would’ve been interesting to see if Toni Kroos would’ve had a place in the final before his season ending injury.  I think this is their best line-up even though I rate Kroos very highly.  Mario Gomez will be brought on if they are down, as will Schieber if Dortmund is in the same situation.  Should be pretty straight forward.  Dortmund did pass the animal test for those of you that know the history of Paul and the German obsession with his success. Enjoy the match, and until next season, goodbye readership!

The End

The European seasons are not officially over yet but in all fairness the league competitions have been over for weeks, if not months.  In truth, none of the major leagues really offered any suspense at the top as clear favorites broke away early and the competition quickly turned into “who’s second best”.  Here’s a quick rundown of what’s been going on and of course I couldn’t stop myself from giving out some awards.

Italy – The biggest mistake AC Milan has made in the last decade was letting Andrea Pirlo go to Juventus. He may not put up big numbers but you can’t really argue with how good Juventus have been since he arrived.  They also benefit from a well balanced strike force who don’t really scare anyone in Europe, but are good enough for the sub par Serie A.

This year they led the league every week with the exception of the first because Napoli and Inter had a better goal difference for 5 days.  Since then they haven’t looked back and their biggest competitor this season, Napoli, lost their footing in February and March.  With one game left they now hold a 9 point lead, with the third place Milan 9 more points behind that.

At the bottom, it’s sad to see Palermo go, only real men can wear pink like they do while Siena are confirming their yo-yo status, and Pescara, well 22 points is 22 points I guess.

Player of the Season – Arturo Vidal. You could make an argument for Edinson Cavani but Cavani doesn’t do it against the really good teams, and he doesn’t really do it when it matters that much.  Vidal is essential to a dominant Juventus and is one of the reasons that they’ll probably repeat their Championship bit next year.

One goal against a top 5 team does not impress me.

Spain – Thanks to infighting that inevitably follows Jose Mourinho wherever he goes, this two team league has been a one team season since…well since Christmas. Strangely enough it was the other side of Madrid that held on longer.  Real Madrid was out of the race in September while Atletico Madrid put up a fight until they started giving away points after the New Year. Barca was clinical until everyone realized that they’ve become a one man show.

The relegation fight is still on as Spain finishes later than most other leagues and there are seven teams still duking it out, but Mallorca look to be in serious trouble.

Player of the Season – Other than the two givens, I’d feel silly if I didn’t give a shout out to Radamel Falcao.  He’s the most sought after forward in Europe, which is pretty big considering there are some big guns who are going to command some big transfer fees this summer (Rooney, Cavani, Lewandowski) but the guy is clinical and unlike some of his competitors he scores in a lot of different ways.  It’s too bad he’ll probably be moving to a different league as he’s made La Liga bearable this season.

Another Atletico forward bound for big money England?

Germany – Bayern Munich has had one hell of a season.  They could wrap up an outstanding treble if they can dominate like they have all season for their two upcoming finals. Again, they finished the league relatively early by opening up a ten point lead at the top by the end of November…NOVEMBER!

Dortmund has had a fantastic run in the Champions League this season and they’ve done well in the league but they just haven’t been able to be quite as dominant as Bayern.  It’ll make for one heck of a final at Wembley though. Unfortunately it looks like they will get relatively dismantled this summer with Gotze and Lewandowski looking certain to leave.

It would also be good to make a note of Bayer Leverkusen’s season.  If they can keep their players they have a squad that could do some damage in Europe next season.

The relegation battle is going down to the last day with Fortuna, Augsburg, and Hoffenheim competing for the one safe spot on the table.  Augsburg has the easiest last game as they host already regulated Furth while Hoffenheim heads away to Dortmund to wrap up their season and potentially their 5 year spell in Bundesliga 1.

Player of the Year – I really want to lean towards Robert Lewandowski and all he’s done for Dortmund in the past few years, but even Sweet Lou can’t hide how important Bastian Schweinsteiger has been to Bayern and the amazing season they are having.  They’ve only given up 15 goals, they’ve only dropped eleven points in the season this year, eleven.  They are winning the league by 22 points, that’s more than last placed Furth have accumulated over the entire season.  And he is the center of it all, consistently making that team attack like clockwork while stifling other teams’ midfields attacking abilities. As a general rule, if a team doesn’t have a breakthrough forward who scores 20+ goals a season but is still successful, you need to look at their midfield to find the source of their strength, Bayern and Schweinsteiger are a prime example.

Whitest player ever.

England – One of the ‘closer’ races in the top divisions this year, the two sides of Manchester fought it out amongst themselves for a little while at least.  At the end of November United had a one point lead at the top, by the end of December it was seven.  While Robin Van Persie highlighted their early season, Wayne Rooney filled in the cold months with a few performances worth remembering, all the while helping United pull away from City so that by the end of March the lead had gone to 15.  Even a few late stumbling blocks by United couldn’t overcome a City squad that seemed to be struggling with its identity as Roberto Mancini seemed to lose control and eventually lost his job. 

The relegation battle was lively for a long time but in the end Reading and QPR never really looked like Premier League teams and Wigan who have had a long run in the EPL were sent down with one game to go after they dared to win the FA Cup.

Player of the Year – Gareth Bale, hands down. Argue about RVP or Luis Suarez all you want but teams and defenders fear Bale like they haven’t feared a wide player since Ronaldo left for Spain.  Usually players start as Forwards and work their way back to defense as they work through their teens. Bale has done the opposite of that as he’s worked from a fullback to midfielder to winger, to central attacking midfielder.  It’s a bizarre progression that you don’t see often but Villas-Boas is finding out just how versatile and talented this kid is.  Hopefully he stays at Tottenham even if they don’t see Champions League football next year.

Not a current photo.

Champions League Final – I’d be remiss if I didn’t make a prediction for the “most important game of the season”.  As a general comment on the Champions League this season I have to say it’s been one of the better seasons I can remember.  The favorites were knocked out in spectacular fashion, the underdog hipster favorites have squeaked by to make it to the final, plenty of stories and “what if’s” to talk about and most of all, another switch in the balance of power in European football. Remember when Germany only sent three teams to the Champions League every year? Italy used to be good.

Dortmund are still underdogs for this game and you can see why considering Bayern’s season.  And to be honest do see Bayern winning in the end but I think there will be goals on both sides and I don’t see a blow out like we saw in the semi-finals.  I’ll say 3-2 Bayern when it’s all over.  Lewandowski with a brace and Muller will score one or two in that bizarre, ghostly way in which he tends to score without actually participating in the game.

Sir Alex Ferguson Retires – There’s more than enough being written about this so I won’t waste a bunch of your time but I would like to say that while his successor David Moyes has done an outstanding job at Everton while spending, on average, less than 1 million pounds per year. He may have some problems attracting players the way SAF has. Ronaldo, RVP, Van Nistelrooy...they all claim to have come because of the manager, not necessarily the money. 

What could have been.

Europe's Final Four

Champions League Semi-Finals

 

                My apologies to those that actually read these snippets that I wasn’t able to offer you my thoughts and opinions on the Champions League quarter-finals.  Life has gotten a little busier now that I have two infants that have figured out how to crawl around, pull themselves up on tables, and make overlapping runs on the soccer pitch. 

This pair of matches though, are far too important to not say something about, and I think we could be in for some of the most exciting matches in the past couple of seasons in the Champions League.  For most of the season, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid have been the in-form teams, and the clubs that always had the most likely of chances to lift the cup.  All four clubs have also made this competition the priority this season, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone that all four have matched their expectations as of now. 

Bayern Munich v Barcelona:

Bayern Munich – At times this season, they have been absolutely unstoppable.  They have a +75 differential in the bundesliga with games to go, and they have been brilliant in the knockout rounds of the ECL.  First they went and played Arsenal off of their own ground in winning 3-1, and looked like they could’ve scored a few more.  They were fluid, and Arsenal could never really figure out how to maintain them.  Then, in what possibly may have been their worst game of the season, they lost at home to Arsenal 2-0.  I believe they went into the match far too relaxed, but did enough defending when it mattered to push through to the quarters.  That’s where they met Juventus, who many people felt like it would be the tie of the round.  Bayern made sure it was quick work by winning at home 2-0, and dominating in Italy and also pulling down a 2-0 victory.  They have been tough to defend, and they have a nice selection of fifteen players that have maintained a health streak unlike anything I’ve seen in years.

Barcelona – Usually the favorite any time they get drawn with an opponent, they might have to be considered the underdog going into this tie with Bayern.  In the first knockout round, they faced an organized Milan squad that sat back and took away the diagonal passing lanes that make Barcelona so dangerous.  Milan was lucky to score the first goal, but after that moment, dominated the rest of the first leg.  The second leg, we saw Barcelona and more specifically Messi at his best, and it was a comfortable 4-0 win to get to the quarterfinals.  They drew PSG in that round, and had some difficulty in defending both Lavezzi and Ibrahimovic, while maintaining their strategy of the monster possession game.  They may have been better off playing just a little bit deeper and forcing PSG to play more simple passes, but they were able to score 2 goals in Paris, which allowed them to win the round on goal difference.

Bayern v Barcelona – This is definitely the juicier of the two match-ups.  For reasons that are almost unfathomable, these two clubs haven’t met in Europe since the 2008-09 season even though one of them have appeared in every single ECL final since that year.  They have similar ideologies in the fact that both teams love to control the ball and get most of the squad involved in various attacks.  Neither club is afraid to attack away from home, and it should make for some interesting moments.  I see Bayern wanting to keep things tight in the first leg and win the game 1 or 2-0.  They know they have an advantage on set pieces and dead ball situations and may look to try and expose some of the Barcelona weakness in those situations.  I think Barcelona will attempt to control the tempo at the Alliance, and may even push to win the match to make things easy at the Nou Camp.  If Messi is able to play, Barcelona will be allowed to do what is comfortable and should make for an easy like path to Wembley.

My Prediction – 1^st leg: Bayern 1 Barcelona 1       2^nd leg: Barcelona 3 Bayern 2

Barcelona through to the final.

 

Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid:

Borussia Dortmund – With a very impressive feat, Dortmund won what many consider to be one of the toughest group stage draws of all-time with Madrid, Manchester City, Ajax and themselves, all champions of their respective domestic leagues.  Dortmund was unlucky not to win all six games within the group.  They gave up a questionable 90^th minute penalty against Manchester City at the Etihad, and let Mesut Özil equalize with less than 5 minutes remaining at the Bernabeu.  They played an attractive, free-flowing style of football that was difficult to defend, and were able to score some big goals form Robert Lewandowski and Marco Reus.  They drew Shakatar in the round of 16, and while faced a difficult match in the Ukraine, they preceded to cruise once they got back to the Signal Iduna and took the round 5-2 aggregate.  They faced Malaga in the quarterfinals, and you may already know the story that got them to this point.  It’s one of the most exciting moments I’ve witnessed as a football fan, and the whole city has gotten behind them.  For those of you that haven’t heard, they were down 3-2 aggregate and needed to score twice to get through to the semi-finals.  With less than 3 minutes to go, they struck the first one back, and then in the dying seconds, Felipe Santana bumbled the ball over the line to start euphoria among the 70,000.

Real Madrid – Nothing has gone easy for Real so far this season.  Every two weeks, fresh newspaper reports claim that Mourinho and Cristiano Ronaldo are heading for “greener pastures”.  They haven’t been in their domestic race since October.  There have been many rifts within the squad this season, and no one believes that Mourinho knows what his strongest eleven really is.  Yet, here they are.  They finished second in Dortmund’s group, but did look like they were going through by matchday 5.  They played some exciting matches vs Manchester City, and came back from a goal down beat them in Madrid.  In the round of 16, they drew Manchester United, and looked to be struggling until they went up a man.  Mourinho, with a stroke of magic, brought on Luka Modric and within 5 minutes had Real Madrid going through to the quarterfinals.  Once there they met up with Galatasaray, and although the final score made it seem like it was simple going for Madrid, they had a difficult time handling the counter attack with Didier Drogba at the forefront. They still won the first match 3-0, but with their foot off the gas, gave Gala every opportunity to make things interesting before Cristiano Ronaldo’s goal at the end put Madrid safely through to the semi-finals. 

Dortmund v Real Madrid:  Looking back at the last time these two teams played, Madrid had a little bit of a difficult time handling the counter-attack of Borussia Dortmund.  Dortmund likes to attack through their full-backs and then get the ball toward the middle where the likes of Mario Gotze and Lewandowski can latch on to it.  Madrid, and more Angel Di Maria and Cristiano Ronaldo specifically have a hard time tracking back and marking these full-backs.  Mourinho might come into the first leg and play three central midfielders that will keep Dortmund from hitting on those quick breaks.  He might be better off playing Michael Essien, Xabi Alonso and Modric and wait until the second half before bringing on a Di Maria or a Kaka.  Madrid has plenty of options to use off the bench, and Mourinho may even consider playing Karim Benzema and Gonzalo Higuain at the same time.  Dortmund usually doesn’t defer from their normal formation, nor do they pick an eleven based on their opponents.   Madrid will know exactly what they’re going to get, and we’ll see if Mourinho has the tactical wherewithal to make adjustments and get Madrid to their first final with him at the helm.

My Prediction – 1^st leg: Dortmund 2 Madrid 1      2^nd leg: Madrid 2 Dortmund 1

Aggregate 3-3 and Dortmund will win on penalties.

Dortmund through to the final.

Milan vs. Barcelona: Fluke?

This had 3-0 Barcelona written all over it.  Barça are in-form, uninjured (with the exception of David Villa who's been in and out all season), they have La Liga all but wrapped up, and are by far the favorites for the Champions league this season. Not to mention their side boasts more “world class” players than then any team in the world, save Real Madrid arguably. Milan are without their only two really world renown players in Balotelli and de Jong (Robinho doesn't count), they haven’t exactly sparkled in Serie A this season, and seem to be in a rebuilding phase both on and off the pitch.

So how did Milan beat the best team in the world when they were clear underdogs? First and foremost, luck.  They got a lucky no-call that led to a goal and loose balls seemed to go their way. But that wasn’t everything. Milan applied high pressure all night, and for once Barcelona couldn’t handle it. When Barça settled down, which they always do as they’re not a run and gun style team, their back four were pressured which they can usually handle.  Their problems seemed to occur when they got to the midfield, usually their strong suit. But Milan gave them no space. Xavi, Iniesta, Busquets, even Messi when he dropped back couldn’t even turn without 1 or 2 fleet footed Italians covering them.  And the Italians did what Italians do, they won the tackles. One shot on goal tells you how bad of a night Barça had, you could even say the score could have been 3 or 4 – 0 if El Shaarawy hadn’t made a number of rookie-style mistakes. It’s like Barcelona didn’t know what to do if someone actually treated them like equals.

Stephan El Shaarawy, while performing well in
Serie A this year, did in fact resemble
Titus Bramble against Barcelona.

I don’t consider this Milan squad to be particularly dangerous besides Kevin Prince Boateng being leagues better than I thought he was when I first saw him at Portsmouth.  But there is something to be said for sleeping giants and “Big” clubs that aren’t “Big” at the time.  Liverpool are pretty terrible right now but no one would really be that surprised if they had pulled it out and won the UEFA cup this year, and I guess the same goes for Milan.  They certainly aren’t favorites for the Champions League but you can’t deny history, and you can’t forget how they finished in 2007 when they won it last (4th in the league).

As for beating Barcelona, Inter Milan did it in 2010. They won at the San Siro and held Barcelona at the Nou Camp in a defensive display that few could forget if not for Jose Mourinho’s celebration after the game then perhaps for Sergio Busquets' acting skills. Chelsea did it last year by barely squeaking by after John Terry got a red card for a bizarre off-the-ball incident. In short, it is possible and if anyone’s going to do it it’s Milan.

Shame.

So was this a fluke? Should Allegri suddenly be considered a tactical genius? Has tiki-taka been found out? At the end of the day no one would really be surprised if Barcelona scored 3 or 4 on the return leg. But even though Milan only had 34% of the possession and everyone knows that Barcelona is the better team, something in the Milanese men made Barcelona look like boys.  Maybe it was Philip Mexès jumping well over Pedro to win a defensive header late in the game, or the way that Barcelona seemed to always have a player grabbing their head or ankle in agony that made them seem sort of silly. Or maybe it was just blind luck and good defending that won the game, but every good team and dynasty comes to an end, and 3-4 years seems to be the limit. If this is goodbye Miss Tiki-Taka, know that you are one of the best.

Leave it to the Italians to stifle an attacking side.

Champions League II

These are the Champions Part II

 

 

Second Eight

 

 

            For those of you that watched the first round of games, I hope you enjoyed them.  I was pretty far off with my first round of predictions, at least outside of picking the Real Madrid and Manchester United score correctly.  The tricky game was always going to be Juventus and Celtic, and now I believe that Juventus definitely have the horses to win the whole thing.  These next round of games should be just as exciting, and the tie of the round could be Arsenal hosting Bayern Munich.  Arsenal is at the point where anything less than a victory and the wheels may begin to come off.  Enjoy the next 4 games!

 

Arsenal v Bayern Munich

            So Far: Arsenal probably got a little more than they bargained for in coming second out of group B.  They probably should have lost to Schalke twice, and although unlucky, they also were defeated on their trip to Greece.  Podolski did score 3 goals in the group stages, while Gervinho also had 2, which is one less than he has scored in the Premier League all year.  They are going to have to find their goals from somewhere, because Bayern has plenty of fire power.  Bayern had a relatively easy time in Group F, winning the group while scoring 11 goals in their final three games.  The difficult part to defending Bayern is they got goals from 9 different players, and they have plenty of versatility in both the midfield and attack which makes them very hard to plan for.  They played their group matches in a 4-5-1, 4-2-2-2, 4-3-2-1 and a 4-4-2.  Lahm is such a talented fullback that at times it seemed they had a 6^th in midfield. 

            Up Next: To put it kindly, Arsenal are going to have a very difficult time winning this draw.  They have probably hit their worst form of the season in the past six weeks, and even their two most recent victories were 1-0 wins over teams closer to the bottom of the table.  Bayern is going in the other direction.  Their league form this season has been nothing short of sensational, and they probably already have the Bundesliga wrapped up.  Their main goal this season is to win the Champions League after finishing runner-up in 2010 and 2012.  They are also in a small state of transition, as Pep Guardiola will be taking over the squad next year.  I don’t think it will be a distraction, but some players may have to recognize that their time is growing short.  I see them playing to score an away goal or two, and then really taking it to Arsenal at the Allianz.  Arsenal should come out in a flat 4-4-2 to try and keep possession at home, but I bet Wenger plays a 4-3-3, and attempts to counter Bayern’s superior possession skills. 

            Arsenal Player to Watch: CF Lukas Podolski.  He gets to face the club in which he suffered the greatest during his stellar career.  A big chance to take revenge.

            Bayern Player to Watch: RB Philip Lahm.  I mentioned him, you may as well watch.  Outstanding when he pushes forward.

            Prediction: 2-2, 3-1. Bayern wins on aggregate, 5-3.

Porto v Malaga

            So Far: Porto was very strong in the group stages, only losing to PSG in the final matchday of the group.  Both teams had already advanced by that point, so I’m curious as to how much effort Porto had put into that match. Outside of Madrid, they were probably the team that no group winner wanted to see.  They have now had over a decade of success at this level, dating back to winning it all back in 2004.  They continue to lose top players year after year, and even though they’ve lost Falcao and Hulk over the last two seasons, they haven’t missed a beat.  They got a large number of goals in Europe from their midfield, and it probably is the most underrated group of players in Champions League.  Malaga may have been this year’s biggest surprise.  After losing their best player Santi Cazorla to Arsenal a few weeks before the close of the transfer window, due to large debts, a number of experts had written them off to finish third in group C.  No such luck.  They went over 300 minutes before conceding a goal, and won all three of their first games including wins over Zenit and AC Milan.  They finished an impressive +7 and didn’t drop one game in the group stage.  They were sound defensively, and were the closest thing we saw to Barcelona during the round of 32. 

            Up Next: This is a very difficult fixture to predict.  Neither team has played poorly all season, and both squads sincerely believe that they can go far in this tournament.  Porto likes to play a wide game, and very up tempo with lots of passing and movement.  Look for them to play a 4-2-3-1 with James Rodriguez and Varela getting in to the box to support the striker.  I think they will try to finish off the leg at the Estadio Dragao, and should make for an entertaining tie.  Malaga will match up quite differently.  Most of the play comes through the middle, and they like to attack through Isco, their impressive attacking midfielder.  He will try and dictate the play, and Malaga could very well be the team that gives Porto their second home defeat in the history of Champions League knockout play. 

            Porto Player to Watch: LW James Rodriguez.  One of the most exciting up coming talents.  Will be playing for a big club soon.

            Malaga Player to watch: CAM Isco.  See above.

            Prediction: 2-1, 2-0. Malaga wins on aggregate, 3-2.

Galatasaray v FC Schalke

            So Far: “Welcome to Hell”. This is what Schalke gets to look forward to in their first match against Galatasaray.  Gala’s fans really weren’t into it during the group stage as they only had 1 point after the first three matches.  Like a light switch, they turned it on in time to win their final three matches, sign Wesley Snejider and Didier Drogba, and put themselves into a position where they may be called the favorites coming into this match.  No one wants to go to Turkey ever, and Galatasaray do a great job of winning games at home when it counts.  For the history buffs, look back to their run in the 2000 UEFA Cup when they beat Arsenal in the title game.  FC Schalke is beginning to be a fixture in the round of 16.  Many of you may remember their run to the semi-final in 2011, and they have a solid structure and hierarchy inside the club.  They went undefeated in group play, and may have scored one of the more impressive victories in the group stages, when they defeated Arsenal at the Emirates.  They play an attractive style of football, and most of the players have grown up playing together, so there is a lot of familiarity in the squad.  What impresses most about Schalke is that the main core of their players are all still in their early 20’s or even teenagers yet.  A sign of things to come?

            Up Next: I can safely say that both of these teams probably wanted to draw each other.  Other than the talent of Celtic, no team probably has less through their squad than Galatasaray.  At least until January.  With both signings able to play, Galatasaray definitely has the talent in which to win this leg.  They will most likely come out in a defensive 4-4-1-1 and allow Sneijder to push forward and help support Drogba and Sarioglu.  Schalke comes into this matchup with a lot of concerns.  One of their best players, Lewis Holtby decided to leave for Tottenham, which left a big hole in midfield.  They have also recently struggled in the Bundesliga losing two of their last four and drawing Augsburg which I would compare to tying the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Not great form, for a team that had a chance to make a big run.  Their youth is probably their biggest concern, but on their day, they are still a difficult side to contend with and have lots of talent through the ranks.  I expect them to play their rigid 4-4-2 and try to outplay Gala during both of the fixtures.

            Galatasaray Player to Watch: ST Didier Drogba.  We thought he was going to leave like Michael, on top, with the winning kick.  Might be like joining the Wizards.

            Schalke Player to Watch: LM Julian Draxler.  Not even twenty yet, and a catalyst as to why this team is so entertaining.

            Prediction: I have no clue what to expect.  Um… 1-0, 1-0. Aggregate 1-1 and Schalke wins on penalties 5-4.

AC Milan v Barcelona

            So Far: Talk about a team in transition.  AC Milan sold off their two top players at the beginning of the season, and then sold two of their better players in the January transfer window.  They decided to replace all those players with kids from the youth academy, and one Mario Balotelli.  For those of you who know… yep.  I would assume they still want to challenge for trophies, but at this point, I have no idea.  They were lucky to get out of the group stages by gaining 8 points which was one point more than Zenit would get, which shows you how important Milan’s win at Zenit really was.  It was probably one of the best games of the group games, and the only time in which we really saw Milan shine as a team.  Domestically, they aren’t doing much better, and it will be a major upset, if they can take out the mighty Barca.  Speaking of mighty, Barcelona was exactly that during their group stage.  Although Celtic played them extremely tough and even took all 3 points off of them at Celtic Park, Barcelona was the team no one wanted to see.  They are dominating domestically, face no serious injuries, and look like they are hungry for another Champions League title. 

            Up Next: Milan is large only in history.  This looks to be one of the bigger mismatches of the knockout round of 16.  Milan does have talent in their midfield, and Prince Boateng has been in good form for most of the season.  Yet, Balotelli is cup-tied for this tournament, and won’t be able to provide ‘inspiration’ to the Italian masses.  This is no knock against El Shaarawy, Bojan and Pazzini who I believe are very good players, but probably won’t be able to penetrate the Barcelona defense.  However, even though Milan has only kept two clean sheets since their defeat of Juventus back in November, they have been playing better and could maintain Barcelona for 90 minutes.  Maybe.  Barcelona on the other hand just continues to thrive due to the hot feet of Lionel Messi and I expect them to attempt more of the same in this leg.  For all of their success, they are quite the easy team to predict when it comes to pre-match formations and line-ups.  We will see them in their Barca 4-3-3 with Fabregas helping Pedro and Messi inside the box, and both Xavi and Iniesta bossing the midfield.  Just because Milan knows what’s coming though doesn’t mean they will stop it.

            Milan Player to Watch: ST Bojan Krkic. Facing his former club, he should be motivated knowing that his spot was given to Pedro.  But does he get the start?

            Barcelona Player to Watch: CF Messi.  Why not? I can’t wait to see what he does next.

            Prediction: 1-2, 4-1. Barcelona wins on aggregate 6-2. 

Champions League

These are the Champions

First Eight

 

            Better than March Madness?  It’s pretty close.  Besides the Super Bowl and the final day of the Barclays Premier League, this is probably my favorite time of any competition.  The 16 best football clubs in Europe (more often than not), come together for a few months to determine which club can be considered the best in the world.  This year is no different.  We are missing a couple big sides compared to most seasons as Inter Milan never made it to the party, and both Chelsea and Manchester City couldn’t get out of relatively difficult group draws.  We are left with a couple of upstart sides including: Malaga, Shakhtar Donetsk, Celtic and Borussia Dortmund.  None of these clubs would be considered favorites in years past, now any of them could make it through to the semi-finals.  The following is a little synopsis of each club that play during the next week, and my predictions for their matches in the 2013 Champions League final 16. (I will follow up with the other four contests next week).

Celtic v Juventus

So Far: As much as I love Celtic’s story in this year’s competition, Juventus is almost a surefire bet to get through to the quarterfinals.  Celtic finished in second place in group G, and beat two pretty good sides (Benfica, Spartak Moscow) to get to this point.  They were able to defeat the mighty Barcelona at home, and they will be tough for any side to take three points from while on their travels.  The one reason that I can’t pick Celtic to get through to the next round though is because Juventus just will not lose.  They went undefeated last season in the Serie A, and have only lost once so far this year in the competition.  They also played some pretty impressive football in Champions League so far, having come down from 2 goals to tie Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, and they smoked Chelsea 3-0 at the new Juventus Stadium. 

            Up Next: I think this is definitely Juventus’ tie to lose.  They play the perfect style of football to defeat a team similar to Celtic’s style.  Look for them to play with two deep midfielders, and control the tempo of the games, forcing Celtic to come out and attack.  Not that Celtic isn’t capable, but the threat of Vucinic, Matri and Vidal on the counter is scary for them to consider.  They’ll be better off sitting back and waiting for Juventus to push forward.  I doubt that they have the patience.

Celtic player to watch: GK Fraser Forster.  Was magnificent against Barcelona.

Juventus player to watch: CM Andrea Pirlo.  At times, he controls games like Xavi or Iniesta.

Prediction: 1-1, 3-0.  Juventus on 4-1 aggregate.

Valencia v PSG

            So Far: PSG’s millions have finally gotten them to this point.  They did well to get to this point; winning a difficult group that also had experienced FC Porto in it.  Their only dropped points were on the trip to Porto, which is a very difficult place to play.  Otherwise they cruised through the group outscoring opponents 14-2.  Their attacking play with Ibrahimovic and Lavezzi scoring goals was extremely difficult to stop.  Valencia had a very similar experience.  With the exception of their loss and draw to Bayern Munich, they won every other group game.  Their three-pronged attack of Feghouli, Soldado and Jonas scored 11 of their 12 goals, and they were brilliant at home. 

            Up Next: Contrary to popular thought, I think this is a very difficult match up to predict.  Many believe that PSG is going to run away in this contest, but Valencia is much underrated as a team, they have played the big teams this season tough, and have a great team chemistry.  They don’t have to count on goals from one individual up front, and have about seven bench players that can all provide a spark if one is needed.  However, what PSG has done in a short time is quite remarkable.  As recent as three seasons ago, they weren’t playing in Europe.  Now they have a shot at the title.  I think PSG will play defensive in the first leg, and try and keep the score around 1-1 or snatch a 1-0 away victory.  I don’t even think they’d be that disappointed with an away defeat, granted they would probably need an away goal or two to be really comfortable.  I think Valencia goes for it in the first leg, and this has the chance to be a memorable pair of matches. 

Valencia Player to Watch: CAM Sofiane Feghouli.  Well on his way to being a world class player. 

PSG Player to Watch: CAM Lucas Moura.  I’m curious to see if he was worth the 45 million euros.

Prediction: 2-1, 2-1. 3-3 aggregate and Valencia wins on Penalties.

Shakhtar Donetsk v Borussia Dortmund

            So Far: Shakhtar did just enough to get out of one of the most difficult groups.  They were able to defeat Chelsea at home, and take 6 points off of Nordsjælland. Getting another point away to Juventus was exactly what they needed to finish second in the group and get to this stage.  They played entertaining football, and were explosive at home minus the final game in which things were already wrapped up.  Borussia Dortmund did everything that Shakhtar did, but better.  They won what many considered to be the most difficult group, and they did it with relative ease.  They were brilliant at home, and good enough on the road.  They could’ve scored 5 when they played at the Etihad. 

            Up Next: Part of me thinks that the chairman of Shakhtar is smoking crack.  Two weeks ago, they sold their best player, Willian, to Anzhi in Russia for a nice fee, but nothing astronomical.  I don’t think Shakhtar had the horses to win this entire tournament, but they were talented enough to pull an upset or two.  For as good as Dortmund was, we still don’t know exactly what we are going to get from them.  They were miserable in their warm up game prior to this one, and lost 4-1 at home to Hamburg.  They are very finesse, so if they get bruised and battered, you can take them out of their game.  Lucky that Shakhtar also plays attractive football then.  I see Dortmund trying to win the first leg, and even if they don’t, they should have enough in the tank to get through one round.

Shakhtar Player to Watch: LB Razvan Rat. Likely the most underrated left defender in Europe.

Dortmund Player to Watch: CM Sebastian Kehl. Quietly had a very nice career.  One final chance to shine. 

Prediction: 1-2, 2-0. Dortmund wins 4-1 on aggregate.

Real Madrid v Manchester United

          So Far: Real Madrid struggled a little bit in their group, but they did play against some tough opponents.  For whatever reason, it seems like Madrid lacks a little bit of motivation this season to really play at the highest level.  They came back from being down vs City at home to pull out that famous 3-2 victory, but struggled against Dortmund both in Germany and in Spain, but beat Ajax convincingly on an 8-2 aggregate.  Manchester United had what many consider to be the easiest draw of the eight groups, and cruised ahead to four straight victories to lock up the top spot.  They lost their final two games of the group, and never really hit top gear in any of the six games. 

            Up Next:  Obviously the most mouth-watering draw of the round of 16 in Champions League.  Between the two clubs they own 12 European titles, and a total of 17 appearances in the final.  There are many interesting stories to follow including the return of Cristiano Ronaldo to Manchester for the first time since his departure.  I think both managers will be cautious in Spain, but will play all their horses with the hope that one of them inspires a moment of brilliance to give their team the victory.  In Manchester, it could be quite different, especially if there are goals scored in the first leg.  Look for Jose Mourinho to play a 4-5-1 at home with Ronaldo and Di Maria playing deeper, and then a more attacking 4-3-3 at Old Trafford. 

Madrid Player to Watch: CF Cristiano Ronaldo.  An obvious choice.  A huge moment in his career.

United Player to Watch: ST Robin Van Persie. This opportunity is why he chose Man Utd. 

Prediction: 1-1, 2-1. Manchester United wins 3-2 on aggregate.