2012 Euro preview part 2 - The Contenders

In every tournament there are favorites, personal and collective, and then there are the contenders, the teams that most people can agree have a serious chance of winning.  As it turns out in the 2012 European Championships there seems to be three teams that everyone agrees on, we’re going to preview four because every tournament has a dark horse, and who doesn’t love a dark horse.

Spain – The defending champs will find that retaining their title as European champions will be much more difficult than was to win it in the first place.  Key injuries to Puyol and Villa are showing chinks in their armor that we haven’t seen in Spain for a long time.

Villa’s injury brings up what could be their biggest problem, a point man.  It’s no secret that the starting eleven for Spain’s teams generally come from Real Madrid and Barcelona, two teams with rather capable point men who can capitalize on their tiki-taka/ball possession style of play.  David Villa has been able to be that player when they apply this style of play to the national team.  In both World Cup 2010 and Euro 2008 he led the team with 4 and 5 goals each, and always looked dangerous while his strike partner Fernando Torres looked like he had lost his touch.  Without Villa they’ll be relying on Torres to be the point man all by himself, and while he has had a small surge of form at the end of the season for Chelsea, leading a team through a tournament as difficult as the Euros might prove too much for him.

Puyol’s injury brings up another thinly veiled flaw in the Spain team, their defense.  While most of the time Spain doesn’t have too much defending to do, the Puyol/ Piqué combination has worked well for Barcelona as well as Spain.  Without Puyol, Sergio Ramos will be stepping into the center of defense and it looks like Arbeloa will be starting on the right.  But playing Ramos in the center isn’t where I question their defense, Mourinho prefers to play Ramos there which is why he tried to bring Maicon over from Inter when he moved to the Bernabéu.  The problem is that Arbeloa is not the world class right back that Ramos is.  This will stunt their offense and shrink their width a little bit, and while that might not sound like much, remember that Spain didn’t exactly stroll through the 2010 World Cup, they won their last 4 games 1-0.

Summary – I don’t think this is Spain’s year.  As both Madrid and Barca found out in the Champion’s league, the better team doesn’t always win.  Between the key injuries, club form, and the inevitable complacency that every successful team succumbs to, I think it’s someone else’s time to shine.

Germany – Spain’s biggest rivals in recent years, Germany’s strength comes from their youth and energy.  With only two players over 30 (goalkeeper Weise and tournament goal scoring specialist Klose), they’ll be looking towards tournament veterans Lahm and Schweinsteiger to lead them to victory.  As they are both the heart and soul of German club giants Bayern Munich you might question whether or not they and fellow teammates Müller, Badstuber, Gómez, Kroos, and Neuer have the confidence to maneuver a tournament of this size at this time.  They came in second in the league to Dortmund, got crushed by the same team 5-2 in the German cup final and then lost on penalties to Chelsea in the Champions league finals.  I guess in the end you could say they were right there in every competition, but seeing the look on Schweinsteiger’s face after he hit the post in the Champion’s league final leads me to believe that this will have to be Özil’s tournament if Germany are to win it all.

But that might not be too much of a stretch.  Özil’s career has skyrocketed since he stepped in as Michael Ballack’s replacement in the 2010 World Cup.  His subsequent move to Madrid allowed him to fend off some guy named Kaka as the starting playmaker for the Spanish giants.  You feel that if Özil can recreate his club form for six games this summer then Germany may be able finally come out on top if they meet Spain in the final.

Summary – Germany have the skills, energy, and flexibility to go as far as they want in this tournament.  The true test for them will be their mental toughness, particularly if they come up against Spain who have sent them home in the last two tournaments.

Netherlands – While the Netherlands don’t have quite the star power that Spain or Germany have (not that they really lack star power), they do seem to have the right blend of players to challenge anyone they come up against.  They have their top tier playmaker in Sneijder, two on-fire strikers in Huntelaar and Van Persie, Robben who can create magic at the drop of a hat, and behind that a host of journeymen that allow the attack minded players to do what they do.

Strangely they’ve been drawn into the same group as Germany and Portugal which have most people suggesting they’ll finish second in the group and then end up playing Spain in the Semi finals.  While there are not many that could say they don’t attack well (they scored more than anyone during the qualifying games), the center of their midfield and defense may be their undoing.  Captain Mark Van Bommel is now 35 and while he had a solid season for Milan the rapid pace of the Euros may see him spending a game or two on the sidelines.  His Defensive midfield partner Nigel De Jong has found it more difficult to find his club form.  The glut of midfield players at Manchester City has left De Jong on the sidelines more often than he would like.  His 21 league appearances this year include 10 substitute appearances, not the role a 27 year old midfielder wants to play in a championship winning side.

The center of their defense also leaves something to be desired.  Personally I’ve never liked either Heitinga or Mathijsen.  Both had a lot of promise as youngsters but ended up playing for second tier teams rather than championship contenders.  You can’t deny that they kept it together during the World Cup, letting through 6 goals on their way to the final, but you feel that at some point they’re going to be found out.

Summary – The Netherlands promise to be one of the most entertaining teams in the tournament.  Their attacking ability is second to none but their defense could be their undoing.  The problem with journeymen defenders is that they don’t quite show up as consistently as star defenders.  If Heitinga and Mathijsen can hold it together Holland might find themselves in another final.

France – Ah the underdog.  It’s not too difficult to understand why France has performed poorly since the 2006 World Cup final.  You don’t just move on after you lose a presence like Zinedine Zidane and their attempts to find a replacement has been rather ill fated.  The 2008 combination of Toulalan and Makelele lacked creativity while in 2010 Gourcuff didn’t live up to his promise which is what he always seems to do.

But since Laurent Blanc took over they’ve been solid in both the qualifiers and their friendlies.  I wouldn’t call them clinical but they seem like a team that’s been building towards something mentally.  We already know they have the players:  Ribéry, Nasri, Malouda, Ben Arfa, Giroud and Benzema can intimidate any defense.  What they need is for one of those players to step up and be a dominant presence when the rest of the team has run out of ideas.  The other three squads on this list have that presence, Xavi, Özil, and Sneijder can be relied on to come up with bits of magic when the rest of the team look out of breath and out of ideas.

Beyond that, Blanc has taken a lot of the politics out of the squad.  The suspensions handed out after the last world cup placed him firmly in charge of the team with nothing for the players to do but concentrate on their game.  Henry is gone which was the last huge name on the team and the captaincy has been handed to goalkeeper Hugo Lloris which is about as uncontroversial as eating your Wheaties for breakfast.  Evra never really struck me as a leader anyways, him and Ribery are more workman like players than beating hearts.

Summary – Blanc has set this team up to succeed, it’s now firmly up to the players to make it happen.  There’s always one player who turns into a superstar during these tournaments and for France to win it all that player is going to have to be on their team.  Look for Nasri or Benzema to make England’s center backs look silly during their first game.