2012 Theory on NFL Success
This is my third year in determining the NFL Theory of Nate
(NTN). I am currently ranking the NFL
season of 2012. There are a couple of changes from last year, in which I
correctly picked 9 of the 12 NFL teams to make the playoffs.
Here is a synopsis of how I come up with the rankings:
20/20/20 – I rate three sections of an organization on a
scale from 1-20. 1 constitutes a team
that needs an immediate concentration of improvement for that position. 20 represent the best at their position for
their time. I did some research on the
greatest collection of NFL teams, and the average score for a Super Bowl
Champion was 17.3. The average score for
a Super Bowl runner-up was a 15.7. The
greatest team of all-time according to NTN was the 2007 New England Patriots
with a score of 19.3.(20,19,19) Eli
Manning beat them. The worst team to
make a Super Bowl in the NTN era were the 1994 San Diego Chargers with a score
of 10.6. (9,9,14) ( The NTN era starts in 1985)
The first section is Quarterback Presentation. This rates everything including: a
quarterback’s arm strength and accuracy, to leading his teammates to victory,
and how capable they can be the face of the franchise. I believe that this is the most important
position in sports, and therefore the difference between having a 1 or a 20 can
mean multiple championships, and larger revenue streams.
The second section is Front Office Efficiency. This rates everything including: game day
preparation, media and fan involvement, draft and scouting success,
motivational tactics, and general managing skills. A front office that can provide a large
number in this category can give teams the expectation of a super bowl
appearance year in and year out, and give any organization credibility with
their arrival.
The final section is defensive schematics. This rates everything including: talent
level, discipline, awareness, evolution of defensive tactics, turnover
capability, and leadership skills. A
team that can shut down both aspects of an opposing offense, while giving their
team the best opportunity to win a game is going to rate very highly in this
category.
QB
1 – Immediate opportunity to improve. Playoffs are likely impossible.
5 – Capable of flashes of success. Should improve position as soon as possible.
10 – Solid starter.
Playoffs wouldn’t be a surprise.
Super Bowl would.
15 – Team can begin to have Super Bowl expectations. Can continue with this guy.
20 – Super Bowl or bust.
This guy makes team and organization better.
Coach/Front Office
1 – Fired no later than season’s end. Lost both players and organizations
faith. Move on.
5 – Capable of winning games. May hit on draft picks periodically. Keeps job for 2+ yrs
10 – Doesn’t give away football games. Good eye for talent. Playoff potential.
15 – Winner. Gets to
the playoffs about 50-75% of the time.
Teams covet these types.
20 – These guys can be face of organization. They leave on their own terms. Instant credibility.
Defense
1 – A mess everywhere.
Gives up both big plays and long drives. Doesn’t change games.
5 – Might help the offense, but generally hurts
organization. No long-term value.
10 – Can stop most QB’s from great success. Must game plan for some of the talent.
15 – Quality and depth.
Force’s offensive to make many adjustments. Can win games.
20 – Very difficult to move ball against. Terrific vs both pass and run. Generates turnovers and scores points.
QB Rating – A 20 rating typifies as Joe Montana in his
prime, 1 is JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf and/or Akili Smith after a few seasons
in the league. Even their potential should generate as a 2+, because
technically, Russell really did have a cannon.
Front Office – 20 is the Jerry Jones/Jimmy Johnson tandem of
the 90’s, 1 is Cincinnati through
all those issues in the past decade.
Defensive personality – The teams that can make a QB and a
Front Office look like Ryan Leaf on the Bengals score a 20, and the teams that
need a 12th defensive player to tackle Marshawn Lynch get a 1.
^ designates upward potential
v designates a decline in quality
AFC East
1. New England Patriots
Q 18v F 17 D 11 = 15.3 Super Bowl quality
2. Buffalo Bills
Q 10 F 8 D 12 = 10.0 The NFL Average
3. New York
Jets
Q 7 F 8 D 11v = 8.7 Something needs to change quickly
4. Miami
Dolphins
Q 5^ F 9 D 10^ = 8.0 Getting better quickly (Last year 5.7)
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh
Steelers
Q 14 F 19 D 16 = 16.3 Front Office keeps them great year
after year
2. Baltimore
Ravens
Q 12 F 17 D 17 = 15.3 Could also easily make the Super Bowl
3. Cincinnati
Bengals
Q 12^ F 12^ D 12 = 12.0 Drafted very well recently, upper
echelon soon?
4. Cleveland
Browns
Q 6^ F 5v D 7 = 6.0 A long ways to go toward respectability
AFC West
1. Denver
Broncos
Q 18 F 15^ D 15 = 16.0 Made the biggest improvement from
last year (11.6)
2. Kansas City
Chiefs
Q 8 F 13v D13v = 11.3 Close to the playoffs, better get a QB
soon.
3. San Diego
Chargers
Q 14 F 6v D 12 = 10.7 The FO has ruined this team’s
opportunity for stability.
4. Oakland
Raiders
Q 10 F 3 D 8 = 7.0 It’s getting better here, but no Super
Bowl in short-term.
AFC South
1. Houston
Texans
Q 13 F 17^ D 14 = 14.7 We’ll see what happens when they play
the 15+ teams.
2. Indianapolis
Colts
Q 10^ F10^ D 12 = 10.7 Could have a 20 in the near future...
3. Tennessee
Titans
Q 8^ F 9 D 10 = 9.0 Hard to recognize an identity; better
get Locker right.
4. Jacksonville
Jaguars
Q 4v F 4v D 6 = 4.7 No hope for years to come.
Playoff 6
1. Pittsburgh
Steelers 16.3
2. Denver
Broncos 16.0
3. New England Patriots 15.3
4. Houston
Texans 14.7
5. Baltimore
Ravens 15.3
6. Cincinnati
Bengals 12.0
10 week summary (AFC): I could see any of the top 5 teams
making it to the Super Bowl. After 10
games though, I sure overrated the Kansas City Chiefs QB and Defense. I think Denver ’s
FO has been the best so far this year, they won’t miss Willis McGahee one bit.
NFC East
1. New York
Giants
Q 17 F 17 D 17 = 17.0 At the peak of their powers.
2. Philadelphia
Eagles
Q 13v F 15 D 14 = 14.0 Could make the playoffs.
3. Dallas
Cowboys
Q 11v F 11v D 13^ = 11.7 At a crossroads in my opinion.
4. Washington
Redskins
Q 8^ F 9 D 10 = 9.0 If I’m right, RG3 will be +15 as early
as next season.
NFC North
1. Green Bay
Packers
Q 18^ F 18 D 11 = 15.7 Defense starting to show cracks.
2. Chicago Bears
Q 13 F 13 D 17^ = 14.3 Hard to believe, but their defense
could get better.
3. Detroit Lions
Q 13 F 10 D 12 = 11.7 Jim Schwartz isn’t likeable, but he
can win football games.
4. Minnesota
Vikings
Q 7^ F 9 D 12 = 9.3 Ponder isn’t the worst thing; FO needs
to find some depth.
NFC West
1. San Francisco
49ers
Q 9 F 17 D 18^ = 14.7 Imagine if they could’ve signed
Peyton.
2. Arizona
Cardinals
Q 6v F 14 D 14^ = 11.3 Wasting all this NFL talent without a
legit NFL starter
3. Seattle
Seahawks
Q 6^ F 12 D 15^ = 11.0 Wilson
appears to win job, likeability potential sky high.
4. Saint Louis
Rams
Q 8^ F 8^ D 8 = 8.0 Finally after years of substandard
quality, they’re on the upswing.
NFC South
1. Atlanta
Falcons
Q 15^ F 18^ D 13^ = 15.3 The new Patriots? Julio Jones trade was brilliant.
2. New Orleans
Saints
Q 19v F 13 D 11 = 14.3 FO messed up big time, too talented
of a team to scam like that.
3. Carolina
Panthers
Q 11^ F 11^ D 10v = 10.7 Proved me wrong w/ Newton
pick, time to fix defense.
4. Tampa Bay
Q 11^ F 8^ D 11 = 10.0 Schiano was a sneaky pick, Freeman
could join elite.
Playoff 6
1. New York
Giants 17.0
2. Green Bay
Packers 15.7
3. Atlanta
Falcons 15.3
4. San Francisco
49ers 14.7
5. New Orleans
Saints 14.3
6. Chicago Bears
14.3
10 week summary (NFC): Very balanced conference, but no one
stands out. I assumed the Giants
would. Vikings, Buccaneers and Seahawks
all exceeding expectations, or possibly proving a flawed theory. Winning with special teams and power running
games, while however infrequent in today’s NFL, could cause my theory to
implode. All three teams have great
ground attacks. Carolina ’s
FO was my worst pick of the year; trade one of your running backs! May have
overrated Philly a bit, but this also doesn’t account for confidence of which
the Eagles have none.
Playoff predictability: I’d say 10 out of 12. I’m not sure if the Saints can overcome that
start, and the Bengals could lose out to the Colts or Chargers. Giants vs Pittsburgh
in the Super Bowl? I don’t think it’s
too far fetched, as long as Big Ben comes back to play.
Fun Fact: The Buffalo
Bills that lost 4 Super Bowls in a row?
17.3,17.3,17, and 16.6. They
would run the roast in today’s NFL!
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