Hey folks, I'm back for a little mid-winter baseball talk. Your team didn't make the playoffs in the NFL? Hope springs anew for your stickball team! Down in the dumps because the NHL greed contest is keeping them off the ice? Help me look forward to the eventual ice melt and the sunny days beyond! So, let's recap the offseason in chronological order, starting nowhere better than at the end!
- San Francisco wins the World Series in 4 games.
Obviously, as you read here, I had San Fran winning that series, but not that easily. After Verlander got knocked around in game 1 - beat by Barry Zito, no less - the Giants had the Series by the short 'n curlies, with advantageous pitching matchups in games 2 and 4, and a roughly even shot in game 3. The Tigers offense was never allowed off the ground, and it was over.
Congrats to San Francisco for their 2nd title in 3 years.
- Miguel Cabrera wins the AL MVP over Mike Trout
I think the wrong guy won. Now, don't get me wrong, Cabrera was a deserving candidate, winning a trifecta of league titles that bear a significant amount of emotional cache among baseball fans and media alike. He had a historical season. But so did Trout. Trout matched or bested Cabrera in traditional batting numbers - .326/399/.564 vs Miggy's .330/.393/.606. The differences there between them are a matter of 3 hits in the season, or 6 walks, or 24 total bases. These are largely negligible on the breadth of a season. The total base discrepancy is a bit more significant, though Cabrera's home run advantage accounts for much of it. What tipped it for me was the addition of speed and defense in Trout's game over Cabrera. Trout lead the league with 49 stolen bases, contrasted with Cabrera's 4, not to mention the impact of any extra bases taken because of his speed, which are not so easily measured here numerically. In terms of defense, numerical measures are much less precise, though Trout consistently rated as well above average at a premium defensive position, i.e. 11.0 UZR in CF, and Cabrera was well below average at a less premium position, i.e. -9.9 UZR at 3B. For me, those things outweigh Cabrera's power advantage and RBI totals.
- Toronto Blue Jays sign 3B Maicer Izturis.
Chicago Cubs sign RHP Scott Baker.
Detroit Tigers sign OF Torii Hunter
None of these moves is particularly earth-shaking. Izturis is a nice complementary piece, especially as a backup infielder. Solid defense, hits for average, decent speed. He's a useful player. Baker's a decent gamble for the money he was given ($5.5M w/incentives). I had hoped he would return to the Twins on a similar make-good sort of deal, but I'm also not disappointed to see him go. It's a good move for him to go to the NL, and it's good for the Cubs to get a potentially tradeable asset at a reasonable price if he pans out. I'm generally unable to knock a one-year deal too badly, and this one's OK. Torii moves into Detroit's outfield as an upgrade over whoever he ends up replacing - he's better on both sides of the ball than Boesch or Rhymes or Delmon or whoever else Detroit put out there aside from Austin Jackson. It may be worth a win, maybe two, to the Tigers next year, which will likely keep them atop the division.
- Twins trade OF Denard Span to Nationals for MiLB RHP Alex Meyer
This was a very interesting trade across the board. The Twins shipped their most valuable trade chip in terms of player skill + contract status to Washington, who returned a first-round-caliber arm. For Washington, this fills their need for a bona-fide CF and lead-off man. Span's career .357 OBP fits well at the top of the lineup, with 20 SB speed to go with it. This allows them to keep Werth and Harper on the corners, where their skills fit better, and keeps them from playing Morse or some similar statue-like defender in the outfield. Their pitching staff will certainly see some benefit from this move. It's the sort of move you want your team to make if your team is of playoff caliber. For the Twins, it's a move that actually gives them hope. Span, while a useful player and a popular one, to boot, was not going to be instrumental in this team's return to the playoffs based on his contract and age. Better to move him now, while at close to his peak value, than to wait for him to potentially get hurt again, or decline physically, or any number of other things. In return, they pick up a power arm and potentially-legitimate top-line starter, which is the sort of thing the system has been bereft of for a decade - not since Liriano's emergence has there been a pitcher with this much talent in the Twins' system. Of course, as a prospect, he's not a sure thing, and there are any number of things that could go wrong before he arrives in the majors, but even then, it's these sort of high-upside gambles that an irrelevant team needs to take to attempt to return to relevance. If he works out, it will more than worth the cost.
- Braves trade RHP Tommy Hanson to Angels for RHP Jordan Walden
This is an interesting trade for much different reasons than the above one. Both teams are, in effect, selling low on an asset here that once may have been thought to be an integral part of their team's future. Hanson looked like a legit #2 starter for the Braves before shoulder issues sapped his velocity and, with it, his effectiveness. A trade like this signifies that the Braves don't think he can be rehabilitated, and are trying to get while the getting's good. A move to the AL for Hanson doesn't likely bode well for his numbers, but the Angels sorely needed starting pitching after so many of last year's rotation have vacated the premesis (Greinke, Big Erv, Haren), and they needed to take a gamble that he could recapture at least some of his magic. If the shoulder recovers, he's the sort of durable guy that can go 200 innings easily. For the Braves, I'm more curious why they wanted Walden moreso than getting rid of Hanson. The Braves have a wealth of young pitching ready for the majors and only so many rotation spots to give to them, so Hanson was clearly an excess to be moved. The bullpen, however, with Kimbrel as its crown jewel, was a strong element to their squad. I would've thought an outfielder or 3B or prospect depth would've been more their target, but it seems that having Walden across from Venters in front of Kimbrel will allow Fredi to play matchups more and keep Venters' innings down this coming year after he was clearly feeling the effects of overuse from '10. This trade will show its returns soon as both will be key members of their teams' '12 campaigns.
That brings us up to the end of November - December review coming soon.
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