2012 Euro preview part 1 - The Groups

With the end of the European club season past and only a few weeks until the European championships begin it’s time to take a look at how the groups are shaping up.

Because of the inclusion of hosts Poland and Ukraine the groups have come out a little lob-sided.  It’s possible to see a runner up from groups B and C making it all the way, though for my money it’s hard to look past Germany and Spain.

Group A – The weakest group by a country mile.  The Czechs stumbled through some poor qualifiers and nicked second over Scotland but don’t look very threatening.  When your best players are your goal keeper and a midfielder on the downswing, you have to hope your younger talent comes through and I don’t see that yet.

Greece will need more than their fair share of luck to replicate what they did in ’04.   If I was a betting man I’d wager we’ll see more of the Greece of ’08 with some ugly games against the Czech Republic and Russia.

Russia looked good in the qualifiers and should be the runners up here but they’ll need some good performances from all of the experienced players that moved abroad after their run in 2008.  Poland’s connection to Dortmund means that they have some players who are coming off of a good season in Germany.  That momentum and home advantage may be enough to see them win the group.

Winner:  Poland
Runner up: Russia

Group B – While Portugal are no slouches I don’t think they have it in them to beat either Germany or the Netherlands.  Their team is littered with good players, a solid defense, and a defined leader, but they don’t play together like Spain or Germany do.   They squeaked through the qualifiers but they won’t squeak through a group this tough.  They’re going to want to take out their frustration on Denmark who are going to find it hard to find a goal.  Morten Olsen definitely has something to work with in his Denmark squad but as he and Bento will find out, there’s no room for error in this group.

I can’t see Germany losing a group game but they might tie with the Netherlands if the Dutch can tidy up their defense a bit.  Heitinga and Mathijsen have never convinced me that they should be playing in games like the World Cup final and van der Wiel has some serious promise but he’s better going forward.

Winner: Germany
Runner up: Netherlands

Group C – A tough group to call.  You expect Spain to walk through here with little trouble, except maybe a speed bump against Italy who seem to have more life in them since Prandelli took over.  Ireland, I hate to say, will just be happy to be there.  They have more heart than some of the more talented teams out there but with only 16 teams in the tournament their Cinderella story may have been just making the finals.

The trouble in this group is making the call between Croatia and Italy.  Both have solid squads but lack that leader to take them to the next level.  Totti was never really replaced and Modrić’s international form is very similar to his club form, he shows signs of brilliance but you wonder what he could be if he had better players around him.  I guess for the sake of punditry I’ll go with Croatia just because Italy doesn’t seem ready yet and Bilić has always been a good underdog to bet on.  Look for a lively game when they meet up as Italy will probably have lost to Spain and Croatia might be confident from a potential win at the hands of Ireland.

Winner:  Spain
Runner up: Croatia

Group D – One of the easier groups in my opinion.  France and England will battle it out for the winner’s spot as Ukraine has no business in this tournament and Sweden, while always pleasant to see in a tournament, will need their defense and midfield to step up as Ibrahimović and Hysén can’t do it alone.

France is a team I want to believe in, they have the players and their performances have been good since Blanc came on but I don’t know if they have it all together yet.  Since Zidane left they haven’t had a leader, Ribery is more of a foot soldier, Benzema doesn’t get any practice at it since he’s one of many at Madrid, and Evra made a mess of the World Cup.  Their best bet is that Hodgson’s England shoot themselves in the foot, and their well on their way to doing that.  Rooney will miss the first two games, one of which is against France, and Hodgson’s Liverpool bias may be costly for the lions who have asked Stewart Downing and Glen Johnson to ruin their tournament for them.

Winner:  France
Runner up: England