Champions League II

These are the Champions Part II

 

 

Second Eight

 

 

            For those of you that watched the first round of games, I hope you enjoyed them.  I was pretty far off with my first round of predictions, at least outside of picking the Real Madrid and Manchester United score correctly.  The tricky game was always going to be Juventus and Celtic, and now I believe that Juventus definitely have the horses to win the whole thing.  These next round of games should be just as exciting, and the tie of the round could be Arsenal hosting Bayern Munich.  Arsenal is at the point where anything less than a victory and the wheels may begin to come off.  Enjoy the next 4 games!

 

Arsenal v Bayern Munich

            So Far: Arsenal probably got a little more than they bargained for in coming second out of group B.  They probably should have lost to Schalke twice, and although unlucky, they also were defeated on their trip to Greece.  Podolski did score 3 goals in the group stages, while Gervinho also had 2, which is one less than he has scored in the Premier League all year.  They are going to have to find their goals from somewhere, because Bayern has plenty of fire power.  Bayern had a relatively easy time in Group F, winning the group while scoring 11 goals in their final three games.  The difficult part to defending Bayern is they got goals from 9 different players, and they have plenty of versatility in both the midfield and attack which makes them very hard to plan for.  They played their group matches in a 4-5-1, 4-2-2-2, 4-3-2-1 and a 4-4-2.  Lahm is such a talented fullback that at times it seemed they had a 6^th in midfield. 

            Up Next: To put it kindly, Arsenal are going to have a very difficult time winning this draw.  They have probably hit their worst form of the season in the past six weeks, and even their two most recent victories were 1-0 wins over teams closer to the bottom of the table.  Bayern is going in the other direction.  Their league form this season has been nothing short of sensational, and they probably already have the Bundesliga wrapped up.  Their main goal this season is to win the Champions League after finishing runner-up in 2010 and 2012.  They are also in a small state of transition, as Pep Guardiola will be taking over the squad next year.  I don’t think it will be a distraction, but some players may have to recognize that their time is growing short.  I see them playing to score an away goal or two, and then really taking it to Arsenal at the Allianz.  Arsenal should come out in a flat 4-4-2 to try and keep possession at home, but I bet Wenger plays a 4-3-3, and attempts to counter Bayern’s superior possession skills. 

            Arsenal Player to Watch: CF Lukas Podolski.  He gets to face the club in which he suffered the greatest during his stellar career.  A big chance to take revenge.

            Bayern Player to Watch: RB Philip Lahm.  I mentioned him, you may as well watch.  Outstanding when he pushes forward.

            Prediction: 2-2, 3-1. Bayern wins on aggregate, 5-3.

Porto v Malaga

            So Far: Porto was very strong in the group stages, only losing to PSG in the final matchday of the group.  Both teams had already advanced by that point, so I’m curious as to how much effort Porto had put into that match. Outside of Madrid, they were probably the team that no group winner wanted to see.  They have now had over a decade of success at this level, dating back to winning it all back in 2004.  They continue to lose top players year after year, and even though they’ve lost Falcao and Hulk over the last two seasons, they haven’t missed a beat.  They got a large number of goals in Europe from their midfield, and it probably is the most underrated group of players in Champions League.  Malaga may have been this year’s biggest surprise.  After losing their best player Santi Cazorla to Arsenal a few weeks before the close of the transfer window, due to large debts, a number of experts had written them off to finish third in group C.  No such luck.  They went over 300 minutes before conceding a goal, and won all three of their first games including wins over Zenit and AC Milan.  They finished an impressive +7 and didn’t drop one game in the group stage.  They were sound defensively, and were the closest thing we saw to Barcelona during the round of 32. 

            Up Next: This is a very difficult fixture to predict.  Neither team has played poorly all season, and both squads sincerely believe that they can go far in this tournament.  Porto likes to play a wide game, and very up tempo with lots of passing and movement.  Look for them to play a 4-2-3-1 with James Rodriguez and Varela getting in to the box to support the striker.  I think they will try to finish off the leg at the Estadio Dragao, and should make for an entertaining tie.  Malaga will match up quite differently.  Most of the play comes through the middle, and they like to attack through Isco, their impressive attacking midfielder.  He will try and dictate the play, and Malaga could very well be the team that gives Porto their second home defeat in the history of Champions League knockout play. 

            Porto Player to Watch: LW James Rodriguez.  One of the most exciting up coming talents.  Will be playing for a big club soon.

            Malaga Player to watch: CAM Isco.  See above.

            Prediction: 2-1, 2-0. Malaga wins on aggregate, 3-2.

Galatasaray v FC Schalke

            So Far: “Welcome to Hell”. This is what Schalke gets to look forward to in their first match against Galatasaray.  Gala’s fans really weren’t into it during the group stage as they only had 1 point after the first three matches.  Like a light switch, they turned it on in time to win their final three matches, sign Wesley Snejider and Didier Drogba, and put themselves into a position where they may be called the favorites coming into this match.  No one wants to go to Turkey ever, and Galatasaray do a great job of winning games at home when it counts.  For the history buffs, look back to their run in the 2000 UEFA Cup when they beat Arsenal in the title game.  FC Schalke is beginning to be a fixture in the round of 16.  Many of you may remember their run to the semi-final in 2011, and they have a solid structure and hierarchy inside the club.  They went undefeated in group play, and may have scored one of the more impressive victories in the group stages, when they defeated Arsenal at the Emirates.  They play an attractive style of football, and most of the players have grown up playing together, so there is a lot of familiarity in the squad.  What impresses most about Schalke is that the main core of their players are all still in their early 20’s or even teenagers yet.  A sign of things to come?

            Up Next: I can safely say that both of these teams probably wanted to draw each other.  Other than the talent of Celtic, no team probably has less through their squad than Galatasaray.  At least until January.  With both signings able to play, Galatasaray definitely has the talent in which to win this leg.  They will most likely come out in a defensive 4-4-1-1 and allow Sneijder to push forward and help support Drogba and Sarioglu.  Schalke comes into this matchup with a lot of concerns.  One of their best players, Lewis Holtby decided to leave for Tottenham, which left a big hole in midfield.  They have also recently struggled in the Bundesliga losing two of their last four and drawing Augsburg which I would compare to tying the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Not great form, for a team that had a chance to make a big run.  Their youth is probably their biggest concern, but on their day, they are still a difficult side to contend with and have lots of talent through the ranks.  I expect them to play their rigid 4-4-2 and try to outplay Gala during both of the fixtures.

            Galatasaray Player to Watch: ST Didier Drogba.  We thought he was going to leave like Michael, on top, with the winning kick.  Might be like joining the Wizards.

            Schalke Player to Watch: LM Julian Draxler.  Not even twenty yet, and a catalyst as to why this team is so entertaining.

            Prediction: I have no clue what to expect.  Um… 1-0, 1-0. Aggregate 1-1 and Schalke wins on penalties 5-4.

AC Milan v Barcelona

            So Far: Talk about a team in transition.  AC Milan sold off their two top players at the beginning of the season, and then sold two of their better players in the January transfer window.  They decided to replace all those players with kids from the youth academy, and one Mario Balotelli.  For those of you who know… yep.  I would assume they still want to challenge for trophies, but at this point, I have no idea.  They were lucky to get out of the group stages by gaining 8 points which was one point more than Zenit would get, which shows you how important Milan’s win at Zenit really was.  It was probably one of the best games of the group games, and the only time in which we really saw Milan shine as a team.  Domestically, they aren’t doing much better, and it will be a major upset, if they can take out the mighty Barca.  Speaking of mighty, Barcelona was exactly that during their group stage.  Although Celtic played them extremely tough and even took all 3 points off of them at Celtic Park, Barcelona was the team no one wanted to see.  They are dominating domestically, face no serious injuries, and look like they are hungry for another Champions League title. 

            Up Next: Milan is large only in history.  This looks to be one of the bigger mismatches of the knockout round of 16.  Milan does have talent in their midfield, and Prince Boateng has been in good form for most of the season.  Yet, Balotelli is cup-tied for this tournament, and won’t be able to provide ‘inspiration’ to the Italian masses.  This is no knock against El Shaarawy, Bojan and Pazzini who I believe are very good players, but probably won’t be able to penetrate the Barcelona defense.  However, even though Milan has only kept two clean sheets since their defeat of Juventus back in November, they have been playing better and could maintain Barcelona for 90 minutes.  Maybe.  Barcelona on the other hand just continues to thrive due to the hot feet of Lionel Messi and I expect them to attempt more of the same in this leg.  For all of their success, they are quite the easy team to predict when it comes to pre-match formations and line-ups.  We will see them in their Barca 4-3-3 with Fabregas helping Pedro and Messi inside the box, and both Xavi and Iniesta bossing the midfield.  Just because Milan knows what’s coming though doesn’t mean they will stop it.

            Milan Player to Watch: ST Bojan Krkic. Facing his former club, he should be motivated knowing that his spot was given to Pedro.  But does he get the start?

            Barcelona Player to Watch: CF Messi.  Why not? I can’t wait to see what he does next.

            Prediction: 1-2, 4-1. Barcelona wins on aggregate 6-2.