Champions League

These are the Champions

First Eight

 

            Better than March Madness?  It’s pretty close.  Besides the Super Bowl and the final day of the Barclays Premier League, this is probably my favorite time of any competition.  The 16 best football clubs in Europe (more often than not), come together for a few months to determine which club can be considered the best in the world.  This year is no different.  We are missing a couple big sides compared to most seasons as Inter Milan never made it to the party, and both Chelsea and Manchester City couldn’t get out of relatively difficult group draws.  We are left with a couple of upstart sides including: Malaga, Shakhtar Donetsk, Celtic and Borussia Dortmund.  None of these clubs would be considered favorites in years past, now any of them could make it through to the semi-finals.  The following is a little synopsis of each club that play during the next week, and my predictions for their matches in the 2013 Champions League final 16. (I will follow up with the other four contests next week).

Celtic v Juventus

So Far: As much as I love Celtic’s story in this year’s competition, Juventus is almost a surefire bet to get through to the quarterfinals.  Celtic finished in second place in group G, and beat two pretty good sides (Benfica, Spartak Moscow) to get to this point.  They were able to defeat the mighty Barcelona at home, and they will be tough for any side to take three points from while on their travels.  The one reason that I can’t pick Celtic to get through to the next round though is because Juventus just will not lose.  They went undefeated last season in the Serie A, and have only lost once so far this year in the competition.  They also played some pretty impressive football in Champions League so far, having come down from 2 goals to tie Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, and they smoked Chelsea 3-0 at the new Juventus Stadium. 

            Up Next: I think this is definitely Juventus’ tie to lose.  They play the perfect style of football to defeat a team similar to Celtic’s style.  Look for them to play with two deep midfielders, and control the tempo of the games, forcing Celtic to come out and attack.  Not that Celtic isn’t capable, but the threat of Vucinic, Matri and Vidal on the counter is scary for them to consider.  They’ll be better off sitting back and waiting for Juventus to push forward.  I doubt that they have the patience.

Celtic player to watch: GK Fraser Forster.  Was magnificent against Barcelona.

Juventus player to watch: CM Andrea Pirlo.  At times, he controls games like Xavi or Iniesta.

Prediction: 1-1, 3-0.  Juventus on 4-1 aggregate.

Valencia v PSG

            So Far: PSG’s millions have finally gotten them to this point.  They did well to get to this point; winning a difficult group that also had experienced FC Porto in it.  Their only dropped points were on the trip to Porto, which is a very difficult place to play.  Otherwise they cruised through the group outscoring opponents 14-2.  Their attacking play with Ibrahimovic and Lavezzi scoring goals was extremely difficult to stop.  Valencia had a very similar experience.  With the exception of their loss and draw to Bayern Munich, they won every other group game.  Their three-pronged attack of Feghouli, Soldado and Jonas scored 11 of their 12 goals, and they were brilliant at home. 

            Up Next: Contrary to popular thought, I think this is a very difficult match up to predict.  Many believe that PSG is going to run away in this contest, but Valencia is much underrated as a team, they have played the big teams this season tough, and have a great team chemistry.  They don’t have to count on goals from one individual up front, and have about seven bench players that can all provide a spark if one is needed.  However, what PSG has done in a short time is quite remarkable.  As recent as three seasons ago, they weren’t playing in Europe.  Now they have a shot at the title.  I think PSG will play defensive in the first leg, and try and keep the score around 1-1 or snatch a 1-0 away victory.  I don’t even think they’d be that disappointed with an away defeat, granted they would probably need an away goal or two to be really comfortable.  I think Valencia goes for it in the first leg, and this has the chance to be a memorable pair of matches. 

Valencia Player to Watch: CAM Sofiane Feghouli.  Well on his way to being a world class player. 

PSG Player to Watch: CAM Lucas Moura.  I’m curious to see if he was worth the 45 million euros.

Prediction: 2-1, 2-1. 3-3 aggregate and Valencia wins on Penalties.

Shakhtar Donetsk v Borussia Dortmund

            So Far: Shakhtar did just enough to get out of one of the most difficult groups.  They were able to defeat Chelsea at home, and take 6 points off of Nordsjælland. Getting another point away to Juventus was exactly what they needed to finish second in the group and get to this stage.  They played entertaining football, and were explosive at home minus the final game in which things were already wrapped up.  Borussia Dortmund did everything that Shakhtar did, but better.  They won what many considered to be the most difficult group, and they did it with relative ease.  They were brilliant at home, and good enough on the road.  They could’ve scored 5 when they played at the Etihad. 

            Up Next: Part of me thinks that the chairman of Shakhtar is smoking crack.  Two weeks ago, they sold their best player, Willian, to Anzhi in Russia for a nice fee, but nothing astronomical.  I don’t think Shakhtar had the horses to win this entire tournament, but they were talented enough to pull an upset or two.  For as good as Dortmund was, we still don’t know exactly what we are going to get from them.  They were miserable in their warm up game prior to this one, and lost 4-1 at home to Hamburg.  They are very finesse, so if they get bruised and battered, you can take them out of their game.  Lucky that Shakhtar also plays attractive football then.  I see Dortmund trying to win the first leg, and even if they don’t, they should have enough in the tank to get through one round.

Shakhtar Player to Watch: LB Razvan Rat. Likely the most underrated left defender in Europe.

Dortmund Player to Watch: CM Sebastian Kehl. Quietly had a very nice career.  One final chance to shine. 

Prediction: 1-2, 2-0. Dortmund wins 4-1 on aggregate.

Real Madrid v Manchester United

          So Far: Real Madrid struggled a little bit in their group, but they did play against some tough opponents.  For whatever reason, it seems like Madrid lacks a little bit of motivation this season to really play at the highest level.  They came back from being down vs City at home to pull out that famous 3-2 victory, but struggled against Dortmund both in Germany and in Spain, but beat Ajax convincingly on an 8-2 aggregate.  Manchester United had what many consider to be the easiest draw of the eight groups, and cruised ahead to four straight victories to lock up the top spot.  They lost their final two games of the group, and never really hit top gear in any of the six games. 

            Up Next:  Obviously the most mouth-watering draw of the round of 16 in Champions League.  Between the two clubs they own 12 European titles, and a total of 17 appearances in the final.  There are many interesting stories to follow including the return of Cristiano Ronaldo to Manchester for the first time since his departure.  I think both managers will be cautious in Spain, but will play all their horses with the hope that one of them inspires a moment of brilliance to give their team the victory.  In Manchester, it could be quite different, especially if there are goals scored in the first leg.  Look for Jose Mourinho to play a 4-5-1 at home with Ronaldo and Di Maria playing deeper, and then a more attacking 4-3-3 at Old Trafford. 

Madrid Player to Watch: CF Cristiano Ronaldo.  An obvious choice.  A huge moment in his career.

United Player to Watch: ST Robin Van Persie. This opportunity is why he chose Man Utd. 

Prediction: 1-1, 2-1. Manchester United wins 3-2 on aggregate.