MLB Offseason Review (part 1)

Hey folks, I'm back for a little mid-winter baseball talk.  Your team didn't make the playoffs in the NFL?  Hope springs anew for your stickball team!  Down in the dumps because the NHL greed contest is keeping them off the ice?  Help me look forward to the eventual ice melt and the sunny days beyond!  So, let's recap the offseason in chronological order, starting nowhere better than at the end!

- San Francisco wins the World Series in 4 games.

Obviously, as you read here, I had San Fran winning that series, but not that easily. After Verlander got knocked around in game 1 - beat by Barry Zito, no less - the Giants had the Series by the short 'n curlies, with advantageous pitching matchups in games 2 and 4, and a roughly even shot in game 3. The Tigers offense was never allowed off the ground, and it was over.
Congrats to San Francisco for their 2nd title in 3 years.

- Miguel Cabrera wins the AL MVP over Mike Trout



I think the wrong guy won. Now, don't get me wrong, Cabrera was a deserving candidate, winning a trifecta of league titles that bear a significant amount of emotional cache among baseball fans and media alike. He had a historical season. But so did Trout. Trout matched or bested Cabrera in traditional batting numbers - .326/399/.564 vs Miggy's .330/.393/.606. The differences there between them are a matter of 3 hits in the season, or 6 walks, or 24 total bases. These are largely negligible on the breadth of a season. The total base discrepancy is a bit more significant, though Cabrera's home run advantage accounts for much of it. What tipped it for me was the addition of speed and defense in Trout's game over Cabrera. Trout lead the league with 49 stolen bases, contrasted with Cabrera's 4, not to mention the impact of any extra bases taken because of his speed, which are not so easily measured here numerically. In terms of defense, numerical measures are much less precise, though Trout consistently rated as well above average at a premium defensive position, i.e. 11.0 UZR in CF, and Cabrera was well below average at a less premium position, i.e. -9.9 UZR at 3B. For me, those things outweigh Cabrera's power advantage and RBI totals.

- Toronto Blue Jays sign 3B Maicer Izturis.
Chicago Cubs sign RHP Scott Baker.
Detroit Tigers sign OF Torii Hunter

None of these moves is particularly earth-shaking. Izturis is a nice complementary piece, especially as a backup infielder. Solid defense, hits for average, decent speed. He's a useful player. Baker's a decent gamble for the money he was given ($5.5M w/incentives). I had hoped he would return to the Twins on a similar make-good sort of deal, but I'm also not disappointed to see him go. It's a good move for him to go to the NL, and it's good for the Cubs to get a potentially tradeable asset at a reasonable price if he pans out. I'm generally unable to knock a one-year deal too badly, and this one's OK. Torii moves into Detroit's outfield as an upgrade over whoever he ends up replacing - he's better on both sides of the ball than Boesch or Rhymes or Delmon or whoever else Detroit put out there aside from Austin Jackson. It may be worth a win, maybe two, to the Tigers next year, which will likely keep them atop the division.

- Twins trade OF Denard Span to Nationals for MiLB RHP Alex Meyer

 This was a very interesting trade across the board.  The Twins shipped their most valuable trade chip in terms of player skill + contract status to Washington, who returned a first-round-caliber arm.  For Washington, this fills their need for a bona-fide CF and lead-off man.  Span's career .357 OBP fits well at the top of the lineup, with 20 SB speed to go with it.  This allows them to keep Werth and Harper on the corners, where their skills fit better, and keeps them from playing Morse or some similar statue-like defender in the outfield.  Their pitching staff will certainly see some benefit from this move.  It's the sort of move you want your team to make if your team is of playoff caliber.  For the Twins, it's a move that actually gives them hope.  Span, while a useful player and a popular one, to boot, was not going to be instrumental in this team's return to the playoffs based on his contract and age.  Better to move him now, while at close to his peak value, than to wait for him to potentially get hurt again, or decline physically, or any number of other things.  In return, they pick up a power arm and potentially-legitimate top-line starter, which is the sort of thing the system has been bereft of for a decade - not since Liriano's emergence has there been a pitcher with this much talent in the Twins' system.  Of course, as a prospect, he's not a sure thing, and there are any number of things that could go wrong before he arrives in the majors, but even then, it's these sort of high-upside gambles that an irrelevant team needs to take to attempt to return to relevance.  If he works out, it will more than worth the cost.

- Braves trade RHP Tommy Hanson to Angels for RHP Jordan Walden

This is an interesting trade for much different reasons than the above one.  Both teams are, in effect, selling low on an asset here that once may have been thought to be an integral part of their team's future.  Hanson looked like a legit #2 starter for the Braves before shoulder issues sapped his velocity and, with it, his effectiveness.  A trade like this signifies that the Braves don't think he can be rehabilitated, and are trying to get while the getting's good.  A move to the AL for Hanson doesn't likely bode well for his numbers, but the Angels sorely needed starting pitching after so many of last year's rotation have vacated the premesis (Greinke, Big Erv, Haren), and they needed to take a gamble that he could recapture at least some of his magic.  If the shoulder recovers, he's the sort of durable guy that can go 200 innings easily.  For the Braves, I'm more curious why they wanted Walden moreso than getting rid of Hanson.  The Braves have a wealth of young pitching ready for the majors and only so many rotation spots to give to them, so Hanson was clearly an excess to be moved.  The bullpen, however, with Kimbrel as its crown jewel, was a strong element to their squad.  I would've thought an outfielder or 3B or prospect depth would've been more their target, but it seems that having Walden across from Venters in front of Kimbrel will allow Fredi to play matchups more and keep Venters' innings down this coming year after he was clearly feeling the effects of overuse from '10.  This trade will show its returns soon as both will be key members of their teams' '12 campaigns.

That brings us up to the end of November - December review coming soon.

The Excruciating Road To A Title: Why Everyone Should Respect The Heat’s 2012 Championship

It all started in the 2004-2005 season, a year in which Dwyane Wade pleaded for some help, and the team responded in kind giving up a moderately bright future in exchange for one of the most dominant players in NBA history, the mammoth Shaquille O’Neal. The trade included the versatile and still young Lamar Odom, Caron Butler, Brian Grant, and a first round pick. While the trade forced the Heat to give away a moderately promising future, what they got back ended up being the key piece to a title. Unfortunately, it wasn’t meant to be that year as Wade went on to get injured in the Eastern Conference finals against the Detroit Pistons, and Detroit came back to beat the Heat in game seven 88-82.

         However the next season saw Dwyane Wade achieve his vindication. The Heat re-upped their lineup acquiring Jason Williams, Antoine Walker, James Posey, and Gary Payton. When O’Neal went down with an injury colliding with Ron Artest, the Heat began to struggle. As the team languished, head coach Stan Van Gundy resigned his post for what were supposedly family reasons (although many have speculated otherwise) Pat Riley stepped in to take the reigns. In what some analysts call possibly the greatest playoff performance in NBA history, Dwyane Wade rallied the Heat back to the Eastern Conference finals and redeemed himself by aiding the team to a defeat of the defending Eastern Conference champion Pistons to lead the team into the NBA finals. Once there, the Heat proceeded to drop the first two games to a formidable Dallas Mavericks team. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter of game 3 when the Heat turned the tide, and never looked back. Riding a scorching hot Wade averaging 34.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.67 steals, and 1.00 blocks per game the Heat performed one of the NBA finals greatest comebacks rallying back to win the next four games in a row. Finally they had claimed their elusive title, and the gamble for Shaq had paid off.

         However the next season was not so fruitful. Injuries plagued the team, and while they won the division, they floundered into the 4^th seed in the playoffs and were quickly dispatched in the first round by the Bulls 4-0. Things only got worse from there. The following season much of the championship squad was gone. Wade suffered another injury-plagued season, Pat Riley relinquished his role as head coach to have knee surgery, Alonzo Mourning tore a patellar tendon and missed the rest of the season, and a very vocally disgruntled Shaquille O’Neal moaned and groaned his way into a requested trade to the Phoenix Suns. Despite the team winning him a title, and trading him as he asked to be, to the team he asked to be traded to, Shaq still found it necessary to publicly berate the organization and fans before leaving and after leaving Miami. A great consolation after the miserable season, Miami netted the second pick in the NBA draft, but after watching Derrick Rose go off the board in the first pick to the Chicago Bulls who had eliminated them from the playoffs in embarrassing fashion the Heat drafted the highly touted Michael Beasley, who needless to say, had an underwhelming NBA career in Miami while Rose quickly became a superstar.

         Heat fans would spend the next two years wondering what they would do to get back to being a championship caliber team. The fans knew that time was running short; because with a player like Dwyane Wade, you had to show you were willing to be competitive if you wanted to keep an all-star of his caliber around. Wade in turn was making sure everybody else knew that he wouldn’t be signing an extension until the team did just that. The organization was not sending encouraging signs. While Wade’s contract was due to expire in 2010, Pat Riley made it clear that until the 2010 offseason the Heat would be making no major changes to become more competitive. This started a kind of game of chicken if you will, with Wade publicly threatening to leave, and Riley constantly reminding everybody he wouldn’t make a move until his contract was up in 2010. The whole city held their breath for two years wondering if their beloved superstar would even be around by the time the organization was ready to move on anything.

         By the time the 2010 offseason rolled around, Heat fans were in a panic. Off the court problems with his wife and kids made it look incredibly likely that Wade would end up in Chicago along with the superstar they missed out on, Derrick Rose, and the team that had handed them some considerable heartache. Wade’s kids were in Chicago, Wade himself was from Chicago, and there was little doubt his presence in the windy city would make the Bulls an instant competitor. He was going through a very messy divorce that could have seen his wife getting custody of his children, and moving them to their home in Chicago. Wade had recently left Converse to join Michael Jordan’s Jumpman brand, his divorce proceeding were getting messy, and the prospect was growing everyday the Heat stood silent that Wade would end up going north to be with his kids in the Windy City. To make matters worse, Beasley was traded to Minnesota, and the roster was stripped of almost every player, making a non-competitive team even less so.

         Stealing the headlines from anything Heat fans were going through at the time was what was happening in Cleveland. LeBron James was tired of waiting. The efforts to bring in Shaq and Antwan Jamison failed to take the Cavs over the hump, and it was clear that they needed to make a big move in order to keep King James near his hometown. The problem was, nobody wanted to go near his hometown. Amare Stoudamire didn’t want to go to Cleveland. Chris Bosh didn’t want to go to Cleveland. In fact, none of the big names wanted to go to Cleveland. As it became obvious that nobody was going to Ohio to help LeBron, the realization started to sink in. LeBron had to leave to get help. A national outcry began for a city plagued with losing teams that was getting ready to lose a homegrown talent that was the best in his sport. Lost in the shuffle, was any empathy for another city getting ready to lose its most beloved superstar. Unlike the outcry for James to stay in Cleveland, the nation was looking forward to seeing Dwyane Wade playing side-by-side Derrick Rose in a Bulls uniform. Nobody had a tear of compassion for the Magic City.

         Then came the key domino that changed everything. Pat Riley had signed Chris Bosh. While it seemed innocuous to most, I was telling everybody, the King is coming to South Florida. Of course, most people thought he was going to New York, or Chicago, or taking the multitude of other offers. For a while as a longtime Heat fan myself, I was forced to play the role of the rabidly insane homer in order to say what I thought was the overwhelming likelihood. How did I know based on the Bosh signing alone? Once Bosh signed in Miami, it was clear Dwyane Wade was going to finally resign. With the Heat having dumped an entire roster’s worth of salary, and two major superstar already playing in Miami, if Lebron wanted the surest shot at a title there was no way he could risk allowing Pat Riley to use the rest of his cash to put a team around them that could lock him out of a title again no matter where he went. They had the money, they had the superstars, and either Riley was going to spend that cash on James, or he would spend that cash on a supporting cast that could stop him. There was no collusion involved, no under the table talks necessary. There was simply no other choice LeBron could make that had a higher probability of success once those two guys were together on a team with that much cash left to spend. It was either join them, or take the chance of getting beat by them. He simply couldn’t take the chance. It was really that simple and obvious for me. While opting against simply making the announcement on his website as he previously planned, he took ESPN up on their less well thought out plan to announce it on national television. Thus, the decision was born. It was a good decision, announced by a really, really bad one.

         In what was supposed to be a very normal and ordinarily predictable practice for the Heat marketing team, a pep rally was scheduled to announce the formation of the historically formed team that was a good two to three years in the making. The city rejoiced. Their beloved superstar had stayed after years of threatening to leave, and offseason events that made it an incredibly likely scenario. They had obtained a great all-star caliber big man alongside him in Chris Bosh, and most of all, the King was coming. In a city like Miami, it was inevitable you would see the party of all parties celebrating this. Unfortunately, what was supposed to be a local event was also broadcast on the national media. With multiple cities scorned having missed the prospect of obtaining the best player in basketball, the media saw the perfect reason to create a villain, and a pep rally that was supposed to let the steam out of years of panic and worry, turned into a rub-it-in-your-face festival overnight.

         The newly formed big three did something that, had it not been for the disdain involved in everything, should have been widely applauded. They did the rare professional sports act of taking less money in order to win a title. This was wasted on the public’s perception of the Heat becoming the NBA’s bad guys. The following season that brought enormous amounts of pressure like the sports world had never seen, and in the face of another disappearing act by LBJ in the finals, as well as a Dallas Mavericks team I had unwittingly speculated earlier in the season was the deepest team in the league, the Mavs defeated the Heat in one of the sweetest revenges I had ever seen in modern sports. They had finally gotten them back for their incredible collapse at the hands of Dwyane Wade and Shaq in 2006 to win their first title. That offseason, the critics went to town on the franchise, and Lebron took as big a mass media beating one could ever take. The city of Miami got caught in the crossfire as again, little sympathy was shown and the city was vilified alongside him.

         With another offseason to round out the kinks, Riley turned his attention to the bench and solidified the rest of the team a bit. With a healthy Mike Miller returning, the drafting of Norris Cole, and the acquisition of Shane Battier, Miami was much more ready to be title bound, and that’s exactly what they were. Though people doubted their ability to win without an established and proven center, the smarts of Erik Spoelstra and the versatility of their players helped them defy the odds. They proved they could play shut down perimeter defense against Carmelo Anthony and the Knicks in a series that saw Amare Stoudamire and Jeremy Lin on milk cartons. They proved they could beat a big physical team with greats bigs and lots of depth like the Pacers, They proved they could handle a team with a great point guard and lots of big men like the Celtics, and reinforced their ability to stop a team with an intimidating frontcourt and big time superstars in the Oklahoma City Thunder en route to LeBron James & Chris Bosh’s first NBA titles, and it was additions like Mike Miller and Shane Battier who made all the difference in the end. They answered every question they could possibly answer. If you can’t respect what Heat fans had to go through to get here, and what the players had to do to earn that title, what in the world of sports could you possibly respect?

FIFA Ballon d'or

As we come to the close of year 5 of the Messi/ Cristiano Ronaldo debate I figured I’d throw in my 2 cents.  Not to try to determine who is better, you can debate that until the cows come home, but more as a reminder of how ridiculously lucky we are to have both of these brilliant players at the height of their abilities at the same time.  And I don’t mean brilliant in the British way as in “wow, that gravy is brilliant”, I mean brilliant as in, they are doing things that I have not seen before and will only see again in half-as-good copy cat ways.

The Ballon d’or is very rarely a contest.  The very fact that it is decided upon by journalists makes it suspect to serious questioning, but for the sake of argument let’s forget that.  Instead, let’s look at who has won the award that could be considered as good as these two and then let’s look at their competition that year.  Keep in mind a couple of things:  1.The Ballon d’or used to be only available to players playing in Europe, since 2010 it’s been combined with a FIFA award so it can now go to anyone playing anywhere in the world.  2.  The award almost never goes to a defensive player much less a goal keeper.  Lev Yashin is the only keeper to ever bring the award home.  3.  If you are the best offensive player on the team that wins the European cup/Champions league, you are a shoe in regardless of what other players may have accomplished.

If you don't know about Lev Yashin you seriously need to look him up.

Of the players who have won the award since the inception of the Champions League I would consider Ronaldinho, Zidane, Ronaldo, and Van Basten at the same level as Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.

Let’s start with Marco Van Basten, one of the few players to ever win this award three times and, many would argue, if it hadn’t been for injury one of the best players to ever play the game.  In 1992 he led Milan to their first Serie A title in four years which would allow them to qualify for the Champions League (remember when only champions got to participate in it?).  He then fought an ankle injury for 2 years but ended up retiring when he couldn’t overcome it.

His main competition in 1992 was Hristo Stoichkov the Bulgarian who would eventually win the trophy in 1994.  But Stoichkov had good seasons here and there, not a sustained career where he was always good like Van Basten.  He also had the misfortune of playing for Bulgaria so his national career would never leave the ground.

Other notable players that year:  Dennis Bergkamp, also from the Netherlands, Tomas Hassler, Peter Schmeichel and the Laudrup brothers.  All of these players are fantastic, but not as good as Van Basten, Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo.

Next on the list is Ronaldo Luiz Nazario de Lima, otherwise known as the fat Ronaldo.  His story is fairly similar to Van Basten’s in that he dominated when he was young but his memory will be tarnished by debilitating injuries.  From 1994-96 he ripped up the Eredivisie and suffered his first bad injury (half of a season), he was then bought by Barcelona and had one of those seasons (1996-97) that you should tell your grandkids about.  He then moved to Inter Milan where he spent one and a half years making defenders look silly and about three years injured.  During this spell he won the Ballon d’or (1997) and came in second by a single point in 1996, losing to Matthias Sammer who had the benefit of playing for Germany who had won the 1996 Euro.

You remember Matthias Sammer right...right.

Zinedine Zidane won the award in 1998 while playing with Juventus.  As a midfielder he scored remarkably few goals but had technical ability that few people can match.  He was aided by France winning the World Cup in 1998 but never pleased the journalists enough to win it again.

After recovering from his injury (and winning the world cup for Brazil) Ronaldo moved to Real Madrid where he would team up with Ballon d’or rivals Roberto Carlos and Zidane.  The most interesting part of his career in the Ballon d’or is how he and Zidane only had one season where they both could have won it.  In 2002 Ronaldo led Brazil to World Cup glory and then had a remarkable season for Madrid so he won the award, Zidane also had a remarkable season for Madrid but was injured for most of the World Cup which prevented him from getting votes he otherwise would have.  Again, one of the few situations where there was a legitimate competition between two great players.

His hair had nothing to do the winning.

Ronaldinho simply had no peers during a two year stint at the top during 2005 and 2006.  His ball control was almost unparalleled during this time and he was able to use it to take over games and show us things not seen before.  Unfortunately no one else could really compete with him during this time.  Thierry Henry and Andriy Shevchenko are the two players that got closest to him during that time but neither of them will be spoken of in the same breath as the other greats that we’re talking about here.

So I guess that’s my point here.  Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo are amazing players, better than Stoichkov, better than Kaka, better than Deco, Baggio, Sammer or Figo.  And they’ve both been doing it for five years now.  They rarely get injured, are always battling for trophies and each have their staunch defenders who stand up and say they’re the best.

What might be the strangest part is that they could still do this for another 3-4 years barring injury.  Cristiano Ronaldo is 27, Messi 25 and to tell you the truth I don’t see another up and coming player of their caliber.

Do you?

NTN 2012

2012 Theory on NFL Success

This is my third year in determining the NFL Theory of Nate (NTN).  I am currently ranking the NFL season of 2012. There are a couple of changes from last year, in which I correctly picked 9 of the 12 NFL teams to make the playoffs. 

Here is a synopsis of how I come up with the rankings:

20/20/20 – I rate three sections of an organization on a scale from 1-20.  1 constitutes a team that needs an immediate concentration of improvement for that position.  20 represent the best at their position for their time.  I did some research on the greatest collection of NFL teams, and the average score for a Super Bowl Champion was 17.3.  The average score for a Super Bowl runner-up was a 15.7.  The greatest team of all-time according to NTN was the 2007 New England Patriots with a score of 19.3.(20,19,19)  Eli Manning beat them.  The worst team to make a Super Bowl in the NTN era were the 1994 San Diego Chargers with a score of 10.6. (9,9,14) ( The NTN era starts in 1985)

The first section is Quarterback Presentation.  This rates everything including: a quarterback’s arm strength and accuracy, to leading his teammates to victory, and how capable they can be the face of the franchise.  I believe that this is the most important position in sports, and therefore the difference between having a 1 or a 20 can mean multiple championships, and larger revenue streams. 

The second section is Front Office Efficiency.  This rates everything including: game day preparation, media and fan involvement, draft and scouting success, motivational tactics, and general managing skills.  A front office that can provide a large number in this category can give teams the expectation of a super bowl appearance year in and year out, and give any organization credibility with their arrival. 

The final section is defensive schematics.  This rates everything including: talent level, discipline, awareness, evolution of defensive tactics, turnover capability, and leadership skills.  A team that can shut down both aspects of an opposing offense, while giving their team the best opportunity to win a game is going to rate very highly in this category.

QB

1 – Immediate opportunity to improve.  Playoffs are likely impossible.

5 – Capable of flashes of success.  Should improve position as soon as possible.

10 – Solid starter.  Playoffs wouldn’t be a surprise.  Super Bowl would.

15 – Team can begin to have Super Bowl expectations.  Can continue with this guy.

20 – Super Bowl or bust.  This guy makes team and organization better.

Coach/Front Office

1 – Fired no later than season’s end.  Lost both players and organizations faith.  Move on.

5 – Capable of winning games.  May hit on draft picks periodically.  Keeps job for 2+ yrs

10 – Doesn’t give away football games.  Good eye for talent.  Playoff potential.

15 – Winner.  Gets to the playoffs about 50-75% of the time.  Teams covet these types.

20 – These guys can be face of organization.  They leave on their own terms.  Instant credibility.

Defense

1 – A mess everywhere.  Gives up both big plays and long drives. Doesn’t change games.

5 – Might help the offense, but generally hurts organization.  No long-term value.

10 – Can stop most QB’s from great success.  Must game plan for some of the talent.

15 – Quality and depth.  Force’s offensive to make many adjustments.  Can win games.

20 – Very difficult to move ball against.  Terrific vs both pass and run.  Generates turnovers and scores points.

QB Rating – A 20 rating typifies as Joe Montana in his prime, 1 is JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf and/or Akili Smith after a few seasons in the league. Even their potential should generate as a 2+, because technically, Russell really did have a cannon.

Front Office – 20 is the Jerry Jones/Jimmy Johnson tandem of the 90’s, 1 is Cincinnati through all those issues in the past decade.

Defensive personality – The teams that can make a QB and a Front Office look like Ryan Leaf on the Bengals score a 20, and the teams that need a 12^th defensive player to tackle Marshawn Lynch get a 1. 

^ designates upward potential

v designates a decline in quality

AFC East

1. New England Patriots

Q 18v F 17 D 11 = 15.3 Super Bowl quality

2. Buffalo Bills

Q 10 F 8 D 12 = 10.0 The NFL Average

3. New York Jets

Q 7 F 8 D 11v = 8.7 Something needs to change quickly

4. Miami Dolphins

Q 5^ F 9 D 10^ = 8.0 Getting better quickly (Last year 5.7)

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

Q 14 F 19 D 16 = 16.3 Front Office keeps them great year after year

2. Baltimore Ravens

Q 12 F 17 D 17 = 15.3 Could also easily make the Super Bowl

3. Cincinnati Bengals

Q 12^ F 12^ D 12 = 12.0 Drafted very well recently, upper echelon soon?

4. Cleveland Browns

Q 6^ F 5v D 7 = 6.0 A long ways to go toward respectability

AFC West

1. Denver Broncos

Q 18 F 15^ D 15 = 16.0 Made the biggest improvement from last year (11.6)

2. Kansas City Chiefs

Q 8 F 13v D13v = 11.3 Close to the playoffs, better get a QB soon. 

3. San Diego Chargers

Q 14 F 6v D 12 = 10.7 The FO has ruined this team’s opportunity for stability.

4. Oakland Raiders

Q 10 F 3 D 8 = 7.0 It’s getting better here, but no Super Bowl in short-term.

AFC South

1. Houston Texans

Q 13 F 17^ D 14 = 14.7 We’ll see what happens when they play the 15+ teams.

2. Indianapolis Colts

Q 10^ F10^ D 12 = 10.7 Could have a 20 in the near future...

3. Tennessee Titans

Q 8^ F 9 D 10 = 9.0 Hard to recognize an identity; better get Locker right.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

Q 4v F 4v D 6 = 4.7 No hope for years to come.

Playoff 6

1. Pittsburgh Steelers 16.3

2. Denver Broncos 16.0

3. New England Patriots 15.3

4. Houston Texans 14.7

5. Baltimore Ravens 15.3

6. Cincinnati Bengals 12.0

10 week summary (AFC): I could see any of the top 5 teams making it to the Super Bowl.  After 10 games though, I sure overrated the Kansas City Chiefs QB and Defense. I think Denver’s FO has been the best so far this year, they won’t miss Willis McGahee one bit.

NFC East

1. New York Giants

Q 17 F 17 D 17 = 17.0 At the peak of their powers.

2. Philadelphia Eagles

Q 13v F 15 D 14 = 14.0 Could make the playoffs.

3. Dallas Cowboys

Q 11v F 11v D 13^ = 11.7 At a crossroads in my opinion.

4. Washington Redskins

Q 8^ F 9 D 10 = 9.0 If I’m right, RG3 will be +15 as early as next season.

NFC North

1. Green Bay Packers

Q 18^ F 18 D 11 = 15.7 Defense starting to show cracks.

2. Chicago Bears

Q 13 F 13 D 17^ = 14.3 Hard to believe, but their defense could get better.

3. Detroit Lions

Q 13 F 10 D 12 = 11.7 Jim Schwartz isn’t likeable, but he can win football games.

4. Minnesota Vikings

Q 7^ F 9 D 12 = 9.3 Ponder isn’t the worst thing; FO needs to find some depth.

NFC West

1. San Francisco 49ers

Q 9 F 17 D 18^ = 14.7 Imagine if they could’ve signed Peyton.

2. Arizona Cardinals

Q 6v F 14 D 14^ = 11.3 Wasting all this NFL talent without a legit NFL starter

3. Seattle Seahawks

Q 6^ F 12 D 15^ = 11.0 Wilson appears to win job, likeability potential sky high.

4. Saint Louis Rams

Q 8^ F 8^ D 8 = 8.0 Finally after years of substandard quality, they’re on the upswing.

NFC South

1. Atlanta Falcons

Q 15^ F 18^ D 13^ = 15.3 The new Patriots?  Julio Jones trade was brilliant.

2. New Orleans Saints

Q 19v F 13 D 11 = 14.3 FO messed up big time, too talented of a team to scam like that.

3. Carolina Panthers

Q 11^ F 11^ D 10v = 10.7 Proved me wrong w/ Newton pick, time to fix defense.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Q 11^ F 8^ D 11 = 10.0 Schiano was a sneaky pick, Freeman could join elite.

Playoff 6

1. New York Giants 17.0

2. Green Bay Packers 15.7

3. Atlanta Falcons 15.3

4. San Francisco 49ers 14.7

5. New Orleans Saints 14.3

6. Chicago Bears 14.3

10 week summary (NFC): Very balanced conference, but no one stands out.  I assumed the Giants would.  Vikings, Buccaneers and Seahawks all exceeding expectations, or possibly proving a flawed theory.  Winning with special teams and power running games, while however infrequent in today’s NFL, could cause my theory to implode.  All three teams have great ground attacks.  Carolina’s FO was my worst pick of the year; trade one of your running backs! May have overrated Philly a bit, but this also doesn’t account for confidence of which the Eagles have none.

Playoff predictability: I’d say 10 out of 12.  I’m not sure if the Saints can overcome that start, and the Bengals could lose out to the Colts or Chargers.  Giants vs Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl?  I don’t think it’s too far fetched, as long as Big Ben comes back to play. 

Fun Fact:  The Buffalo Bills that lost 4 Super Bowls in a row?  17.3,17.3,17, and 16.6.  They would run the roast in today’s NFL!  

NHL Fun

I don’t really touch on the NHL that frequently, but with there being a lock out and everything, I thought it would be a great time to include hockey in discussions.  What better way then to pick a greatest all-time team?  There’s literally hundreds of good hockey players to choose from, and with three lines, it’s a little deeper than choosing line-ups vs. the NBA. 

G Dominik Hasek – For me the greatest.  Had some terrible teams until he got to Detroit.

G Curtis Joseph – Roy wouldn’t have the humility to be a 2, CuJo did it once.

Line 1

C Wayne Gretzky – Have to.

LW Pavel Bure – Fastest I’ve ever seen.

RW Theo Fleury– Always been a big fan and creates an all speed line.

Line 2

C Mario Lemieux – See what I mean?

LW Kevin Stevens – Might as well.

RW Jaromir Jagr – Complete the dynasty

Line 3

C Steve Yzerman – Extremely underrated. 6^th most pts all time.

LW Luc Robitaille – Just scored goals.

RW Alexander Ovechkin – Beast on this line.

Grind Line

C Bob Probert – Never saw him lose.

LW Derek Boogaard – Miss this man.

RW Tie Domi – The trifecta of animals.

Defensive Pairing 1

D Ray Bourque – This will be insane.

D Chris Chelios – The other half of insanity.

Defensive Pairing 2

D Paul Coffey – So many good all-time defensemen.

D Phil Housley – My Minnesota touch.

Defensive Pairing 3

D Bobby Orr – Because I feel that people would be upset if I didn’t.

D Rob Blake – The Stevie Y of defensemen.

You can see when I became a hockey fan, and when I lost interest in the sport.  In my defense though, those twenty years from the early 1980’s until the end of the 20^th century, there were some fantastic hockey players, and some really great teams.  I’m still missing Messier, Leetch, Roenick, MacInnis, Roy, Belfour, among many others.  What a great generation.   

Wolves vs Magic

Wolves will look to end two losing streaks at the Target Center tonight (7:10CST).

The Wolves have not defeated the Magic at the Target Center since November 11th 2006.  George Bush was President.

Magic have defeated the Wolves in their last seven meetings.  Dwight Howard played in all of those games.

Blurbs:

Pek will go against Nikola Vucevic in the paint, Montenegro Style. Expect them both to, yes, GO HARD in the paint.

Magic will be without Veteran Hedu Turkoglu and Al Harrington.  Jameer Nelson has a strained hamstring and groin and will most likely not see the floor.

Arron Afflalo is coming off 28 points in a loss to the Bulls.

Purdue's own E'Twaun Moore will start in place on Nelson.

AK47 averages 14ppg against the Magic, his highest total against any NBA team.

Wolves may have a harder time rebounding than against Brooklyn (46-30) as Glen (Big Baby) Davis will be playing motivated with the departure of Howard.

Keys:

Play disciplined - limit turnovers, and don't let injury ridden team stay in the game late.  Players like Afflalo will   make it hurt.

Stay Big - Going at Glen Davis and putting him in early foul trouble will force Orlando into a game-plan that more than likely just doesn't exist.

THIS GAME IS IMPORTANT. 

We need to take early season match-ups such as these with a sense of urgency.  Win now without a fully healthy Roy, Rubio, and Love and we won't need to catch up later.

United We Run.

HOWL.

Some Brooklyn Recap

Wolves turned some heads Monday as they battled back from 22 to defeat the Brooklyn Nets for the first time at Barclay's Arena. 

96 - 96 with a little over a minute, Alexi Shved gets a bucket.  Wolves get a steal, JJ hits a flying Pek in the lane for a layup.  Wolves get another stop, Chase nails a dagger to make the score 103 - 96 with 50 seconds remaining in the game.

The fans remained in their seats and were not a factor in the final two minutes of play.  

"..In the second half, we just talked to each other and did not worry about the losing quarter. We had to just improve our game because since the beginning of the season we had good stretches and bad stretches, but we have to stay in the game with consistency." 

AK47 (16 points, 10 boards, and 6 assists in 32 Minutes)

JJ Barea, who was questionable with a concussion, played 29 minutes (6 points, 6 assists) after the team was unsure about his status (concussion).

JJ will be huge both on the court as a pivotal role as a play-maker but also in the locker room as one of the teams Veteran Leaders.

Daunte Cunningham played Tolliver like hustle minutes with countless additions that will not show in the box score.