San Francisco vs Cincinnatti

Starting Pitching
Cain, Bumgarner, Lincecum, Vogelsong
vs
Cueto, Arroyo, Latos, Bailey

Advantage: Reds

San Francisco certainly has the name recognition advantage.  Lincecum and Cain powered these guys to the World Championship just two short years ago.  This year, well, it's been Cain.  Bumgarner's been really good.  But Lincecum?  Not so much.  What you might not have known is that Cueto for Cincy has been every bit Cain's equal.  Latos was just before this season the offseason's biggest trade.  The Reds' starters' ERA was BETTER than the Giants', despite playing in one of the most offense-happy ballparks in the league.  Cincinnatti's team ERA+, which is a number rating a team's ERA against the league average with adjustment for park factor, is a whopping 127, with 100 as the average.  San Francisco plays in a pitchers' park, and their team ERA+ was actually below average at 95.  In the game-by-game, I like San Fran in game 1 and 2, and Cincy in 3 and 4, but the Reds' disadvantage in their losses is much smaller than the Giants'.

Bullpen
Casilla, Lopez, Romo, Affeldt
vs
Chapman, Marshall, Arredondo, Ondrusek

Advantage: Reds

Chapman and Marshall may be as devastating a 8th-9th combo as is left in the playoffs.  Chapman only struck out 122 in 72 innings.  Only Kimbrel had a higher rate.  By comparison, Marshall's 10.9 K/9 is pedestrian.  To be fair, San Fran's Romo has put together an amazing season himself, but it's hard to match him up against one of the all-time best relief seasons in Aroldis.  Both bullpens drop off after their top two or three, but that's less an issue here.  If the Reds have a lead after 7, the game is over.

Lineup
Pagan 8, Scutaro 4, Sandoval 5, Posey 2, Pence 9, Nady 7, Belt 3, Arias 6
vs
Phillips 4, Cozart 6, Votto 3, Ludwick 7, Bruce 9, Rolen 5, Hanigan 2, Stubbs 8

Advantage: Giants

Both of these teams have an MVP-caliber player to anchor their team around.  Votto was toting an absurd .450 OBP for the better part of the first half.  Posey has posted his own counterpart to Mauer's '09 season as far as offensive output from a catcher goes.  Although the Giants had the fewest HR in the NL, a mere 103, they still managed to keep pace with the Reds as far as SLG goes (.411 to .397), most likely owing to the spacious outfield they call home.  The Giants' ability to get on base (.325 OBP) allows them to take advantage of those extra base hits, to the point that they outscored the Reds this year 718 to 669.  Fielding metrics had both teams slightly above average, so there isn't an advantage to be had there.  It may take more hits to get their runs, but I think the Giants have more people able to get them than the Reds do. 

Prediction: Reds in 4

I think the Reds sneak out game 1 despite a great performance from Cain, then take games 3 and 4 in Cincy.  I like the Giants' team this year, but the Reds' pitching staff top to bottom is too much for me to ignore this time.