Detroit vs Oakland

Starting Pitchers
Verlander, Fister, Sanchez, Scherzer
vs
Parker, Milone, Anderson, Griffin

Advantage: Tigers

At first glance, I think Detroit has the edge in gms 1, 2, and 4.  Oakland's rotation choices are odd, in my opinion.  I would've thought Anderson would've been the guy tabbed to face Verlander, as he's the most likely to match a Verlander outing.  Also, Milone has heavy home-road splits, so he'd be the logical gm 3 choice in this format.    Overall, the Tigers and A's were very evenly matched in starting pitching numbers.  90 quality starts each.  Equivalent home run rates and walk rates.  Starter ERA - A's 3.80, Tigers 3.76.  Then the Tigers start separating.  League-leading K/9 of 8.19 - A's 6.27.  League-leading fWAR (SP only) of 20.5 - A's 13.6, where fWAR is the Wins Above Replacement metric used by fangraphs.com.  In particular, I focus on the K/9 that the Tigers put up.  The A's were the most strikeout-prone offense in the AL this year.  Verlander and Scherzer will eat them up.

Bullpens
Valverde, Benoit, Coke, Dotel
vs
Balfour, Cook, Blevins, Doolittle

Advantage: Athletics

Full disclosure alert - I'm biased against the Tigers' pen.  I think Valverde is the worst well-thought-of reliever in the game.  I think Benoit is good, but had a fluky year that let everyone go crazy about him.  I don't like the way the Tigers' mothers dress them.  But looking over the numbers, there isn't much to distinguish the two.  Tigers with a couple more strikeouts, and a couple less walks.  Athletics less homer-prone.  Even their FIP (fielding independent pitching) numbers rate out equal - DET 3.77, OAK 3.74.  I guess this one comes down to feel for me, and I've got more faith in the A's, particularly when the chaff gets culled from the rosters and only the best relievers on a team see action.


Lineups
Jackson 8, Berry 7, Cabrera 5, Fielder 3, Young 0, Dirks 9, Peralta 6, Avila 2, Infante 4
vs
Crisp 8, Drew 6, Cespedes 7, Moss 3, Reddick 9, Donaldson 5, Smith 0, Norris 2, Pennington 4

Advantage: Tigers

This is another feel case.  I want to say the Tigers are the better offense.  They're better at getting on base (.335 to .310).  They slug better (.422 to .404).  They have a muuuuuch higher batting average (.268 to .238!).  And yet, the Tigers only scored 13 more runs over the course of the season.  This may be the "clutch" thing coming through, I don't know, but I do not feel it's a good predictive measure.  The A's even out-homered the Tigers 195 to 163.  And then we get to the defense. According to fangraphs again, the A's defense was as good as the Tigers' was bad.  The A's compiled a UZR of 24.3, to the Tigers' -28.1.  This discrepancy even pushed the A's WAR past the Tigers' (23.8 to 21.1), though the difference is small on a team scale.  I think given a large enough sample, the Tigers would out-perform the A's, but the things the A's do better - homers, and not bungling things in the field - are the sorts of things that only need one of to be catastrophic in the post season.

Conclusion: Tigers in 5
I would've picked the Tigers to lose to the Yanks, Rangers, and Angels, but Texas' collapse and the A's surge have left two of those three out of the playoffs at this point.  It may take two Verlander starts to do it, but I see the Tigers winning.