St. Louis vs Washington

Starting Pitching
Wainwright, Garcia, Carpenter, Lohse
vs
Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Jackson, Detwiler

Advantage: Nationals

Though really, this is probably a push.  Much of the Nationals' numbers were accumulated with Strasburg, as were the Cardinals' without Carpenter.  But Carpenter is coming off an injury, and Wainwright hasn't had his best year, or anything close.  Further, Gonzalez has had his best year, with Zimmermann rounding back into the form he showed before getting injured.  Hence, advantage Nats.  Though, these two teams really were too close to tell, probably 1 & 2 for starters in the NL.  Washington has an edge in K/9, which they give back in BB/9.  Or, let's put it this way, the two teams' FIP ratings were 3.46 and 3.47.  Doesn't matter which is which.  For this particular set of matchups, I like Washington in games 1 - 3.

Bullpen
Motte, Boggs, Rzepczynski, Salas
vs
Clippard, Stammen, Mattheus, Burnett 

Advantage: Nationals

Again, this is probably a push.  If I were to rank these 8 players, I'd take Motte and Boggs, and then the four Washington guys.  So, it becomes something of a conundrum.  It's the postseason, so bullpens get pared down to the best, but the Cards will, inevitably, have to call on relievers other than Motte and Boggs, at which point they are at a disadvantage.  The Nats, however, go a full six or seven players deep in their pen.  The next two pitchers on the Nats' list, Storen and Gonzalez, were recently closers themselves.  If any of these games go extras, the Nationals will win that game.

Starting Lineup
Jay 8, Beltran 9, Holliday 7, Craig 3, Molina 2, Freese 5, Descalso 4, Kozma 6
vs
Werth 9, Harper 8, Zimmerman 5, LaRoche 3, Morse 7, Desmond 6, Espinosa 4, Suzuki 2 

Advantage: Cardinals

Once again, it's barely more than a push.  The Cards' offense led the NL in OBP at .338 (Nats at .322), but ranked just behind the Nats in SLG (.428 to .421).  The Nats were 2nd in HR in the NL with 194, while the Cards' 159 was middle of the pack.  But the Cards were 2nd in the NL in runs scored with 765, and the Nats were middle of the pack with 731.  Now, those margins aren't that big - about a HR every 4 games, and a run every 5, but they're noteworthy.  Both teams' offenses rated above average after park adjustment - STL's OPS+ rated 107, with Washington at 102.  Defensively, the Cards were slightly below average, while the Nats were slightly above.

Prediction: Nats in 3

Like I said, I like the Nationals' starting pitching matchups in those games, and, well, I just can't help but get behind the narrative brewing in DC.